Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 02:28 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts, with a significant concentration now reported around Cherkasy.
Overall Status (approx. 01:47 - 02:09 UTC - Incorporating Vanek & ZODA reports & AF updates):
Cherkasy Oblast:Major focus. 1 UAV reported heading towards Cherkasy city (02:03 UTC). Explosions reported on the outskirts (02:05 UTC). Subsequently, 14 UAVs reported circling the city (02:09 UTC), warning of potential significant AD activity or impacts. Previous: 8 UAVs east of Smila, 1 near Cherkasy city, 6 east of Cherkasy city (01:47 UTC). Explosions confirmed earlier (23:49 UTC).
Mykolaivskyi Vanek Detailed Update (approx. 01:47 UTC - Partially superseded):
Kirovohrad Oblast: 1 UAV west of Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
Poltava Oblast: 1 UAV circling south of Poltava city.
Sumy Oblast: 1 UAV circling near Velyka Pysarivka.
Air Force Summary (00:55 UTC - Partially superseded):
Multiple groups in Poltava Oblast moving SW.
Group from Mykolaiv Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
Multiple groups in Cherkasy Oblast, changing course constantly.
Group from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast.
UAV from Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast.
Previous Activity & Impacts:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert ended (01:32 UTC). Threat reported earlier west of the city (23:50 UTC). AD work confirmed.
Kryvyi Rih: Subjected to massive attacks earlier; significant destruction reported but no fatalities.
Mykolaiv Oblast: UAVs previously reported near Balovne and Yelanets (01:09 UTC), now new threats emerging towards Bereznehuvate and Pervomaisk (01:47 UTC).
Kropyvnytskyi: UAV previously near the city (00:32 UTC), now west of the city heading towards Cherkasy Oblast (01:47 UTC).
UGS Summary (as of 22:00 Local, March 25): Reported 764 Russian kamikaze drone attacks for the day.
Sumy Oblast: Launches reported by tactical aviation (01:59 UTC).
Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts (as of 22:00 Local, March 25).
Missile Threats: Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Air Defence Activity: Confirmed active earlier over Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (alert now ended), and Cherkasy (explosions reported 02:05 UTC, likely ongoing given UAV concentration). Active engagement previously reported near Balovne (Mykolaiv Oblast, 01:09 UTC).
Accidental Russian Munition Drops: ASTRA reports ongoing incidents (35 since start of 2025).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Ukrainian Advances (NW Belgorod Oblast - ISW Report, March 26, based on March 25 data): Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysis indicates Ukrainian forces have made advances in the northwestern part of Belgorod Oblast. Visual confirmation (maps) corresponds to this assessment.
Russian Advances (Kursk/Sumy Border - ISW Report, March 26, based on March 25 data): ISW reports Russian advances near the border areas adjacent to Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
Belgorod Oblast (Ukrainian Attacks):
Politotdelsky: Woman reported injured due to alleged Ukrainian attack (Governor Gladkov, 01:58 UTC).
Russian Information Operations (Kursk/Belgorod):
Kazachya Loknya (Kursk): TASS (02:03 UTC) disseminated Russian MoD video claiming Ukrainian forces used a local Orthodox church for storing fuel/ammunition and desecrated it. Aligns with narratives depicting UA forces negatively. Treat as potential propaganda.
Kursk (General): TASS (01:02 UTC) disseminated video testimony from an alleged local resident claiming Ukrainian soldiers threatened civilians in Kursk border areas. Treat as potential propaganda.
Sudzha (Kursk): TASS (23:03, 23:31, 23:41 UTC) continued narrative regarding an alleged Feb 1, 2025, Ukrainian missile strike on an orphanage.
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): Heavy fighting ongoing earlier. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village. ISW map (March 25 data) shows claimed Russian control.
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast): Russian report confirms RU control, claimed recaptured approx. two weeks ago. Heavy destruction, mining reported. Context: RU MoD claimed liberation on Mar 23.
Sudzha Area / Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 23:18 UTC) claim discovery of destroyed M2 Bradley in Pogrebki after alleged liberation of most of Sudzha border area.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction (Belgorod Oblast): Russian source provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle, claims heavy losses inflicted.
Russian Claims (General):
MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia).
MoD claimed routing Ukrainian forces near Kursk border, inflicting >260 casualties/24h.
Claimed capture of Ukrainian soldier near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast).
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction - UGS 22:00 Local, March 25): Ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing). Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery attacks.
III. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local, March 25 & ISW Report, March 26)
Overall: 183 combat clashes reported by UGS (as of 22:00 Local, March 25). High levels of Russian air, drone, and artillery strikes. ISW confirms continued Russian pressure on multiple axes.
Russian Armor Modifications & Tactics (Observation): Recent Russian-source imagery (Colonelcassad, 00:06 UTC) visually confirms widespread use of improvised "cope cages" and additional slat armor. Indicates tactical adaptation against top-attack munitions/drones. Damaged equipment visible despite modifications.
Russian Sniper Tactics vs. Drones: Russian source (Voin DV, 01:05 UTC) reports snipers from the 29th CAA are actively targeting Ukrainian heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") using thermal sights at night, claiming success. They also claim Ukrainian drones are treated with chemicals, necessitating distance after downing (Potential Hazard Note: Investigate claims of chemical treatment on downed drones).
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 Russian clashes repelled (Predtechyne, Bila Hora).
Toretsk Direction: 23 Russian attacks reported, focused near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Krymske; 2 ongoing. ISW reports Russian advances (based on March 25 data) NW of Toretsk, SE outskirts of Shcherbynivka, and near Oleksandropil.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes reported.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Mala Tokmachka. ISW reports Russian advances (based on March 25 geolocated footage) into southern Lobkove and central Stepove. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, and holding most of Stepove. Significant fighting reported near Mali Shcherbaky (ISW). Video evidence shows UA 128th Mtn Assault Bde drone strikes.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany. ISW map (March 25 data) shows significant fighting near Kozachi Laheri and Nova Kakhovka. Zaporizhzhia NPP remains in Russian-controlled territory.
IV. Other Significant Military Updates
Political/Strategic Context:
President Zelensky (reported 23:47 UTC) anticipates a "very short window" (1-3 months) between any ceasefire and a final agreement, expecting continuous Russian violations.
Moldova: Pro-Russian Gagauz leader Yevhenia Hutsul detained at Chisinau airport (approx. 00:31 UTC) related to alleged illicit Russian funding for the banned "Shor" party. Indicates potential regional countermeasures against Russian influence.
Russian Information Operations:
POW Abuse Claims: Colonelcassad (01:05 UTC) disseminated video testimony from an alleged returned Russian POW ("Zvon") claiming severe mistreatment by Ukrainian forces. Part of a recurring narrative. Potential propaganda. Verification required.
Ukrainian Mobilization: Colonelcassad (02:11 UTC) shared videos allegedly depicting "voluntary" mobilization in Ukraine, with analysis suggesting one potentially shows coercive methods. Aims to undermine Ukrainian mobilization efforts and morale. Potential propaganda.
Casualties: Updated count from March 24 Sumy strike: 106 injured (23 children). No fatalities reported in Kryvyi Rih from recent drone attacks despite major destruction. Civilian injury reported in Politotdelsky (Belgorod) from alleged UA strike.
SBU Activity: Confirmed detention of individual in Kryvyi Rih accused of plotting attack on TCC under Russian direction.
Equipment/Loss Claims & Technology:
Russian Developments: Russia claims development of the "Sifa" FPV drone for anti-UAV/helicopter roles (TASS, 00:31 UTC). Russian snipers reportedly adapting tactics to counter heavy Ukrainian drones (Voin DV, 01:05 UTC).
Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas, airfields, UAV CPs. Russian source claims Lancet strike destroyed Leopard tank (Pokrovsk). Ukrainian sources show drone strikes destroying Russian equipment/troops. Visual confirmation of UA strike on RU media personnel near Kupiansk (March 24). Confirmation of widespread Russian armor modifications.
Internal Russian Matters: General Shamarin (Head of Communications), accused of bribery, reportedly wants to join the SMO (TASS, 22:52 UTC). TASS pushing Sudzha narratives (orphanage, alleged UA threats). Russian MoD promoting narrative of UA forces misusing religious sites (Kazachya Loknya church).
V. Older Relevant Updates (6h - 3 days prior)
March 24 (19:16 UTC): Major attack on Sumy confirmed (school, residential buildings hit), ~90 injured (17 children); Widespread drone activity continued (Kyiv alert); Guided bomb launches (Donetsk, Kharkiv); Multiple journalist casualties confirmed (killed/injured); US-Russia talks in Riyadh concluded, joint statement pending.
March 24 (18:46 UTC): Reported fighting near Popovka (Belgorod, RU sources claim repulsed UA attack); Claimed RU advance near Rozovka (Donetsk); Continued widespread drone activity (new waves Zaporizhzhia); Ballistic missile launch from Crimea confirmed; Reported UA incendiary drone attacks (Belgorod).
March 24 (09:41 UTC): Ballistic missile threats; RU claims on Sudzha gas facility; UA drone strikes on RU oil infrastructure; Reported US-Russia talks; Reported UA gains near Dvorichna; Potential RU cyberattack claim on UA Railways.
March 24 (05:42 UTC): Strong UA claims (official sources) of HIMARS strike destroying 4 RU helicopters (2 Ka-52, 2 Mi-8) in Belgorod Oblast (verification pending); Continued drone attacks on Kyiv Oblast infrastructure; Continued fighting near Demidovka (Belgorod) with conflicting claims; Bridge destruction in Grafovka (Belgorod) confirmed; RU claims of intercepting 28 UA drones; Confirmed damage/casualty in Nikopol/Marhanets from RU strikes.
March 23 (21:12 UTC): Continued large-scale drone attack; Confirmation of destroyed bridges in Grafovka/Nadezhinka (Belgorod); Ukrainian/US negotiating teams met in Saudi Arabia; Claims of Russian strikes in Kherson Oblast; Claims Ukrainian forces did not fully capture Demidovka.
March 23 (17:02 UTC): Confirmed continued fighting in Demidovka (Belgorod); Russian claims of advances along DPR frontline; Ukrainian claims of civilian casualties in Donetsk Oblast; Death of Russian soldier reported.
March 23 (13:31 UTC): Significant UA drone resupply confirmed (380 units); RU ZU-23 use against drones reported; Ballistic missile threats (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava); Reported RU propaganda on Kyiv damage; Reported capture of RU soldier (potential forced conscription).
March 23 (12:02 UTC): Claimed RU artillery strike on Zaporizhzhia power substation (verification needed); Confirmed civilian casualties (father, 5-yr-old daughter) in Kyiv drone attack; RU drone attack on Kupyansk ("Molniya" drone); Reported RU assault attempt near Volchansk repelled.
March 23 (06:01 UTC): Major Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia (Rostov, Astrakhan); Significant casualties in Kyiv from RU drone attack; RU claims of Leopard destruction (Sumy); Intense fighting reported.
March 23 (04:03 UTC):REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE INTO SUMY OBLAST (56th VDV, Russian source, Urgent Verification Needed); Reported RU AD activity near Kupyansk (MANPADS vs UA helo); Confirmed 2 deaths in Kyiv drone attack; Claimed RU liberation of Sudzha (Verification Needed); Reported RU advance along Oskol reservoir; Report on RU "Geran" drone upgrades (CRPA antenna).
