Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 19:58 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Developments
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium:
The agreed list of protected energy infrastructure under the 30-day moratorium (effective March 18) has been published. Categories confirmed by multiple sources include: Oil refineries; Oil/gas pipelines and storage; Electricity generation/transmission infrastructure; Nuclear Power Plants; Hydroelectric dams.
The agreement stipulates that a violation by one party nullifies the obligations for the other. Extension requires mutual consent.
Former President Trump reported "big progress" in Saudi Arabia talks, confirming the US is considering Russian requests (5-6 specific conditions) for sanctions relief in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire agreement. Third countries would reportedly be involved in monitoring.
President Zelenskyy accused Russia of manipulating agreement terms, specifically rejecting the linkage of Black Sea safety to sanctions relief, citing White House statements.
Zelenskyy stated any ceasefire aligns with Ukraine's strategy to demonstrate its desire for peace, anticipating Russia may undermine such agreements.
President Putin acknowledged troop rotation for early deployments as an "acute question" managed by the MoD based on "realities on the ground".
Putin promised restoration in Russia's Kursk Oblast for damage attributed to Ukrainian forces, accusing Ukraine of destroying cultural/religious sites and vowing punishment.
Russian MFA stated Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is a "Russian nuclear object" and transfer of control to Ukraine or others is "impossible".
Source Attribution: Basurin o glavnom, RBK-Ukraina.
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport and held for 72 hours by Moldova's anti-corruption center.
Multiple groups remain active across Ukraine, reported in/moving through:
Poltava Oblast (moving SW and West).
Kharkiv Oblast (Northern area; moving West; Sumy/Kharkiv border moving SW; attacks reported on Kharkiv city/suburbs).
Sumy Oblast (Okhtyrka area; Sumy/Kharkiv border).
Kherson/Mykolaiv Oblast border area (moving NW).
Black Sea (towards Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast; accumulating near Tendra Spit; near Kynburn Spit towards Kutsurub/Parutyne).
From Kherson towards Dnipropetrovsk (Pokrov/Nikopol area; Bereznehuvate; Zaporizhzhia) and Mykolaiv (Snihurivka; Posad-Pokrovske area).
Circling reported near Velyka Pysarivka (Belgorod border area) and within Belgorod Oblast itself.
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, STERNENKO.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs):
Activity reported in the South-East direction.
Specific KAB launches confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Three Russian strikes reported on frontline settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force, Zaporizhzhia OVA.
Missile Threats:
Missile danger alert issued for Chernihiv Oblast.
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force.
Air Defence Activity:
Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ukrainian Air Defence (PPO) confirmed active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Source Attribution: Zaporizhzhia OVA.
Air Raid Alerts:
Alert declared across the entirety of Zaporizhzhia Oblast earlier, status may vary.
Source Attribution: Zaporizhzhia OVA.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Belgorod Oblast (Demydovka / Krasnoyaruzhsky Direction):
Heavy and ongoing fighting reported for control of Demydovka. Poor weather noted as hindering air support. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces occupy some houses but not the whole village, and efforts to dislodge them are ongoing.
Russian sources claim readiness to repel further attacks on the Krasnoyaruzhsky direction and state that recent Ukrainian ground activity has ceased after artillery fire.
Russian sources claim repelling a Ukrainian SSO raid near Popovka and pushing forces back towards the border.
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus/225th Assault Reg) claims a successful raid into Demydovka, destroying a Russian battalion HQ and eliminating the deputy commander of a battalion from the 83rd Motor Rifle Regiment (Major Yuri Lomkin), providing alleged ID documents.
Russian source (Colonelcassad) released imagery claiming to show a deceased Ukrainian soldier from the Krasnoyaruzhsky incursion attempt.
Russian sources report continued Ukrainian infantry activity near Grafovka and Prilesye.
Source Attribution: Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Butusov Plus, Colonelcassad, RVvoenkor, Dva Mayora.
Kursk Oblast:
Putin addressed the situation, promising restoration and blaming Ukrainian forces.
Russian charity fund reported delivering Mavic drones (3T/3Pro) to Russian paratroopers operating in the area.
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) highlights alleged severe health consequences for Russian soldiers involved in the Sudzha operation involving gas pipelines ("Operation Potok"), linking it to a public event in Yekaterinburg.
Source Attribution: Basurin o glavnom, Dva Mayora, Butusov Plus.
Claimed significant Russian losses for the week in this sector: ~1241 casualties (596 KIA, 645 WIA), 16 tanks/AFVs, 122 vehicles/light transport, 10 UAVs, 2 artillery systems, 2 ammo depots. Video provided.
Source Attribution: Operativno ZSU.
Krasnoarmeysk Direction (Donetsk Oblast):
Video released by Russian source claims a soldier from the 5th Brigade shot down a Ukrainian FPV drone using a machine gun.
Source Attribution: Colonelcassad.
Zaporizhzhia Frontline:
Three Russian strikes confirmed on frontline settlements.
Source Attribution: Zaporizhzhia OVA.
General Drone Operations:
Footage released by Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces shows drone operations (surveillance, targeting, payload drops) by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade ("Orion" battalion) against Russian targets.
Video shared by Russian source (Dva Mayora) appears to show Ukrainian soldiers successfully shooting down an FPV drone with small arms (shotgun).
Russian source (Dva Mayora) released video appeal from 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment storm detachments requesting drones/batteries, indicating reliance and need.
Source Attribution: Operativno ZSU, Dva Mayora, Arkhangel Spetsnaza.
V. Other Noteworthy Items
Russian Military Claims:
Russian MoD claims strikes on 148 Ukrainian manpower and military hardware concentration areas via aviation, drones, missiles, and artillery in a daily update.
Source Attribution: MoD Russia.
Russian Unit Recognition:
Russian Presidential decrees (dated March 25, 2025) reportedly award the honorary "Guards" title to the 140th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, and 89th Sapper Regiment for combat performance. Note: The future date requires verification; may indicate planning or disinformation.
