Analysis of Military Situation in Ukraine: March 25, 2025, 18:58 UTC
I. Diplomatic Developments & Agreements
US-Russia Agreements & Disputes:
Energy Infrastructure Moratorium: Confirmed 30-day moratorium (effective March 18) on strikes against specific energy infrastructure categories (oil refineries, pipelines/storage, power generation/transmission, NPPs, hydro dams). Agreed list published by Kremlin. Agreement allows extension by mutual consent; violation by one party frees the other from obligations.
Black Sea Navigation: Agreement confirmed covering safety of navigation.
Sanctions Dispute: Russia asserts the Black Sea deal is conditional upon significant sanctions relief (SWIFT access, lifting restrictions on finance, agri-tech, ports/vessels). Ukraine (President Zelenskyy) explicitly refutes this linkage, accusing Russia of lying and manipulating the agreement terms as stated by the White House.
ZNPP Status: Russia firmly reiterates Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is a Russian nuclear object; transfer of control or joint operation is deemed impossible. Russia cites the referendum and denies access to NATO representatives due to perceived diversionary potential. President Zelenskyy confirms discussing ZNPP impracticalities (city dependency, water access post-dam destruction) with former President Trump and rejects any notion of the plant supplying Russia or operating without Ukraine.
Territorial Discussions: President Zelenskyy expressed concern over reports of the US discussing Ukrainian territorial issues with Russia without direct Ukrainian participation.
Ongoing Dialogue: US-Russia technical consultations reported as constructive; another joint statement anticipated (Peskov).
Ukrainian Position & Actions:
Verification & Response: President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine provided a list of protected objects for the energy moratorium. He emphasized that Russia's actions (air alerts, Black Sea activity, threats) in the coming days will determine Ukraine's response, potentially including new measures against Moscow. Ukraine distrusts Russian commitments and insists Russia must prove its readiness to end the war truthfully.
International Coordination: Meeting scheduled between President Macron and President Zelenskyy for March 26. US Senators are pushing for the transfer of $300bn in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Lithuania announced plans to increase defense spending to 5% GDP.
II. Frontline Activity & Reported Changes
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv Oblast):
Russian sources claim continued advances west of the Oskol River, including regaining control of Sagunovka, pushing between Krasne Pershe/Kamenka, and entering the outskirts of Mala Shapkovka (SW of Zakhidne).
Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked and regained partial control of Nadiya.
Assessment: Reports indicate continued Russian offensive pressure west of the Oskol, with contested tactical gains. Verification of specific territorial changes is required.
Donetsk Oblast - Pokrovsk Direction:
Intense fighting continues. Russian sources claim significant destruction of Ukrainian equipment (including NATO-supplied), positions, and personnel (video provided).
Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika) reports Ukrainian counterattacks regained half of Solone after initial Russian gains were pushed back, while claiming Russian forces expanded control NW of Kotlyne. Russian source (Sliv. Kapriz) claims Russian advance near Peschanoe (600m south) with coordinates provided.
Assessment: Highly active and fluid sector with claims and counterclaims of tactical advances. Verification required.
Donetsk Oblast - Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) Direction:
Russian sources claim significant advances: 2.5km north from Oleksandropil (Rozivka) and 600m north along the river near Keramik.
Ukrainian counterattacks reported towards Vodiane (near Tarasivka).
Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade confirmed active near Shumy, releasing drone strike footage against Russian targets (howitzer, vehicles, BTR, MT-LB, tanks, ammo).
Assessment: Reports suggest significant Russian offensive efforts near Toretsk. Verification of claimed advances is crucial.
Donetsk Oblast - General:
Russian MoD claims capture of Sribnoye settlement. Requires verification.
Confirmed Russian Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches into Donetsk Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Direction:
Russian sources (Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika, Sliv. Kapriz, MoD) claim continued offensive operations along the Stepove-Kamenske line, reporting:
Advances north of Zherebianky (involving 429th Motor Rifle Regiment).
Control over southern Lobkove, pushing north within the settlement.
Heavy fighting near Stepove, with Russian forces holding most of the settlement despite Ukrainian counterattacks from Kamenske and Novopavlivka. High Ukrainian drone activity ("Baba Yaga") noted.
Full control of Malye Shcherbaky claimed and confirmed by RU MoD.
Unclear situation in Shcherbaky (adjacent village); initial Russian push may have stalled.
Expansion of control zone >1km towards Kamenske from Stepove (coordinates provided).
Confirmed ongoing Russian "Grad" MLRS attacks on residential areas in Stepnohirsk.
Assessment: Significant Russian claims of coordinated advances across a wide front in western Zaporizhzhia. Requires urgent verification.
Kherson Direction:
Russian source claims an Iskander missile strike targeted a Ukrainian command post in Nadezhdivka. Requires verification.
III. Border Situation (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy)
Kursk Oblast (near Sumy):
Intense, fluid fighting continues within Russian territory, particularly near Sudzha.
Russian forces reportedly employing aviation and fiber-optic drones due to strong Ukrainian Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. Artillery, drone, and small arms engagements ongoing.
Ukrainian strike confirmed hitting Russian forces in Kondrativka.
Russian sources continue to allege Ukrainian atrocities against civilians (graphic video shared) and claim discovery of mutilated foreign mercenary bodies allegedly killed by Ukrainian forces. These serious allegations require independent verification.
Belgorod Oblast (near Sumy/Kharkiv):
Continued fighting and Ukrainian cross-border activity reported.
Demydovka: Reported as a grey zone or contested.
Popovka: Reports of Ukrainian infiltration attempts; status contested (some RU sources claim 'no-man's land').
Russia claims ongoing Ukrainian attacks are being repelled. 12 Russian UAVs reported active near recently contested border areas.
Sumy Oblast (Ukrainian side):
Russian forces reportedly attempting to push across the border near Basivka/Volodymyrivka, aiming to create a "sanitary zone," meeting Ukrainian resistance. Increased Russian troop concentration noted in the area.
Confirmed Russian KAB launches targeting Sumy Oblast.
IV. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
UAV Threats:
Ongoing threat from Russian Shahed-type UAVs reported across multiple regions:
Active in Sumy, Kharkiv Oblasts.
Moving west from eastern Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
Group moving from Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
Specific tracks reported: Berislav district towards Bereznehuvate; Sumy/Poltava border area; west of Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast).
Russian Strikes & Claims:
Confirmed major Russian missile strike on Sumy city center (March 24), hitting residential/infrastructure areas, causing over 100 injuries (incl. 14 children).
Russian sources claim successful strikes:
Iskander missile on SBU building in Kramatorsk during a command meeting, allegedly killing >20 officers (incl. GUR Major). Requires urgent verification.
Geran-2 drones on an ammunition arsenal near Lisove (Kirovohrad Oblast), destroying trucks and damaging armored vehicles (Dingo, MaxxPro). Requires verification.
Strike on Uman airfield (Cherkasy Oblast). Requires verification.
Confirmed use of 2S4 Tyulpan heavy mortars against fortified positions/buildings in the South Donetsk direction.
Ukrainian Strikes & Air Defense:
Reports indicate effective Ukrainian drone operations destroying Russian vehicles and impacting logistics across multiple directions (Donetsk, Lyman, Kharkiv border). Specific unit claims noted (Omega, SSO, 28th Mech).
Damage to railway infrastructure confirmed in Izyum (Kharkiv Oblast), likely resulting from a Russian strike.
V. Other Key Information
Russian Offensive Preparations: Assessment suggests Russia continues preparing for a new offensive, potentially in Donbas and Kharkiv Oblast, likely aimed at increasing leverage in negotiations.
Logistics & Resources: Ongoing Ukrainian efforts to procure equipment through fundraising (e.g., Land Rover Defenders for Condor drone battalion, vehicles for 3rd Assault Brigade) and domestic production (e.g., "Pereverten" FPV drones). Anti-corruption measures emphasized in Zaporizhzhia to ensure resource integrity.
Casualties & Detentions: Confirmed deaths of Russian journalists near Kupyansk/Kreminna area (March 24). Reported detention of Crimean Tatar man (Eldar Karamurza) in occupied Kherson Oblast.
