Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 20:28 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Developments
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium:
The 30-day moratorium (effective March 18) on attacks against listed energy infrastructure (Oil refineries/pipelines/storage; Electricity generation/transmission; NPPs; Hydro dams) remains formally active. Violation by one party nullifies obligations. Extension requires mutual consent.
Russian MoD accuses Kyiv of violating the spirit of talks by continuing UAV strikes on Russian energy infrastructure during negotiations.
Former President Trump reported "big progress" in Saudi Arabia talks, confirming US consideration of Russian conditions (5-6 cited) for sanctions relief in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire. Third-party monitoring is reportedly part of discussions.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov previously denied reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week (contradictory information).
Accuses Russia of manipulating agreement terms, rejecting linkage of Black Sea safety to sanctions relief. Cites US support for Ukraine's position.
States Russia's behavior (air raids, Black Sea activity, threats) in the coming days will be critical. Warns new measures against Moscow may be needed if negative actions continue.
Reiterates distrust of Russia, stating they must prove readiness for peace and stop "lying to the world, to President Trump, and to America."
Highlights SBU successes and frontline briefings with Commander Syrskyi. Mentions return of citizens/children as a priority.
Acknowledges US assistance and constructive team work.
President Putin acknowledged troop rotation challenges, managed by MoD based on "realities". Promised restoration in Kursk Oblast for damage attributed to Ukraine, accusing Ukraine of destroying cultural/religious sites.
Russian MFA declared Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) a "Russian nuclear object" with transfer of control deemed "impossible".
Russian MoD claims liberation of Mirnoye (Donetsk Oblast) and Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
Source Attribution: Basurin o glavnom, RBK-Ukraina, MoD Russia.
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport for 72 hours by Moldova's anti-corruption center.
Source Attribution: TASS.
US Assessment (CIA Director Ratcliffe):
Acknowledges Russia's battlefield advantage and slow progress.
States Ukrainian people/military have been underestimated and will resist fiercely if peace terms are unacceptable.
Notes President Trump's view that successful peace talks would likely mean neither side achieves maximalist goals.
Activity reported in South-East and North-East directions.
UGS reports 84 Russian air strikes using 129 KABs today across various fronts (Zolochiv, Pokrovsk area, Komar, Huliaipole area, Mala Tokmachka, Prydniprovsky area, Kursk direction).
Three Russian strikes reported specifically on frontline settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast earlier.
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force, Zaporizhzhia OVA, UGS.
Missile Threats:
Missile danger alert issued earlier for Chernihiv Oblast.
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force.
Air Defence Activity:
Confirmed active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast earlier.
Confirmed active over Kryvyi Rih currently.
Source Attribution: Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, Ukrainian Air Force.
Accidental Russian Munition Drops:
ASTRA reports at least 35 incidents (33 FAB, 2 UMPB bombs, 3 missiles) of Russian aircraft accidentally dropping ordnance on Russian territory (Belgorod Oblast) or occupied Ukrainian territory since start of 2025. Includes 7 incidents (FABs) between Mar 21-24 near Khvostovka, Proletarsky, Pushkarnoye, Domnino, Makiivka, Pulyaevka, Politotdelsky. No casualties/damage reported in these specific incidents.
Source Attribution: ASTRA.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Belgorod Oblast (Demydovka / Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction / Popovka):
Demydovka: Heavy and ongoing fighting reported. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold some houses but not the village; efforts to dislodge them ongoing. Poor weather hindering air support. Russian source (Alex Parker Returns) claims RU artillery firing on village where UA forces are present, situation unchanged, implies lack of RU reserves.
Popovka: Russian sources claim repelling a Ukrainian SSO raid near Popovka and pushing forces back. Another Russian source (NgP raZVedka) provides a detailed counter-narrative: claims 11 RU border guards faced 10 UA SSO + support, resisted fiercely, called fire on self, were reinforced/extracted by 128th Bde elements, acknowledges RU losses among guards/reinforcements. Disputes earlier "Mash" report exaggerating UA numbers and claiming RU forces were abandoned.
Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction: Russian sources claim readiness to repel attacks, state recent UA ground activity ceased after artillery fire.
Grafovka/Prilesye: Russian sources report continued Ukrainian infantry activity nearby.
Ukrainian Claims (Kursk Direction): UGS reports Ukrainian operations continue. Claims 28 Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions today, 3 ongoing. Reports 15 Russian air strikes (19 KABs) and 208 artillery shellings (5 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions in the area today. Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus/225th Assault Reg) previously claimed successful raid into Demydovka, destroying RU Bn HQ, eliminating deputy commander (Maj. Yuri Lomkin).
Russian Claims (Kursk Direction): MoD Russia claims routing Ukrainian forces, inflicting >260 casualties, destroying equipment in past 24 hours.
Source Attribution: Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Butusov Plus, Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor, Dva Mayora, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, UGS, NgP raZVedka.
Kursk Oblast:
Putin addressed the situation, promising restoration.
Russian charity fund reported delivering Mavic drones (3T/3Pro) to Russian paratroopers operating in the area.
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) highlighted alleged severe health consequences for Russian soldiers from Sudzha gas pipeline operation ("Operation Potok"), linking it to a public event in Yekaterinburg.
Source Attribution: Basurin o glavnom, Dva Mayora, Butusov Plus.
IV. Frontline Activity (Ukrainian General Staff Report as of 22:00 Local Time & Other Sources)
Overall Intensity: UGS reports 183 combat clashes since start of day. 84 air strikes (129 KABs), 764 kamikaze drones, 4106 artillery/mortar shellings by Russian forces.
Kharkiv Direction: 4 Russian attacks (Vovchansk, Tykhe, towards Kamianka); 1 ongoing. KAB strike on Zolochiv.
Kupiansk Direction: 5 Russian assaults (Zahryzove, Petropavlivka); all repelled. Russian sources (Rybar) claim regaining control of Dvurechna and advances near Kamenka/Mala Shapkovka. Russian source (Colonelcassad) shows video of Lancet destroying alleged UA 2S1 Gvozdika.
Huliaipole Direction: 1 Russian attack near Pryvilne repelled. Airstrikes on Ternove, Novopil, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Russian attempts (near Kaminske, towards Lobkove, Stepove); 6 ongoing. Airstrikes (KABs/NARs) on Mala Tokmachka. Russian MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki. Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Rybar) claim advances north of Zherebianky (429th MRR cited), advances within Lobkove, holding most of Stepove despite UA counterattacks; situation in Shcherbaky proper unclear. Acknowledge strong UA drone activity ("Baba Yaga").
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 clash reported. Russian airstrikes on Vesele, Oleksandrivka, Dudchany.
South Donetsk Direction (Vuhledar area - Older Report Context): UA TG "Vuhledar" previously reported repelling 187 Russian assaults (Mar 18-24) with significant claimed RU losses.
General Drone Operations: Various sources show footage of both sides using FPV/reconnaissance drones for strikes and surveillance. Russian source (Dva Mayora) appeal from 33rd MRR storm detachments highlights need for drones/batteries. Ukrainian 112th TRO reportedly used FPVs to repel assault.
V. Other Noteworthy Items
Russian Military Claims: MoD claims strikes on 148 UA concentration areas (previous daily update) and recent strikes on UA airfields, UAV CPs, ammo depots, repair bases. Showcased artillery footage (Giatsint-B, Msta-B, D-30).
Russian Unit Recognition: Russian Presidential decrees (reportedly dated March 25, 2025) award honorary "Guards" title to 140th & 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigades, and 89th Sapper Regiment. Future date requires verification; potential indicator of planning or disinformation.
SBU Activity: Besides the alleged detention in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy congratulated the SBU on their professional day.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction: 0.95 (Increased based on UGS report of 68 attacks)
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 1.0 (Confirmed by multiple sources, ongoing)
Intense fighting continues on the Kursk border direction (Demydovka/Popovka areas): 0.9 (Confirmed by UA GS, multiple RU sources)
Intense fighting is occurring on the Toretsk direction: 0.85 (Increased based on UGS report of 23 attacks)
Intense fighting is occurring on the Lyman direction: 0.85 (Increased based on UGS report of 24 attacks)
Intense fighting is occurring on the Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) direction: 0.8 (Based on UGS report 9 attacks/6 ongoing, RU claims)
Russian forces captured Malye Shcherbaky: 0.6 (Based on RU MoD claim, needs verification)
Russian forces advancing near Zherebianky/Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia): 0.65 (Based on RU blogger claims/maps, needs verification)
Russian forces regained control of Dvurechna (Kupiansk): 0.5 (Based on RU blogger claim, needs verification)
Russian aircraft accidentally dropped significant numbers of munitions on Russian/occupied territory in 2025: 0.7 (Based on ASTRA report with specific details)
ZNPP remains under Russian control, Russia rejects transfer: 0.95 (Confirmed by RU MFA)
