Details: Agreements confirmed in Riyadh covering Black Sea navigation safety and a 30-day ban on energy infrastructure strikes (began March 18). Russia explicitly conditions the Black Sea deal on significant sanctions relief (SWIFT access, lifting company/port/vessel restrictions, agri-tech imports, trade finance/insurance). Russia maintains ZNPP is a Russian nuclear object; transfer of control or joint operation is deemed impossible. Russia denies access to NATO representatives citing diversionary potential. US-Russia work reported to continue constructively, with another joint statement expected soon (Peskov).
Assessment: Formal agreements exist, but implementation, especially for the Black Sea, hinges on Russian demands for major sanctions relief, making it highly conditional. The energy strike ban is probationary. Russia's ZNPP stance remains firm. Continued US-Russia dialogue confirmed.
Details: Significant concern voiced by Zelenskyy and others that Ukraine is making unilateral concessions while Russia potentially gains sanctions relief. Zelenskyy views US facilitation of Russian market access as sanctions easing. Strong concern expressed about US discussing Ukrainian territorial issues with Russia without direct Ukrainian participation; territorial integrity reaffirmed as non-negotiable. Rejects reported US/Trump desire for control over ZNPP. Zelenskyy stated agreements on energy/maritime silence take effect upon US statement, Ukraine provided list of protected objects. Zelenskyy warns Russia's actions in coming days (air alerts, Black Sea activity, threats) will determine further response, including potential new measures against Moscow. Diplomacy must work, but trust in Russia is low.
Assessment: High-level Ukrainian apprehension regarding the negotiation terms, perceived imbalances, and exclusion from territorial discussions. Potential impact on domestic support and future diplomatic stances. Ukraine emphasizes verification of Russian compliance and links future actions to Russia's behavior.
II. Frontline Activity & Reported Advances
Russian Advance Claims (Kupyansk Direction):
Source: Rybar (Russian Mil-Blogger).
Details: Claims Russian forces advanced west of Oskol River, regaining control of Sagunovka (part of Dvuorechna), advancing between Krasne Pershe/Kamenka (occupying chalk hill, part of Zalivny-1 forest), and advancing towards Mala Shapkovka (Zakhidne-Kalynove line), though not yet reaching outskirts. Notes RU supply difficulties west of Oskol. Fighting also reported east of Oskol near Stepova Novoselka (under UA control) and Kolisnykivka (grey zone).
Assessment: Significant Russian claims of tactical advances west of the Oskol, regaining previously lost ground and pushing towards key settlements. Requires urgent verification. Indicates continued offensive pressure despite stated logistical challenges.
Russian Advance Claims (Donetsk Oblast - General):
Source: MoD Russia.
Details: Claims capture of Sribnoye (DPR) by 90th Guards Tank Division.
Assessment: Russian claim of capturing a settlement. Requires urgent verification.
Russian Advance Claims (Donetsk Oblast - Pokrovsk Direction):
Source: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны.
Details: Reports intense fighting with Russian forces ("Center" group) destroying Ukrainian equipment (including NATO-supplied), positions, artillery, and personnel on March 24.
Assessment: Claims of significant ongoing combat and destruction of Ukrainian assets in the Pokrovsk direction. Requires verification. Reinforces reports of intense fighting in this sector.
Russian Advance Claims (Zaporizhzhia Direction):
Source: Voenkor Kotenok, Rybar, Сливочный каприз (Russian Mil-Bloggers), MoD Russia.
Details: Claims Russian forces advancing along the line from Stepove to Kamenske. Specific claims include:
Improved tactical positions near Stepove (429th Mot. Rifle Regt).
Southern part of Lobkove under RU VDV/infantry control, advancing north within the settlement.
Fighting for UA strongpoint NW of Piatykhatky.
Malye Shcherbaky fully under RU 7th DShD control (aligns with MoD claim).
Fighting ongoing for Shcherbaky (RU forces reached SW outskirts but initial push may have stalled).
RU units advancing from Nesterianka towards Novoadriivka (4.5 km W of Orikhiv).
RU forces expanded zone of control >1km towards Kamenske from Stepove.
Assessment: Significant claims of Russian offensive operations and advances across a wide front in Zaporizhzhia, including the capture of Malye Shcherbaky. Reports suggest Ukrainian counterattacks near Stepove. Requires urgent verification.
Ongoing Hostilities & Strikes:
Source: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Admin, DeepState, BUTUSOV PLYUS, Rybar, Ukrainian Air Force, RBC-Ukraina, Дневник Десантника, Colonelcassad.
Details:
Confirmed ongoing Russian "Grad" MLRS attacks on residential areas in Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia).
Confirmed Russian guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches in Donetsk Oblast (March 24/25).
Effective UA drone operations reported destroying RU vehicles/impacting logistics (Donetsk direction, 110th Mech Brigade vs armored column; Lyman direction, TOR SAM & artillery hit; Kharkiv border, ammo truck hit, confirmed by RU source; Omega unit claims 9 howitzers, 1 Grad, 1 tank destroyed/damaged in past week; SSO unit targeting troops).
Russian claims of UA drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Svatovo gas station, Rostov region, Glebovskoye gas storage in Crimea) during Riyadh talks.
Major Russian missile strike on Sumy city center (March 24), hitting residential areas and infrastructure, causing numerous casualties (>100 injured).
Russian claim of Geran-2 drone strike hitting ammunition arsenal near Lisove (Kirovohrad Oblast), destroying trucks, damaging armor (Dingo, MaxxPro). Claim of strike on Vasylkiv airfield (Kyiv Oblast) damaging assembly shops/equipment. Requires verification.
Damage to railway infrastructure reported in Izyum (Kharkiv Oblast), likely from Russian strike.
Claimed Major Russian Strike on Ukrainian Command:
Source: Dnevnik Desantnika (Russian Mil-Blogger).
Details: Claims Iskander strike on SBU building in Kramatorsk (48.732609, 37.591920) during command meeting, killing >20 officers including GUR Major K. Kozeletsky.
Assessment: Claim of a significant high-value target strike. Requires urgent verification.
III. Border Situation (Sumy/Belgorod/Kursk)
Fighting in Russian Border Territory (Belgorod Oblast):
Details: Continued fighting involving Ukrainian units within Russian territory near Sumy border.
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): DeepState reports a grey zone. Russian sources confirm fighting, contested control, UA using small infantry groups, potentially Bradleys, increased FPV drones.
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Russian sources reported UA offensive/infiltration attempts. One source claims RU border guards evacuated, stronghold destroyed, now 'no-man's land'. Fighterbomber questions lack of timely Russian reinforcements reported near border fighting.
Assessment: Confirms ongoing Ukrainian cross-border activity and intense, fluid fighting within Belgorod Oblast. Discrepancies on control status persist.
Russian Border Operations (Sumy Oblast):
Source: DeepState.
Details: Reports Russian attempts to push across the border near Basivka/Volodymyrivka (Sumy Oblast, Ukraine) aiming to create a "sanitary zone," meeting UA resistance. Notes a larger RU troop concentration in the area.
Assessment: Indicates Russian intent to establish a buffer zone on the Ukrainian side of the border near Sumy, facing UA defense.
Details: Highly contested area with conflicting claims. Ukrainian strike confirmed hitting RU forces in Kondrativka. Russian claims of advances (March 24) and pushing UA forces out persist but lack clear verification. Russian MoD showed allegedly captured UA vehicles. Russian source (НгП раZVедка) posts graphic video claiming discovery of tortured/killed civilians in "liberated" areas, blaming Ukrainian forces.
Assessment: Situation remains unclear. Intense fighting confirmed. Allegations of atrocities require independent verification and investigation.
IV. Air Threats & Air Defense
UAV Threats:
Source: Ukrainian Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ.
Details: Ongoing threat of Russian Shahed-type UAVs reported in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts (18:07 UTC). UAVs reported moving west from eastern Kharkiv Oblast and from Kharkiv towards Poltava Oblast (18:28 UTC).
Assessment: Active air threat requiring air defense engagement and civilian alerts in northeastern regions.
Details: Confirmed deaths of Russian journalists Alexander Fedorchak (Izvestia), Andrey Panov (Zvezda), and driver Alexander Sirkeli near Kupyansk/Kreminna area (allegedly by missile/HIMARS strike, March 24). Total casualties in the specific incident reported as six. Russian Human Rights Council commission issued statement condemning the killings.
Assessment: Confirmed media casualties near front lines. Potential for propaganda exploitation regarding targeting.
Russian Military Preparations/Morale:
Source: BUTUSOV PLYUS, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia.
Details: Ukrainian source (Butusov) assesses Russia is preparing a new offensive in Donbas/Kharkivshchyna, despite slowed activity in Kursk, likely to raise stakes in negotiations. Russian MoD video features alleged POW claiming bribery was needed to avoid frontline, poor conditions, and advocating surrender. Another RU source highlights story of soldier carrying two wounded comrades 30km over 4 days under fire.
Assessment: Indications of continued Russian offensive preparations. Contrasting narratives regarding Russian military morale and conditions presented (propaganda vs. potential issues).
Alleged Ukrainian Military Issues/Positions:
Source: Colonelcassad (RU Mil-Blogger).
Details: Claims Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade previously used shelter under an active children's football school in Sumy for protection, and now occupies a similar position in residential area.
Assessment: Allegation of using civilian infrastructure for military purposes. Requires verification. If true, poses significant ethical concerns and risks to civilians.
Alleged Detention in Occupied Kherson:
Source: ASTRA (Independent/Opposition).
Details: Reports detention of a Crimean Tatar man (Eldar Karamurza) in occupied Kherson Oblast, accused of links to Crimean Tatar battalion and participation in "economic blockade" of Crimea. Family reportedly unaware of his location for a month.
Assessment: Report indicates ongoing suppression and detentions in occupied territories targeting specific ethnic/political groups.
French Nuclear Deterrent Exercise:
Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RU Mil-Blogger).
Details: Reports increased French air activity (tankers, recon aircraft) over France as part of "Poker" nuclear deterrent exercise, testing readiness of nuclear carriers like Rafale-B. Source interprets increased frequency as escalation.
Assessment: Confirmed French military exercise related to nuclear deterrence posture, likely pre-planned but occurring amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
