Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 21:58 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Context
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium: The 30-day agreement (effective Mar 18) remains formally active, though the Russian MoD accuses Ukraine of violating its spirit with continued UAV strikes during talks. Russian actions (continued Shahed attacks, including on Kryvyi Rih) are seen by Ukrainian sources as violating the spirit of any potential peace initiatives.
US-Russia Dialogue: Contradictory reports exist regarding recent US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia concerning a potential Black Sea ceasefire linked to sanctions relief. Former President Trump indicated progress, while Kremlin spokesman Peskov initially denied talks occurred. A later Russian MoD statement implicitly confirmed talks took place on March 24.
Ukrainian Position: President Zelenskyy rejects linking Black Sea safety to sanctions relief, accuses Russia of manipulation, reiterates distrust, and highlights US support. He states Russia's actions in the coming days are critical. Zelenskyy's position is seen by Russian MFA Lavrov as indicating his "days are numbered."
Russian Position: President Putin acknowledged troop rotation challenges. The Russian MFA declared the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a "Russian nuclear object" with control transfer deemed "impossible". The MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia) and routing Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border area. Trump envoy Grenell asserted former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine belonged to Moscow. MFA Lavrov commented extensively, criticizing US President Biden, European politicians (calling those opposing Nord Stream restoration "sick people or suicides"), Zelenskyy, and emphasizing the shift away from the US dollar.
US Assessment (CIA Director Ratcliffe): Acknowledged Russian battlefield advantage and slow progress but emphasized strong Ukrainian will to resist unacceptable peace terms ("fight with bare hands"). Noted President Trump's view that successful peace talks imply neither side achieves maximalist goals.
Germany: President Steinmeier has formally dismissed the government led by Chancellor Scholz following the convocation of the new Bundestag. The Scholz cabinet will continue in a caretaker capacity until a new government, expected to be led by Friedrich Merz (CDU), is formed, potentially by April 20.
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport; Moldovan bloc "Pobeda" alleges lack of grounds.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts.
Kryvyi Rih: Subjected to massive, multi-wave attacks throughout the evening from north, south, and east. Intense air defense reported. Ukrainian officials (Vilkul) reported at least 15-20 explosions and fires earlier. Visual evidence confirms multiple fires/explosions. Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok) also report >15 explosions. Threat renewed: Latest updates (21:45-21:54 UTC) show new UAV(s) approaching the city from the east. Anti-drone activity may be heard.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAV movement reported earlier. New threat: Latest update (21:47 UTC) indicates a new UAV moving towards/through Zaporizhzhia city. Anti-drone activity possible.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Groups active earlier. Current reports show UAV near Pavlohrad.
Mykolaiv Oblast: UAV reported moving from Kherson Oblast earlier. UAV reported near Kazanka (bordering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Russian source (Kotenok) claims explosions heard in Mykolaiv city.
Sumy Oblast: Groups reported moving south earlier. Group reported north of Konotop moving south. Russian source (Kotenok) claims explosions heard in Sumy Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast: Groups reported on border moving south earlier. Multiple groups reported moving south.
Cherkasy Oblast: UAV reported near Smila earlier, moving west.
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAV reported on border with Cherkasy Oblast moving west earlier.
Kharkiv Oblast: Multiple groups active earlier.
Poltava Oblast: Group moving SW earlier.
Black Sea: Activity reported earlier towards Odesa/Mykolaiv.
Overall: UGS reported 764 Russian kamikaze drone attacks for the day (up to 22:00 Local). Latest UAV locations (approx. 21:58 UTC) include: approaching Kryvyi Rih from East, approaching Zaporizhzhia, near Kazanka (Mykolaiv), near Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk), near Smila (Cherkasy), north of Konotop (Sumy, moving south), multiple groups in Chernihiv/Sumy moving south, continued presence in Belgorod.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts.
Missile Threats: Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Air Defence Activity: Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Reports of anti-drone work expected/possible in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia due to new incoming UAVs. Ukrainian volunteer sources report repair of thermal imager for Stinger MANPADS team.
Accidental Russian Munition Drops: ASTRA reports ongoing incidents (35 since start of 2025) of Russian aircraft accidentally dropping ordnance on Russian/occupied territory.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): Heavy fighting ongoing. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village, RU artillery firing on it. Situation described as unchanged since yesterday by one source, implying RU difficulties.
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Ongoing fighting. Russian source details border clash involving RU border guards and alleged UA SSO, acknowledging RU losses. Artillery fire reported on Popovka where UA forces are present.
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast): Russian report (Colonelcassad) confirms RU control, claimed recaptured approx. two weeks ago by Akhmat/30th Regt after alleged 7-month UA occupation. Report details heavy destruction, extensive mining/UXO presence, and claims UA used church as stronghold. This corroborates earlier RU MoD claims of liberation.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction (Belgorod Oblast): Russian source provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle, claiming involvement of multiple brigades and heavy losses inflicted by RU Group "North".
Russian Claim (Soldier Capture): Russian source claims capture of Ukrainian soldier (Volodymyr Koval, 129th TerO Bde) near Guyevo (Sudzha area, Kursk Oblast) by elements of RU 22nd MRR.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction): UGS reports ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing). Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery (208 shellings) attacks on UA positions. UA source previously claimed successful raid into Demydovka.
Russian Claims (Kursk Direction): MoD Russia claims routing Ukrainian forces, inflicting >260 casualties in 24 hours.
IV. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local & Other Sources)
Overall: 183 combat clashes reported by UGS since start of day. High levels of Russian air, drone, and artillery strikes continue.
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled (Zahryzove, Petropavlivka). Russian sources claim regaining control of Dvurechna and advances near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka. Video purports to show Lancet destroying UA 2S1 Gvozdika. Video purports to show RU KIA near Kupiansk.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes reported.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, and holding most of Stepove despite UA counterattacks.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.
V. Other Significant Updates
Casualties: Updated count from the March 24 Russian missile strike on Sumy rises to 106 injured, including 23 children.
SBU Activity: Confirmed detention of an individual in Kryvyi Rih accused of plotting an attack on a TCC under Russian direction. Zelenskyy congratulated SBU on their professional day, highlighting successes. Ukrainian source (Butusov) praises SBU's effectiveness against FSB, mentioning Kirilov elimination, Kerch Bridge, deep drone strikes.
Equipment/Loss Claims: Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas, airfields, UAV CPs, etc. Russian source (Colonelcassad) claims Lancet strike destroyed a Leopard tank (Pokrovsk direction) and reiterates claim of 47 Leopard variants hit by Lancets during the war. Ukrainian source (414th UAV Bde "Ptakhy Madyara") posts video showing destruction of Russian equipment.
Ukrainian Logistics/Support: Ukrainian volunteer sources report delivering tires for medical vehicles and medical supplies to the "Akhilles" regiment, facilitated by volunteer funds and partners (including from Poland). Also reported repair of thermal imager for Stinger MANPADS team.
Internal Russian Matters: Athlete Vladimir Vanyan reportedly detained by special forces after criticizing SVO/FSB; forced apology video released.
