Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 20:58 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Developments
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium:
The 30-day moratorium (effective March 18) on attacks against listed energy infrastructure remains formally active. Violations nullify obligations. Extension requires mutual consent.
Russian MoD accuses Kyiv of violating the spirit of talks by continuing UAV strikes on Russian energy infrastructure during negotiations (while acknowledging talks occurred, contradicting earlier Peskov denial).
Former President Trump reported "big progress" in Saudi Arabia talks, confirming US consideration of Russian conditions for sanctions relief in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire. Third-party monitoring discussed.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov previously denied reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia (contradictory information). Russian MoD statement now implicitly confirms talks occurred on March 24.
Accuses Russia of manipulating agreement terms, rejecting linkage of Black Sea safety to sanctions relief. Cites US support.
States Russia's behavior (air raids, Black Sea activity, threats) in the coming days will be critical. Warns new measures against Moscow may be needed.
Reiterates distrust of Russia, stating they must prove readiness for peace and stop "lying to the world, to President Trump, and to America."
Highlights SBU successes, frontline briefings with C-in-C Syrskyi, and priority of returning citizens/children.
Acknowledges US assistance and constructive teamwork.
President Putin acknowledged troop rotation challenges, managed by MoD. Promised restoration in Kursk Oblast for damage attributed to Ukraine.
Russian MFA declared Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a "Russian nuclear object"; transfer of control "impossible".
Russian MoD claims liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk Oblast) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Claims routing Ukrainian forces in Kursk border area (>260 casualties claimed in 24h).
Source Attribution: Basurin o glavnom, RBK-Ukraina, MoD Russia.
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport. Moldovan block "Pobeda" claims detention lacked grounds and violated rights.
Source Attribution: TASS.
US Assessment (CIA Director Ratcliffe):
Acknowledges Russia's battlefield advantage and slow progress.
States Ukrainian people/military are underestimated and will resist fiercely if peace terms are unacceptable ("fight with bare hands"). Reiterated by multiple Ukrainian sources.
Notes President Trump's view that successful peace talks likely mean neither side achieves maximalist goals.
High intensity continues across multiple Oblasts. Current confirmed activity/movement reported (as of 20:49 UTC):
Kryvyi Rih: Multiple groups attacked from south and north throughout the evening. Intense air defense engagement reported. Threat appears to have subsided temporarily as of 20:53 UTC.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: UAV moving towards Zaporizhzhia city from south; another group moving west; group on border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Groups moving from Kherson/Mykolaiv earlier; group currently moving north towards Kryvyi Rih.
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAV moving west. Groups entered earlier from Dnipropetrovsk and Cherkasy Oblasts.
Kharkiv Oblast: Multiple groups active earlier, changing course.
Poltava Oblast: Group moving SW earlier.
Sumy Oblast: Groups reported on Sumy/Kharkiv border earlier.
Mykolaiv/Kherson Oblasts: Groups moved NW towards Dnipropetrovsk earlier.
Black Sea: Activity reported earlier towards Odesa/Mykolaiv.
Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports 764 kamikaze drone attacks by Russia today.
Activity reported earlier in South-East and North-East directions.
UGS reports 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs today across various fronts (Zolochiv, Pokrovsk area, Serhiivka, Novoserhiivka, Sukhyi Yar, Pokrovsk, Chunyshyne, Komar, Huliaipole area, Mala Tokmachka, Prydniprovsky area, Kursk direction).
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force, Zaporizhzhia OVA, UGS.
Missile Threats:
Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force.
Air Defence Activity:
Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih throughout the evening.
Confirmed active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast earlier.
Source Attribution: Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, Ukrainian Air Force.
Accidental Russian Munition Drops:
ASTRA reports at least 35 incidents (33 FAB, 2 UMPB bombs, 3 missiles) of Russian aircraft accidentally dropping ordnance on Russian territory (Belgorod Oblast) or occupied Ukrainian territory since start of 2025. Includes 7 incidents (FABs) between Mar 21-24 near Khvostovka, Proletarsky, Pushkarnoye, Domnino, Makiivka, Pulyaevka, Politotdelsky. No casualties/damage reported in these specific incidents.
Source Attribution: ASTRA.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Belgorod Oblast (Demydovka / Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction / Popovka):
Demydovka: Heavy fighting ongoing. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village; RU artillery firing on village. Source (Alex Parker Returns) states situation unchanged since yesterday, implies lack of RU reserves.
Popovka: Ongoing fighting reported. Russian source (NgP raZVedka) provides detailed narrative of border clash: claims 11 RU border guards faced 10 UA SSO + support, resisted, called fire on self, were reinforced/extracted by 128th Bde elements; acknowledges RU losses. Disputes earlier "Mash" report. Source (Alex Parker Returns) states RU artillery firing on Popovka where UA forces are present.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction: Russian source (Colonelcassad) provides alleged Ukrainian Order of Battle near Krasnoyaruzhsky border: 225th Assault Reg, 47th Mech Bde (incl. Strike Drone Co), 33rd Assault Reg, 24th Assault Bn "Aidar", GUR/SSO (incl. RDK elements), 414th UAV Bde ("Ptakhy Madyara"), elements of 22nd, 61st Mech, 17th Heavy Mech Bdes. Claims heavy losses inflicted by RU Group "North".
Russian Claim (Soldier Capture): Russian source (Colonelcassad) claims capture of Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr Vasyliovych Koval (b. 1981, 129th TerO Bde) near Guyevo (Sudzha area) by elements of RU 22nd MRR (44th AC, Group "North").
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction): UGS reports Ukrainian operations continue. Claims 28 Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions today (3 ongoing). Reports 15 Russian air strikes (19 KABs) and 208 artillery shellings (5 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions in the area today. UA source (Butusov Plus/225th Assault Reg) previously claimed raid into Demydovka, destroying RU Bn HQ, eliminating deputy commander.
Russian Claims (Kursk Direction): MoD Russia claims routing Ukrainian forces, inflicting >260 casualties, destroying equipment in past 24 hours.
Source Attribution: Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Butusov Plus, Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor, Dva Mayora, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, UGS, NgP raZVedka.
IV. Frontline Activity (Ukrainian General Staff Report as of 22:00 Local Time & Other Sources)
Overall Intensity: UGS reports 183 combat clashes since start of day. Russian forces conducted 84 air strikes (129 KABs), 764 kamikaze drone attacks, 4106 artillery/mortar shellings.
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks (Vovchansk, Tykhe, towards Kamianka); 1 ongoing. KAB strike on Zolochiv.
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled (Zahryzove, Petropavlivka). Russian sources (Rybar) claim regaining control of Dvurechna and advances near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka. Russian source (Colonelcassad) shows video of Lancet destroying alleged UA 2S1 Gvozdika.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes on Ternove, Novopil, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes (KABs/NARs) on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Rybar) claim advances north of Zherebianky (429th MRR cited), advances within Lobkove, holding most of Stepove despite UA counterattacks; situation in Shcherbaky proper unclear. Acknowledge strong UA drone activity ("Baba Yaga").
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.
V. Casualty and Other Updates
Sumy Attack (Mar 24): Updated casualty count from the missile strike has risen to 106 injured, including 23 children.
Source Attribution: Sumy City Council via Operativno ZSU.
SBU Activity: SBU confirmed detention of individual (alleged former Azov fighter, MMA fighter Valentyn Pidkovych) in Kryvyi Rih, accused of plotting attack on TCC (Recruitment Center) under Russian direction. Zelenskyy congratulated SBU on their professional day.
Source Attribution: RVvoenkor, SBU (via sources).
Russian Military Claims: MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas (previous update), airfields, UAV CPs, ammo depots, repair bases. Showcased artillery footage.
Russian Unit Recognition: Russian Presidential decrees (reportedly dated March 25, 2025) award honorary "Guards" title to 140th & 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigades, and 89th Sapper Regiment. Future date requires verification.
Internal Russian Matter: Russian athlete Vladimir Vanyan reportedly detained by special forces after criticizing SVO/FSB in a stream; forced apology video released.
