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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-25 23:59:24Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-25 23:29:24Z)

Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 23:58 UTC

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

  • Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts.
    • Overall Status (approx. 23:57 UTC - Ukrainian Air Force):
      • Kharkiv -> Poltava Oblast: Multiple groups moving.
      • Poltava Oblast: Multiple groups present.
      • Chernihiv -> Poltava Oblast: Group moving.
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Multiple groups moving NW.
      • Kirovohrad Oblast: Multiple groups moving NW.
      • Cherkasy Oblast: Multiple groups present. Explosions reported in Cherkasy city (23:49 UTC) following earlier warning of UAV approach (23:37 UTC).
      • Kherson -> Mykolaiv Oblast: Group moving.
    • Specific Updates (approx. 23:50 UTC - Mykolaivskyi Vanek):
      • Kherson Oblast: 1 UAV passing Daryivka towards Kherson city (potential AD work).
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 2 new UAVs west of Zaporizhzhia city (AD work ongoing).
    • Previous Status Snapshot (approx. 23:25 UTC):
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: 1 UAV near Pravdino (threat to Korabelnyi district); 4 UAVs past Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh.
      • Kherson Oblast: 4 UAVs in Beryslav district.
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 3 UAVs in Kryvyi Rih district; 1 UAV north of Marhanets (N course).
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 1 new UAV south of Zaporizhzhia city (potential AD work).
      • Sumy/Kharkiv Oblast (Border): 9 UAVs from Belgorod (Russia) towards Velyka Pysarivka area.
      • Kharkiv/Poltava Oblast: 1 UAV moving from Poltava to Kharkiv Oblast.
      • Cherkasy Oblast: 2 UAVs near Smila; 8 UAVs east of Cherkasy; 1 UAV circling north of Cherkasy.
      • Poltava Oblast: 1 UAV west of Poltava.
      • Chernihiv Oblast: 6 UAVs near Pryluky (S course).
    • Ongoing/Recent Activity & Impacts:
      • Cherkasy: Explosions confirmed (23:49 UTC). Threat ongoing (23:57 UTC).
      • Kryvyi Rih: Subjected to massive attacks earlier; significant destruction reported but no fatalities. Russian sources claimed numerous hits. 3 UAVs remained in the district as of 23:25 UTC; multiple groups now reported moving NW through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (23:57 UTC).
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Threat ongoing west of the city (23:50 UTC). AD work confirmed.
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: Threat ongoing towards Novyi Buh and potentially Korabelnyi district (23:25 UTC); additional group moving from Kherson (23:57 UTC).
      • Kherson Oblast: Threat ongoing in Beryslav district (23:25 UTC) and near Kherson city (23:50 UTC).
      • UGS Summary (as of 22:00 Local): Reported 764 Russian kamikaze drone attacks for the day.
  • Ukrainian UAV Activity (Inside Russia):
    • Belgorod (City): Explosions reported earlier (22:32 UTC). Russian sources claimed AD activity.
  • Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts (as of 22:00 Local).
  • Missile Threats: Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
  • Air Defence Activity: Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Cherkasy. Potential AD activity near Mykolaiv and Kherson cities.
  • Accidental Russian Munition Drops: ASTRA reports ongoing incidents (35 since start of 2025).

II. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)

  • Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Ongoing fighting reported earlier (22:00 UTC). Russian source detailed border clash. Artillery fire reported on Popovka.
  • Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): Heavy fighting ongoing earlier. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village.
  • Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast): Russian report confirms RU control, claimed recaptured approx. two weeks ago. Heavy destruction, mining reported. Context: RU MoD claimed liberation on Mar 23.
  • Sudzha Area / Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 23:18 UTC) claim discovery of destroyed M2 Bradley in Pogrebki after alleged liberation of most of Sudzha border area.
  • Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction (Belgorod Oblast): Russian source provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle, claims heavy losses inflicted.
  • Russian Claims (General):
    • MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia).
    • MoD claimed routing Ukrainian forces near Kursk border, inflicting >260 casualties/24h.
    • Claimed capture of Ukrainian soldier near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast).
    • TASS (23:03, 23:31, 23:41 UTC) continues narrative regarding an alleged Feb 1, 2025, Ukrainian missile strike on an orphanage in Sudzha. Claims >100 people could have been inside, rubble not cleared, but also that >30 people were evacuated to Kursk. Information dated, appears coordinated with current Sudzha operations narrative.
  • Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction - UGS 22:00 Local): Ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing). Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery attacks.

III. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local & Other Sources)

  • Overall: 183 combat clashes reported by UGS (as of 22:00 Local). High levels of Russian air, drone, and artillery strikes.
  • Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks (Vovchansk, Tykhe, Kamianka); 1 ongoing. KAB strike on Zolochiv.
  • Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled (Zahryzove, Petropavlivka). Ukrainian source (Butusov, 23:28 UTC) provided visual confirmation/geolocation of a successful Ukrainian missile strike on March 24 near Kupiansk targeting Russian media personnel. Russian sources previously claimed gains near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka.
  • Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks (multiple locations); 6 ongoing.
  • Siversk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled (Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka); 1 ongoing.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: 2 Russian clashes repelled (Predtechyne, Bila Hora).
  • Toretsk Direction: 23 Russian attacks reported, focused near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Krymske; 2 ongoing.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Highest Intensity. 68 Russian attempts (multiple locations); 4 clashes ongoing. UGS claims significant Russian losses today: 361 casualties (190 KIA), 1 tank, 9 vehicles, 5 motorcycles, 2 UAV CPs destroyed. Russian source claims Lancet strike destroyed a Leopard tank.
  • Novopavlivsk Direction: 18 Russian assaults stopped (Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiia, Kostiantynopil); 3 ongoing. Airstrike on Komar.
  • Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes reported.
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, and holding most of Stepove. Video evidence shows UA 128th Mtn Assault Bde drone strikes.
  • Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.

IV. Other Significant Military Updates

  • Political/Strategic Context: President Zelensky (reported 23:47 UTC) stated there will be a "very short window of opportunity" (1-3 months) between a potential ceasefire and a final war-ending agreement, expecting Russia to continuously violate any ceasefire.
  • Casualties: Updated count from March 24 Sumy strike: 106 injured (23 children). No fatalities reported in Kryvyi Rih from recent drone attacks despite major destruction.
  • SBU Activity: Confirmed detention of individual in Kryvyi Rih accused of plotting attack on TCC under Russian direction.
  • Equipment/Loss Claims: Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas, airfields, UAV CPs. Russian source claims Lancet strike destroyed Leopard tank (Pokrovsk). Ukrainian sources (414th UAV Bde, 128th Mtn Assault Bde) show drone strikes destroying Russian equipment/troops. Visual confirmation of UA strike on RU media personnel near Kupiansk (March 24).
  • Ukrainian Logistics/Support: Volunteer efforts ongoing.
  • Internal Russian Matters: General Shamarin (Head of Communications), accused of bribery, reportedly wants to join the SMO (TASS, 22:52 UTC). TASS pushing Sudzha orphanage narrative (see Section II).

V. Older Relevant Updates (6h - 3 days prior)

  • March 23 (06:01 UTC):
    • Major Ukrainian drone attack reported inside Russia (Rostov, Astrakhan). Russia claimed 59 interceptions.
    • Significant damage and casualties (3 killed incl. child, 10 injured reported) in Kyiv from overnight Russian drone attack.
    • Russian claims of Leopard 2A6 destruction near Petrushevka (Sumy Oblast).
    • Intense fighting reported across multiple fronts, high levels of Russian strikes.
    • Reported fighting near Solenoe (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeisk direction).
  • March 24 (09:41 UTC):
    • Ballistic missile threat reported for multiple regions.
    • Zaporizhzhia air raid alert (later lifted).
    • Reported Russian claims of control over "GIS Sudzha" gas facility.
    • Reported Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station, potential fire at Sudzha gas station).
    • Reported US-Russia talks ongoing, potential focus on ceasefire/de-escalation (e.g., attacks on energy infrastructure). Ukraine-US talks planned to follow.
    • Reported Ukrainian gains near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast).
    • Potential Russian cyberattack claim targeting Ukrainian Railways military transport data.
Previous (2025-03-25 23:29:24Z)

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