Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 21:28 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Context
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium: The 30-day agreement (effective Mar 18) remains formally active, though the Russian MoD accuses Ukraine of violating its spirit with continued UAV strikes during talks.
US-Russia Dialogue: Contradictory reports exist regarding recent US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia concerning a potential Black Sea ceasefire linked to sanctions relief. Former President Trump indicated progress, while Kremlin spokesman Peskov initially denied talks occurred. A later Russian MoD statement implicitly confirmed talks took place on March 24.
Ukrainian Position: President Zelenskyy rejects linking Black Sea safety to sanctions relief, accuses Russia of manipulation, reiterates distrust, and highlights US support. He states Russia's actions in the coming days are critical.
Russian Position: President Putin acknowledged troop rotation challenges. The Russian MFA declared the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a "Russian nuclear object" with control transfer deemed "impossible". The MoD claimed liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia) and routing Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border area. Trump envoy Grenell asserted former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine belonged to Moscow. Lavrov commented on European positions.
US Assessment (CIA Director Ratcliffe): Acknowledged Russian battlefield advantage and slow progress but emphasized strong Ukrainian will to resist unacceptable peace terms ("fight with bare hands"). Noted President Trump's view that successful peace talks imply neither side achieves maximalist goals.
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport; Moldovan bloc "Pobeda" alleges lack of grounds.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Intense Widespread Russian UAV Attacks (Shahed-type): High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts.
Kryvyi Rih: Subjected to massive, multi-wave attacks throughout the evening from north and south. Intense air defense reported. Ukrainian officials (Vilkul) reported at least 15-20 explosions and fires. Threat subsided temporarily around 20:53 UTC but new groups reported approaching later. Latest update (21:28 UTC) shows UAVs south of the city and near Kazanka (Mykolaiv Oblast).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAV movement towards Zaporizhzhia city, westwards, and on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported earlier. Later reports show groups moving from Zaporizhzhia into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Groups active, moving north towards Kryvyi Rih earlier. Later reports show groups moving from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, including one near Pavlohrad.
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAVs moving west; groups entered earlier. Later report shows UAV on border with Cherkasy Oblast.
Chernihiv/Sumy Oblasts: Groups reported on border moving south.
Kharkiv Oblast: Multiple groups active earlier.
Poltava Oblast: Group moving SW earlier. Later report shows UAV near Smila (Cherkasy Oblast).
Mykolaiv/Kherson Oblasts: Groups moved NW earlier. Later report shows UAV on border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Black Sea: Activity reported earlier towards Odesa/Mykolaiv.
Overall: UGS reported 764 Russian kamikaze drone attacks for the day. Latest UAV locations (approx. 21:28 UTC) include south of Kryvyi Rih, near Kazanka, near Pavlohrad, near Smila, north of Konotop (moving south), and continued presence in Belgorod.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs): Activity reported earlier (SE, NE). UGS reported 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs across various fronts (Zolochiv, Pokrovsk area, Serhiivka, Novoserhiivka, Sukhyi Yar, Pokrovsk, Chunyshyne, Komar, Huliaipole area, Mala Tokmachka, Prydniprovsky area, Kursk direction).
Missile Threats: Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Air Defence Activity: Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Accidental Russian Munition Drops: ASTRA reports ongoing incidents (35 since start of 2025) of Russian aircraft accidentally dropping ordnance on Russian/occupied territory, including 7 FAB drops (Mar 21-24) in Belgorod Oblast and occupied Luhansk Oblast.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): Heavy fighting ongoing. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village, RU artillery firing on it. Situation described as unchanged since yesterday by one source, implying RU difficulties.
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Ongoing fighting. Russian source details border clash involving RU border guards and alleged UA SSO, acknowledging RU losses. Artillery fire reported on Popovka where UA forces are present.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction (Belgorod Oblast): Russian source provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle, claiming involvement of multiple brigades (225th Assault, 47th Mech, 33rd Assault, 24th "Aidar", GUR/SSO/RDK, 414th UAV, elements of 22nd, 61st Mech, 17th Heavy Mech). Claims heavy losses inflicted by RU Group "North".
Russian Claim (Soldier Capture): Russian source claims capture of Ukrainian soldier (Volodymyr Koval, 129th TerO Bde) near Guyevo (Sudzha area, Kursk Oblast) by elements of RU 22nd MRR.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction): UGS reports ongoing operations, repelling 28 Russian assaults (3 ongoing). Reports significant RU air (15 strikes/19 KABs) and artillery (208 shellings) attacks on UA positions. UA source previously claimed successful raid into Demydovka.
Russian Claims (Kursk Direction): MoD Russia claims routing Ukrainian forces, inflicting >260 casualties in 24 hours.
IV. Frontline Activity (Based on UGS Report 22:00 Local & Other Sources)
Overall: 183 combat clashes reported by UGS since start of day. High levels of Russian air, drone, and artillery strikes continue.
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled (Zahryzove, Petropavlivka). Russian sources claim regaining control of Dvurechna and advances near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka. Video purports to show Lancet destroying UA 2S1 Gvozdika. Video purports to show RU KIA near Kupiansk.
Lyman Direction: 24 Russian attacks (multiple locations incl. Yampolivka, Nadiia, Kopanky); 6 ongoing. Older claim (Mar 23) of UA recapture of Nadiya not confirmed; current report notes RU attacks near Nadiia.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes reported.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources claim advances north of Zherebianky, within Lobkove, and holding most of Stepove despite UA counterattacks; acknowledge strong UA drone activity. Older claim (Mar 24) noted fighting starting for Lobkove.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.
V. Other Significant Updates
Casualties: Updated count from the March 24 Russian missile strike on Sumy rises to 106 injured, including 23 children.
SBU Activity: Confirmed detention of an individual in Kryvyi Rih accused of plotting an attack on a TCC under Russian direction. Zelenskyy congratulated SBU on their professional day, highlighting successes like the elimination of Russian General Kirilov, the Kerch Bridge attack, and deep drone strikes into Russia. Ukrainian sources (Butusov) praise SBU's effectiveness against FSB.
Equipment/Loss Claims: Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas, airfields, UAV CPs, etc. Russian source (Colonelcassad) claims Lancet drones have hit 47 Leopard tanks (various models) during the conflict, providing compilation video. Ukrainian source (414th UAV Bde "Ptakhy Madyara") posts video showing destruction of Russian equipment, sarcastically referencing Russian propaganda about "Ukrainian crematoria".
Internal Russian Matters: Athlete Vladimir Vanyan reportedly detained by special forces after criticizing SVO/FSB; forced apology video released.
