Analysis of Military Situation in Ukraine: March 25, 2025, 17:58 UTC
Major Updates
I. Diplomatic Agreements & Conditions (Direct Military Impact)
US-Russia Agreements Confirmed with Stringent Russian Conditions:
Source: Kremlin (via Kotsnews, Basurin), confirmed by multiple sources.
Details: Agreements reached in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) cover:
Black Sea Initiative: Safety of navigation, non-use of force, preventing military use of commercial vessels (with inspections). Implementation is conditional on substantial sanctions relief for Russia, including:
SWIFT access restoration for Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in food/fertilizer trade.
Lifting restrictions on relevant Russian companies, ports, vessels.
Allowing agri-tech imports to Russia.
Opening correspondent accounts, ensuring trade financing and insurance.
Energy Infrastructure: 30-day ban on strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities (started March 18), extendable or retractable based on compliance.
US Facilitation: US to aid restoration of Russian agricultural/fertilizer export access, reduce insurance costs, expand port access, facilitate payments.
Third-Party Monitoring: Welcomed for energy/maritime deals.
Assessment: Confirmation of agreements, but Russia's linkage of the Black Sea deal to major sanctions relief (incl. SWIFT) significantly complicates implementation and feasibility. The energy strike ban is a trial period. Russia maintains ZNPP is a Russian nuclear object and transfer of control or joint operation is impossible; denies access to NATO representatives citing diversionary potential.
Details: Growing sentiment within Ukraine that unilateral concessions were made (halting effective energy/naval attacks) while Russia benefits from sanctions relief potentially funding further aggression. Zelenskyy views US facilitation of Russian market access as sanctions easing. Significant concern expressed by Zelenskyy about US discussing Ukrainian territorial issues with Russia without direct Ukrainian participation; reiterates territorial integrity is non-negotiable. Rejects reported US desire for control over ZNPP, stating Ukrainian operation and long-term repairs are necessary.
Assessment: Significant internal dissent and high-level concern in Ukraine regarding the perceived imbalance and exclusion from territorial discussions. Potential impact on domestic support and future negotiations.
II. Frontline Activity & Reported Advances
Russian Advance Claims (Kupyansk Direction):
Source: Rybar (Russian Mil-Blogger).
Details: Claims Russian forces advanced west of Oskol River, regaining control of Sagunovka (part of Dvuorechna), advancing between Krasne Pershe/Kamenka (occupying chalk hill, part of Zalivny-1 forest), and advancing towards Mala Shapkovka (Zakhidne-Kalynove line), though not yet reaching outskirts. Notes RU supply difficulties west of Oskol.
Assessment: Significant Russian claims of tactical advances west of the Oskol. Requires urgent verification. Indicates continued offensive pressure despite reported logistical challenges.
Russian Advance Claims (Donetsk Oblast):
Source: MoD Russia.
Details: Claims capture of Sribnoye (DPR) by 90th Guards Tank Division.
Assessment: Russian claim of capturing a settlement. Requires urgent verification.
Russian Advance Claims (Zaporizhzhia Direction):
Source: Voenkor Kotenok (Russian Mil-Blogger).
Details: Claims Russian forces advancing along the entire line from Stepove to Kamenske. Specific claims include: improved tactical positions near Stepove; southern part of Lobkove under RU VDV/infantry control; fighting for UA strongpoint NW of Piatykhatky; Malye Shcherbaky fully under RU 7th DShD control (aligns with MoD claim); fighting ongoing for Shcherbaky; RU units advancing from Nesterianka towards Novoadriivka (4.5 km W of Orikhiv).
Assessment: Significant claims of Russian offensive operations and advances across a wide front in Zaporizhzhia. Requires urgent verification.
Ongoing Hostilities & Strikes:
Source: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Admin, DeepState, BUTUSOV PLYUS, Rybar, Ukrainian Air Force, RBC-Ukraina.
Details:
Confirmed ongoing Russian "Grad" MLRS attacks on residential areas in Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia). Potential violation of spirit/intent of agreements.
Confirmed Russian guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches in Donetsk Oblast (March 24).
Effective UA drone operations reported destroying RU vehicles/impacting logistics (Donetsk direction, 110th Mech Brigade vs armored column; Lyman direction, TOR SAM & artillery hit; Kharkiv border, ammo truck hit; Omega unit claims 9 howitzers, 1 Grad, 1 tank destroyed/damaged in past week).
Russian claims of UA drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Svatovo gas station, Rostov region, Glebovskoye gas storage in Crimea) during Riyadh talks.
Major Russian missile strike on Sumy city center (March 24), hitting residential areas and infrastructure, causing numerous casualties (>100 injured reported).
Claimed Major Russian Strike on Ukrainian Command:
Source: Dnevnik Desantnika (Russian Mil-Blogger).
Details: Claims Iskander strike on SBU building in Kramatorsk (48.732609, 37.591920) during command meeting, killing >20 officers including GUR Major K. Kozeletsky.
Assessment: Claim of a significant high-value target strike. Requires urgent verification.
III. Border Situation (Sumy/Belgorod/Kursk)
Fighting in Russian Border Territory (Belgorod Oblast):
Details: Reports indicate continued fighting involving Ukrainian units within Russian territory near the Sumy border.
Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast): DeepState reports a grey zone due to fighting. Russian sources confirm fighting, with conflicting reports on control (contested/grey zone vs. RU holding firm), suggest UA using small infantry groups, potentially Bradleys, and increased FPV drones.
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Russian sources report UA offensive efforts/infiltration attempts.
Assessment: Confirms Ukrainian cross-border activity and intense, fluid fighting within Russian territory (Belgorod Oblast).
Russian Border Operations (Sumy Oblast):
Source: DeepState.
Details: Reports Russian attempts to push across the border near Basivka/Volodymyrivka (Sumy Oblast, Ukraine) aiming to create a "sanitary zone," meeting UA resistance. Notes a larger RU troop concentration in the area.
Assessment: Indicates Russian intent to establish a buffer zone on the Ukrainian side of the border near Sumy, facing UA defense.
Details: Conflicting reports persist. Russian sources claimed significant advances (March 24), reaching Sudzha border point and fighting for Gogolevka. Ukrainian sources reported hitting RU forces in Kondrativka (Kursk Oblast). Russian sources (WarGonzo) claim 810th Brigade pushed UA forces out, contradicting DeepState's reports of UA presence. Russian MoD showed allegedly captured UA vehicles (MaxxPro, Renault APC, Kozak).
Assessment: Highly contested area with conflicting claims. Verification of reported Russian advances or Ukrainian positions is crucial.
IV. Naval / Drone Developments
Reported New Ukrainian USV "Katran":
Source: Dva Mayora (Russian Mil-Blogger).
Details: Reports Ukraine announced a new multi-role USV claiming capabilities against sea/land/air targets (torpedoes, minigun, MANPADS, EW) with >1000km range. Source dismisses capabilities but acknowledges past USV effectiveness.
Source: ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (Russian Opposition/Independent).
Details: Reports of an alleged scheme in Primorye (RU 60th Brigade) involving tricking marginalized individuals into contracts, arranging sham marriages for death benefits, and attempting transfers to assault units for faster death. Separate video allegedly shows a wounded Russian soldier claiming abandonment for 5 days.
Assessment: If verified, indicates potential severe corruption, exploitation, and poor conditions impacting morale within parts of the Russian military. Requires verification.
Details: Reports confirm Russian war correspondent (Alexander Fedorchak, Izvestia), operator (Andrey Panov, Zvezda), and driver (Alexander Sirkeli) were killed near Kupyansk (allegedly by missile strike, March 24). Ukrainian source claims a group of Russian propagandists were destroyed by a UA missile strike on March 24.
Assessment: Confirmed casualties among media personnel operating near the front lines. Potential propaganda implications regarding targeting.
