Military Situation Update: March 26, 2025, 00:28 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts.
Overall Status (approx. 00:18 UTC - Incorporating Vanek & Air Force reports):
Mykolaiv Oblast: 1 UAV previously heading towards Mykolaiv city via Posad-Pokrovske has diverted towards Bashtanka. Potential Air Defence (AD) activity anticipated. (Update: 00:06, 00:18 UTC)
Kropyvnytskyi: 1 UAV approaching the city. Potential AD activity anticipated. (Update: 00:18 UTC)
Cherkasy Oblast: Threat remains active. 5 UAVs reported near the city (00:06 UTC), reduced to 2 UAVs near the city (00:18 UTC). Explosions were previously reported (23:49 UTC).
Kharkiv -> Poltava Oblast: Multiple groups moving. (Previous: 23:57 UTC)
Poltava Oblast: Multiple groups present. (Previous: 23:57 UTC)
Chernihiv -> Poltava Oblast: Group moving. (Previous: 23:57 UTC)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Multiple groups moving NW. (Previous: 23:57 UTC)
Kirovohrad Oblast: Multiple groups moving NW (besides the one near Kropyvnytskyi). (Previous: 23:57 UTC)
Kherson -> Mykolaiv Oblast: Group movement reported earlier (23:57 UTC), may correlate with the UAV now heading towards Bashtanka.
Previous Specific Updates (approx. 23:50 UTC - Mykolaivskyi Vanek):
Kherson Oblast: 1 UAV passed Daryivka towards Kherson city (potential AD work). Status unclear following diversion towards Bashtanka.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 2 new UAVs west of Zaporizhzhia city (AD work ongoing).
Kryvyi Rih: Subjected to massive attacks earlier; significant destruction reported but no fatalities. Russian sources claimed numerous hits. Multiple groups now reported moving NW through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (23:57 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Threat ongoing west of the city (23:50 UTC). AD work confirmed.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat shifted towards Bashtanka (00:18 UTC).
Kropyvnytskyi: New threat emerging (00:18 UTC).
Kherson Oblast: Threat status near Kherson city requires clarification following UAV diversion.
UGS Summary (as of 22:00 Local, March 25): Reported 764 Russian kamikaze drone attacks for the day.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts (as of 22:00 Local, March 25).
Missile Threats: Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Air Defence Activity: Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Cherkasy. Potential AD activity anticipated near Bashtanka, Kropyvnytskyi, and possibly Mykolaiv/Kherson earlier.
Accidental Russian Munition Drops: ASTRA reports ongoing incidents (35 since start of 2025).
II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Ongoing fighting reported earlier (22:00 UTC). Russian source detailed border clash. Artillery fire reported on Popovka.
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): Heavy fighting ongoing earlier. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village.
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast): Russian report confirms RU control, claimed recaptured approx. two weeks ago. Heavy destruction, mining reported. Context: RU MoD claimed liberation on Mar 23.
Sudzha Area / Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 23:18 UTC) claim discovery of destroyed M2 Bradley in Pogrebki after alleged liberation of most of Sudzha border area.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction (Belgorod Oblast): Russian source provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle, claims heavy losses inflicted.
Russian Claims (General):
MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia).
MoD claimed routing Ukrainian forces near Kursk border, inflicting >260 casualties/24h.
Claimed capture of Ukrainian soldier near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast).
TASS (23:03, 23:31, 23:41 UTC) continues narrative regarding an alleged Feb 1, 2025, Ukrainian missile strike on an orphanage in Sudzha. Claims >100 people could have been inside, rubble not cleared, but also that >30 people were evacuated to Kursk. Information dated, appears coordinated with current Sudzha operations narrative.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction - UGS 22:00 Local, March 25): Ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing). Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery attacks.
III. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local, March 25 & Other Sources)
Overall: 183 combat clashes reported by UGS (as of 22:00 Local, March 25). High levels of Russian air, drone, and artillery strikes.
Russian Armor Modifications & Tactics (Observation): Recent Russian-source imagery (Colonelcassad, 00:06 UTC) from unspecified front sectors (likely including Donetsk) visually confirms widespread use of improvised "cope cages" and additional slat armor on various platforms (T-80BVM, T-72/T-90 variants, BMP-2M with "Berezhok" module). This indicates tactical adaptation to counter top-attack munitions and drones. Images also depict damaged equipment despite these modifications, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities. The presence of tanks with dozer blades suggests potential engineering or fortification activities.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes reported.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, and holding most of Stepove. Video evidence shows UA 128th Mtn Assault Bde drone strikes.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.
IV. Other Significant Military Updates
Political/Strategic Context: President Zelensky (reported 23:47 UTC) stated there will be a "very short window of opportunity" (1-3 months) between a potential ceasefire and a final war-ending agreement, expecting Russia to continuously violate any ceasefire.
Casualties: Updated count from March 24 Sumy strike: 106 injured (23 children). No fatalities reported in Kryvyi Rih from recent drone attacks despite major destruction.
SBU Activity: Confirmed detention of individual in Kryvyi Rih accused of plotting attack on TCC under Russian direction.
Equipment/Loss Claims: Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas, airfields, UAV CPs. Russian source claims Lancet strike destroyed Leopard tank (Pokrovsk). Ukrainian sources (414th UAV Bde, 128th Mtn Assault Bde) show drone strikes destroying Russian equipment/troops. Visual confirmation of UA strike on RU media personnel near Kupiansk (March 24). Confirmation of Russian armor modifications (cope cages).
Internal Russian Matters: General Shamarin (Head of Communications), accused of bribery, reportedly wants to join the SMO (TASS, 22:52 UTC). TASS pushing Sudzha orphanage narrative (see Section II).
V. Older Relevant Updates (6h - 3 days prior)
March 23 (06:01 UTC): Major Ukrainian drone attack inside Russia (Rostov, Astrakhan); Significant casualties in Kyiv from RU drone attack; RU claims of Leopard destruction (Sumy); Intense fighting reported.
March 24 (09:41 UTC): Ballistic missile threats; RU claims on Sudzha gas facility; UA drone strikes on RU oil infrastructure; Reported US-Russia talks; Reported UA gains near Dvorichna; Potential RU cyberattack claim on UA Railways.
March 24 (05:42 UTC): Strong UA claims (official sources) of HIMARS strike destroying 4 RU helicopters (2 Ka-52, 2 Mi-8) in Belgorod Oblast (verification pending); Continued drone attacks on Kyiv Oblast infrastructure; Continued fighting near Demidovka (Belgorod) with conflicting claims; Bridge destruction in Grafovka (Belgorod) confirmed; RU claims of intercepting 28 UA drones; Confirmed damage/casualty in Nikopol/Marhanets from RU strikes.
March 23 (13:31 UTC): Significant UA drone resupply confirmed (380 units); RU ZU-23 use against drones reported; Ballistic missile threats (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava); Reported RU propaganda on Kyiv damage; Reported capture of RU soldier (potential forced conscription).
