Military Situation Update: March 25, 2025, 19:28 UTC
I. Diplomatic and Political Developments
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium:
Kremlin, alongside multiple Russian and Ukrainian sources, confirmed the publication of the agreed list of protected energy infrastructure categories under the 30-day moratorium (effective March 18). Categories include: Oil refineries; Oil/gas pipelines and storage; Electricity generation/transmission infrastructure; Nuclear Power Plants; Hydroelectric dams.
The agreement explicitly states violation by one party frees the other from obligations. Extension requires mutual consent.
Former President Trump stated "big progress" was made in Saudi Arabia talks and confirmed the US is considering Russian requests for sanctions relief in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire agreement. He noted 5-6 Russian demands are being reviewed. (Sources: TASS, Operativno ZSU, RVvoenkor, Sternenko, Tsaplienko_UA_FIGHTS)
Trump also stated that third countries would be involved in monitoring a potential Black Sea ceasefire. (Source: Operativno ZSU)
President Zelenskyy reiterated accusations that Russia is lying and manipulating agreement terms, specifically refuting the linkage of Black Sea safety to sanctions relief, citing White House statements. (Sources: ASTRA, Operativno ZSU)
Ukrainian Stance:
President Zelenskyy stated any ceasefire aligns with Ukraine's strategy to demonstrate its desire to end the war, positioning Russia as the likely spoiler of agreements if they fail. (Source: RBK-Ukraina)
Russian Stance (Putin):
President Putin addressed the issue of troop rotation for those initially deployed, acknowledging it as an "acute question" being handled by the MoD, based on "realities on the ground".
He promised restoration efforts in Russia's Kursk Oblast for damage allegedly caused by Ukrainian forces, accused Ukraine of deliberately destroying cultural/religious sites there, and vowed punishment for perpetrators. (Source: Basurin o glavnom)
Moldova/Gagauzia: Head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, reportedly detained at Chisinau airport, preventing departure. (Source: TASS)
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Ongoing Russian UAV Attacks:
Multiple groups of Shahed-type UAVs reported active across Ukraine:
Poltava Oblast (moving SW and West).
Kharkiv Oblast (moving West; Northern Kharkiv; Sumy/Kharkiv border moving SW).
Sumy Oblast (Okhtyrka area).
Kherson/Mykolaiv Oblast border area.
Black Sea (course towards Odesa Oblast; accumulating near Tendra Spit).
From Kherson towards Dnipropetrovsk (Pokrov/Nikopol) and Mykolaiv (Snihurivka).
Near Kynburn Spit heading towards Kutsurub/Parutyne.
Circling near Velyka Pysarivka (Belgorod border area).
Source Attribution: Ukrainian Air Force, Mykolaivskyi Vanek.
Russian Tactical Aviation / Guided Bombs (KABs):
Activity reported in the South-East direction, posing a threat of air strikes. (Source: Ukrainian Air Force)
Specific KAB launches confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Source: Ukrainian Air Force)
Air Raid Alerts:
Air raid alert declared across the entirety of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Source: Zaporizhzhia OVA)
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Belgorod Oblast:
Continued heavy fighting reported for control of Demydovka; poor weather is noted as hindering air support. (Source: Arkhangel Spetsnaza)
Russian forces report readiness to repel further attacks on the Krasnoyaruzhsky direction. (Source: Arkhangel Spetsnaza)
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) claims Ukrainian 225th Assault Regiment conducted a raid into Demydovka, destroying a Russian battalion HQ and eliminating the deputy commander of a battalion from the 83rd Motor Rifle Regiment (Major Yuri Lomkin), providing alleged ID documents.
Russian source (Colonelcassad) released graphic imagery claiming to show an abandoned, deceased Ukrainian soldier involved in the Krasnoyaruzhsky incursion attempt.
Kursk Oblast:
President Putin addressed the situation, promising restoration and blaming Ukrainian forces for damage, including cultural sites. (Source: Basurin o glavnom)
IV. Frontline Activity
South Donetsk Direction (Vuhledar area):
Ukrainian Tactical Group "Vuhledar" reported repelling 187 Russian assault actions between March 18-24.
Claimed Russian losses for the week in this sector: 596 KIA, 645 WIA, 16 tanks/AFVs destroyed, 122 vehicles/motorcycles/buggies destroyed, 10 UAVs destroyed, 2 artillery systems destroyed, 2 ammo depots destroyed. Video provided. (Source: Operativno ZSU)
Ukrainian Drone Operations:
Footage released by Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces shows drone operations (surveillance, targeting, payload drops) by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade ("Orion" battalion) against Russian equipment and personnel.
Video shared by Russian source (Dva Mayora) appears to show Ukrainian soldiers successfully shooting down an FPV drone with small arms (shotgun).
Russian source (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) shared thermal drone footage of strikes, claiming a "night hunt."
