Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 25, 2025, 17:35 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (17:16 UTC - 17:35 UTC)
KREMLIN CONFIRMS AGREEMENTS WITH CONDITIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Kotsnews (16:55 UTC), Basurin (17:13 UTC): Kremlin statements confirm agreements reached in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) with the US regarding:
Black Sea Initiative: Ensuring safety of navigation, non-use of force, preventing military use of commercial vessels (with inspections). Crucially, implementation is conditional upon lifting sanctions on Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in food/fertilizer trade (SWIFT access, correspondent accounts, trade financing, insurance), lifting restrictions on relevant companies/ports/vessels, and allowing agri-tech imports to Russia.
Energy Infrastructure: A 30-day ban on strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities, starting March 18, 2025, with possibility of extension or withdrawal for non-compliance.
US Assistance: US will facilitate restoration of Russian agricultural/fertilizer export access, reduce shipping insurance costs, expand port access, and facilitate payments.
Third-Party Monitoring: Welcome services from third countries to support energy/maritime agreements.
Peace Goal: Commitment to continue working towards lasting peace.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the agreements but reveals SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN CONDITIONS, particularly linking the Black Sea deal's activation to substantial sanctions relief, including SWIFT access for key banks. This COMPLICATES the implementation and raises questions about the timeline and feasibility. The 30-day trial for the energy strike ban is noteworthy.
INCREASED UKRAINIAN CONCERN OVER AGREEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
STERNENKO (17:00, 17:20 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (17:15 UTC): Growing sentiment that Ukraine made unilateral concessions (halting effective energy/naval attacks) while Russia benefits from sanctions relief (grain/fertilizer exports) without reciprocal concessions, potentially funding further aggression. Accusations that the US is "saving" Russia.
Zelenskiy / Official (quoted by STERNENKO 17:32 UTC): Views US assistance for Russian agricultural/fertilizer market access as sanctions easing.
Assessment:SIGNIFICANT INTERNAL DISSENT and CONCERN within Ukraine regarding the perceived imbalance of the agreements. This could impact domestic support and future negotiating positions. Zelenskyy's statement reinforces this view at the highest level.
ZELENSKYY'S CONCERNS OVER US-RUSSIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
RBC-Ukraina (17:25 UTC), Operativny ZSU (17:31 UTC), RVvoenkor (17:29 UTC): Zelenskyy expresses concern that the US is discussing Ukrainian territorial issues with Russia without direct Ukrainian participation. Reiterates that Ukraine has made no territorial agreements and that territorial integrity is non-negotiable.
Confirms reports that Trump wants US control over Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which Zelenskyy rejects, stating it needs Ukrainian operation and significant repairs (2-2.5 years).
Assessment: Highlights SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN APPREHENSION about being excluded from critical discussions affecting its sovereignty. Reinforces Ukraine's stance on territory and reveals details about ZNPP discussions.
Rybar (17:29 UTC): Claims Russian forces advanced west of the Oskol River (Kupyansk direction), regaining control of Sagunovka (part of Dvuorechna), advancing between Krasne Pershe/Kamenka (occupying chalk hill, part of Zalivny-1 forest), and advancing towards Mala Shapkovka (Zakhidne-Kalynove line), though not reaching outskirts yet. Reports activity east of Oskol near Stepova Novoselka (UA controlled) and Kolеsnykivka (grey zone). Notes RU supply difficulties west of Oskol. Includes map.
MoD Russia (16:38 UTC): Claims capture of Sribnoye (DPR) by 90th Guards Tank Division.
Dnevnik Desantnika (16:40 UTC): Claims Iskander strike on SBU building in Kramatorsk (48.732609, 37.591920) during command meeting, killing >20 officers including GUR Major K. Kozeletsky.
Assessment:SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN CLAIMS of tactical advances on multiple fronts (Kupyansk, DPR) and a major strike on command infrastructure. REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, indicates continued Russian offensive pressure and potential high-value target success. Rybar's detailed Kupyansk claims suggest focused effort west of Oskol despite logistical challenges.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (17:13 UTC): Confirmed Russian "Grad" MLRS attacks ongoing on residential areas in Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia).
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (17:05 UTC): Reports grey zone near Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast, Russia) due to fighting involving UA units. Reports RU attempts to push border near Basivka/Volodymyrivka (Sumy Oblast, Ukraine) for "sanitary zone", meeting UA resistance. Notes larger RU troop concentration.
Rybar (17:02 UTC): Claims UA drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Svatovo gas station, Rostov region, Glebovskoye gas storage in Crimea) occurred during the Riyadh talks.
Assessment: Confirms CONTINUED HOSTILITIES despite diplomatic agreements. Russian attacks on civilians persist (Stepnohirsk). Intense fighting reported near Sumy border (in Russian territory). Both sides claim tactical successes, particularly involving drones. Russian claim of UA attacks during talks serves as counter-narrative.
REPORTED NEW UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Dva Mayora (16:39 UTC): Reports Ukraine announced a new multi-role USV "Katran," claiming capabilities against sea/land/air targets (torpedoes, minigun, MANPADS, EW), >1000km range. Source dismisses as "cartoon" but acknowledges reliance on Starlink and past effectiveness of armed USVs.
Assessment: Potential development in Ukrainian naval capabilities. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If capabilities are accurate, it represents a significant evolution of USV threats.
ASTRA (17:28 UTC): Reports alleged criminal scheme in Primorye (RU 60th Brigade) involving personnel tricking marginalized individuals into signing contracts, arranging sham marriages, aiming to collect death benefits, and attempting to transfer victims to assault units for faster death. Specific names mentioned. Includes documents.
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (17:12 UTC): Video allegedly shows wounded Russian soldier claiming to be abandoned in a hole for 5 days without evacuation.
Assessment: These reports, if verified, indicate POTENTIAL SEVERE CORRUPTION, EXPLOITATION, and POOR CONDITIONS within parts of the Russian military, potentially impacting morale and recruitment. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
KREMLIN CONFIRMS AGREEMENTS BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS: Black Sea deal implementation tied to substantial sanctions relief (incl. SWIFT). Energy strike ban is a 30-day trial. MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, implementation uncertain.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN BANK REINTEGRATION INTO SWIFT (as part of conditions).
ZELENSKYY CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN COMMITMENT TO AGREEMENTS/CEASEFIRE, but expresses MAJOR CONCERNS about US-Russia talks excluding Ukraine and views RU market access as sanctions easing.
CONFIRMED ONGOING RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIANS (Stepnohirsk Grad attack). Potential violation/undermining of agreements.
HIGH PRIORITY:
SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS West of Oskol (Kupyansk) and in DPR (Sribnoye). REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION.
CLAIMED MAJOR RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN COMMAND (Kramatorsk, GUR Major killed). REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
GROWING UKRAINIAN CONCERN/DISSENT regarding perceived imbalance of agreements favouring Russia.
ONGOING FIGHTING NEAR SUMY BORDER (Demydovka, RU territory) & RU efforts to create "sanitary zone".
EFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS reported against RU logistics/armor.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE during Riyadh talks.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
REPORTED NEW UKRAINIAN "KATRAN" USV. Requires verification.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION (WarGonzo claim re: 810th Brigade pushing UA out - Conflicts with DeepState). Requires Verification.
ANALYZE & RESPOND TO CONDITIONAL AGREEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ASSESS THE FULL IMPLICATIONS of Russia's conditions for implementing the Black Sea Initiative (sanctions relief, SWIFT access, etc.). Determine feasibility and potential impact on Ukraine's economy and war effort if conditions are met.
COORDINATE URGENTLY WITH US & ALLIES regarding Russia's conditions and Ukraine's concerns about the agreements' imbalance and exclusion from direct talks on territory. Define clear red lines.
DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for scenarios where Russia fails to comply or where the agreements are implemented under Russian conditions.
INTENSIFY ISR COLLECTION on Black Sea activity, energy infrastructure (both sides), and frontline activity to detect violations or preparations for violations of the maritime safety and energy strike agreements.
DOCUMENT & REPORT VIOLATIONS (e.g., Stepnohirsk attack) immediately to Ukrainian Command and international partners/monitoring bodies. Use evidence to counter Russian narratives.
PRIORITIZE ISR ASSETS (Satellite, Drone, SIGINT, HUMINT) on Kupyansk front (west of Oskol: Dvuorechna, Krasne Pershe/Kamenka, Zakhidne/Mala Shapkovka), DPR (Sribnoye), and Kramatorsk (SBU building coordinates) to verify/refute Russian claims.
ASSESS IMPACT of any confirmed advances or successful strikes on Ukrainian defensive posture and command structure.
DEVELOP COUNTER-PLANS to mitigate confirmed Russian gains or loss of command personnel.
DEPLOY ISR ASSETS to Sumy border region (Basivka/Volodymyrivka) and adjacent Russian territory (Demydovka, Popovka) to clarify control, assess Russian force posture/intentions ("sanitary zone"), and verify conflicting claims (DeepState vs WarGonzo).
EVALUATE UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSTURE and resource allocation in the area, considering the larger reported Russian grouping.
ASSESS FEASIBILITY/RISK of maintaining presence/operations in Russian border areas vs resource cost (ref. expert commentary).
GATHER FURTHER INTELLIGENCE on alleged recruitment scams, poor medevac/conditions (ASTRA, Mobilizatsiya reports). Verify specific units/locations.
DEVELOP INFORMATION OPERATIONS to target Russian military morale based on verified instances of corruption, poor leadership, or abandonment of wounded.
VERIFY OTHER CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):
VERIFY claimed new "Katran" USV capabilities.
VERIFY claimed killing of Russian propagandists (March 24).
VERIFY conflicting claims regarding Ukrainian presence/operations in Kursk Oblast.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is marked by a MAJOR DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENT with the US-Russia-Ukraine agreements, but SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY and RISK due to Russia's stringent conditions and Ukrainian concerns about fairness and exclusion. HOSTILITIES CONTINUE UNABATED, with confirmed Russian attacks on civilians and significant Russian claims of advances and high-value strikes requiring urgent verification. *CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAP
