Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 24, 2025, 07:41 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:12 UTC - 07:41 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN-US NEGOTIATIONS STARTED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (07:15 UTC), Два майора (07:15 UTC), РБК-Україна (07:26 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:26 UTC): Reports that negotiations between Russian and US delegations regarding the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict have begun in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The meeting is closed-door, with journalists asked to leave. Два майора notes that the Ukrainian GUR and SSO released footage of HIMARS strikes inside Belgorod Oblast, suggesting this is a pressure tactic.

• ТАСС (7:33): Reports that the Ukrainian delegation is also in Riyadh, but are not participating in the talks, awaiting the results of the meeting.
  • Assessment: CONFIRMED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES. The START OF NEGOTIATIONS is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. The CLOSED-DOOR NATURE and the UKRAINIAN PRESSURE TACTICS are NOTEWORTHY. The US GOAL, according to ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, is a CEASEFIRE IN THE BLACK SEA and the RETURN OF UKRAINIAN CHILDREN.

2. CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (07:34 UTC): Claims a Russian "Lancet" loitering munition destroyed a loader for S-300 missiles in Ulyanovka, Sumy Oblast, 31 km from the border. Provides video.
   • ТАСС (7:19): Claims "Rubicon" FPV-drones hit personnel and armor in the Kursk Region.
   • Assessment: The VIDEO shows a DRONE STRIKE on a VEHICLE. The CLAIM OF DESTROYING AN S-300 LOADER REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If CONFIRMED, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.

3. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE DESTROYING RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (07:24 UTC): Claims Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, in cooperation with GUR, Rocket Forces, and Artillery, destroyed two Russian Ka-52 and two Mi-8 helicopters in Belgorod Oblast, Russia. Claims the helicopters were at a "masked position" used for quick deployments and attacks. Provides video.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR CLAIM and REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. IF CONFIRMED, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS and a MAJOR LOSS for RUSSIAN FORCES. The CLAIM OF STRIKING INSIDE RUSSIA is ESCALATORY.

4. CASUALTIES IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (07:10 UTC): Reports the driver of the bus that collided with the truck was sober.
• ТАСС (7:27): Reports of 21 injured and 6 dead in a traffic accident in Crimea.

5. OTHER UPDATES:

   • ТАСС (07:13 UTC): Reports on a funeral for a writer. NOT RELEVANT.
   • Colonelcassad (07:15 UTC): Reports the interception and destruction of 28 Ukrainian drones overnight. CORROBORATES PREVIOUS CLAIMS.
   • Janus Putkonen (07:17 UTC): Reports on Alexander Zakharchenko's claim. REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION.

• ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (7:35): Shows images of soldiers and equipment operating at night.
• Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (07:38 UTC): Shows a video of damaged equipment, claims trophies have been collected. NOT RELEVANT.
• Север.Реалии (7:38): Reports payments to pregnant schoolgirls. NOT RELEVANT.
• Воин DV (07:30 UTC): Claims to show successful strikes against Ukrainian forces.
• ASTRA (7:30): Reports damage to buildings in Kropotkin, Krasnodar Krai.
  • Analysis of Image: The presence of shattered glass suggests a potential act of vandalism, conflict, or accidental damage. Additionally, the damage inflicted at night hints at an act carried out under the cover of darkness. The nature of the location (an exterior courtyard) and the lack of individuals present do not directly correlate with specific ongoing military operations. However, it may still inform strategic decisions in terms of damage assessment, security protocols, and incident response.
  • Analysis of Video: Based on the provided video, here is a concise summary of the analysis:

Analysis Summary:

The video depicts the aftermath of apparent damage to a building, indicated by shattered windows and scattered debris (glass, papers, and other materials) across multiple rooms. The building appears to be located near a railway line, as seen through the broken windows. The nature of the damage suggests possible impact from an explosion or projectile, though the exact cause cannot be determined from the footage alone. The presence of personal belongings like furniture and documents indicates the building may have been in use or occupied recently.

Strategic Implications:

• Geographic Location: Proximity to the railway line could make the building a potential target due to its strategic importance for logistics and transportation.
• Targeting Patterns: If multiple buildings in the area show similar damage, it could indicate a pattern of strikes or attacks in that specific region.
• Humanitarian Impact: Damaged buildings could imply displacement of civilians or disruption of essential services, requiring humanitarian aid and support.
• Intelligence Value: The video could be used to assess the effectiveness of weaponry or to gather intelligence on the location and operational status of railway infrastructure.

Caveats:

• This analysis is limited by the visual nature of the video and lacks additional context.
• The exact cause of the damage is speculative without further evidence.
• The strategic implications are based on general assumptions and may not reflect the true situation on the ground.

Please note that this analysis is based on the assumption of the video being related to military operations. Additional information about the location, context, and timeline of the video is necessary for a more accurate assessment. * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:29 UTC), РБК-Україна (07:29 UTC): Reports high-speed targets heading towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. * Оперативний ЗСУ (07:31 UTC): Reports the same.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE DESTROYING FOUR RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS in BELGOROD OBLAST. MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES, including OFFICIAL CHANNELS and affiliated Telegram groups, continue to REPORT THE STRIKE, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is still LACKING. ADDITIONAL CLAIM OF 5 DESTROYED RUSSIAN MLRS.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in GOGOLEVKA, KURSK OBLAST, with POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN HIMARS STRIKE INSIDE BELGOROD OBLAST. POTENTIAL ESCALATION. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS HAVE BEGUN in RIYADH. UKRAINIAN DELEGATION PRESENT, but NOT PARTICIPATING. STATED US GOAL is a BLACK SEA CEASEFIRE and RETURN OF UKRAINIAN CHILDREN.
  • CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS TARGETING KYIV OBLAST, with CONFIRMED DAMAGE and FIRES.
  • CONTINUED FIGHTING near DEMIDOVKA, BELGOROD OBLAST, with CONFLICTING CLAIMS about CONTROL OF THE SETTLEMENT. RUSSIAN SOURCES DOWNPLAY UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES.
  • CONFIRMED DESTRUCTION OF A BRIDGE in GRAFOVKA, BELGOROD OBLAST.

• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT in areas with air raid alerts, specifically in SUMY, and POLTAVA OBLASTS.

• CLAIMED LAUNCHES OF GUIDED BOMBS in DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS.

• RUSSIAN ESPIONAGE ARREST. CONFIRMED LEAK OF SENSITIVE INFORMATION.

• REPORTED CASUALTIES from DRONE ATTACKS.

• RUSSIAN-US MEETING in RIYADH.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN BORDER CONTROL in SUMY DIRECTION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near USPENIVKA. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES on UKRAINIAN POSITIONS. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE INTERCEPTIONS. PARTIALLY CORROBORATED.
  • REPORTED FIGHTING in KURSK/SUMY REGION. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES.
  • Claimed destruction of 57/99 drones from Russia.
  • REPORTED LOGISTICS ISSUES at RZESZÓW AIRPORT, potentially impacting the FLOW OF WESTERN MILITARY AID. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • REPORTED US-RUSSIA MEETING in RIYADH.
  • CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF TWO UKRAINIAN LEOPARD TANKS in the POKROVSK DIRECTION. REQUIRES VIDEO ANALYSIS.
  • RUSSIAN CLAIMS of INTERCEPTING 28 UKRAINIAN DRONES overnight. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • CONFIRMED DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN NIKOPOL AND MARHANETS from RUSSIAN DRONE AND MLRS ATTACKS.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT of ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, as reported in the previous update.
  • RECON DRONES REPORTED ACTIVE in SUMY OBLAST.

• Reports of "Baba Yaga" drones being destroyed in Kharkiv region.

• REPORTED APOLOGY FROM AKIM APACHEV. SUGGESTS INTERNAL DISCORD.

• REPORTED CYBERATTACK ON "MOSTRANSAUTO" SERVERS.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES NEAR POKROVSK. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• CLAIMED SECOND DAY OF UKRAINIAN RAILWAYS WEBSITE DOWNTIME.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • UKRAINIAN TACTICAL HELMET THROW. LOW TACTICAL SIGNIFICANCE.
  • New scam reported by TACC

• TRAFFIC ACCIDENT in CRIMEA.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY CLAIMED UKRAINIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to IMMEDIATELY VERIFY the UKRAINIAN CLAIM of DESTROYING FOUR RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS in BELGOROD OBLAST.
     • UTILIZE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM THE STRIKE and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
     • CONTACT UKRAINIAN MILITARY SOURCES to OBTAIN ADDITIONAL DETAILS and EVIDENCE.
     • **ANALYZE RUSSIAN SOCIAL MEDIA and NEWS SOURCES for any ADMISSIONS OR DENIALS of the STRIKE.
   • IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RUSSIAN RETALIATION and PREPARE APPROPRIATE DEFENSIVE MEASURES.

2. MONITOR US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the CONTENT and PROGRESS of the NEGOTIATIONS.
     • **UTILIZE ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES, including HUMINT, SIGINT, and OSINT.
     • **COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES.
   • **ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of the NEGOTIATIONS on the MILITARY SITUATION in UKRAINE.
   • **PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS for VARIOUS POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, including a CEASEFIRE, a CONTINUATION OF HOSTILITIES, or a SHIFT IN RUSSIAN STRATEGY.

3. VERIFY AND ANALYZE CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of DRONE STRIKES in SUMY OBLAST and KURSK REGION.
     • **UTILIZE SATELLITE IMAGERY and DRONE RECONNAISSANCE to CONFIRM THE STRIKES and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
     • ANALYZE THE PROVIDED VIDEO to IDENTIFY THE TYPE OF DRONES and MUNITIONS USED.
     • **DETERMINE THE TARGETS of the STRIKES and ASSESS THEIR MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE.
   • IF THE CLAIM OF DESTROYING AN S-300 LOADER IS CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.

4. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains CRITICAL. The START OF US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, but the POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION remains HIGH due to the CLAIMED UKRAINIAN HELICOPTER STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA. VERIFYING THIS CLAIM is the TOP PRIORITY. CONTINUED VIGILANCE and RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

• Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted and destroyed 114 enemy UAVs.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The image is part of a psychological operation to boost morale and deter enemy drone operations.: 0.5
• The claimed number of destroyed drones is an exaggeration or fabrication for propaganda purposes.: 0.01
• France is providing significant military aid to Ukraine.: 0.59
• France is playing a key diplomatic role in the conflict.: 0.5
• Ukraine and France are coordinating their strategies closely.: 0.42
• Zelenskyy is attempting to publicly reinforce the image of strong international support.: 0.47
• : 0.29
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Akim Apachev has apologized for his actions in Sudzha.: 0.6
• "Mostransavto" servers were subjected to a hacker attack.: 0.75
• Ukrainian forces lost a number of elite units and Western equipment during counterattacks near Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name - Pokrovsk).: 0.4
• The "Ukrainian Railways" website has been down for a second day.: 0.8
• Russian forces will start fighting for Lobkovoye, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.7
• There is a threat of a ballistic missile attack in Sumy Oblast.: 0.8
• Ukrainian GUR and SSO units released footage of HIMARS strikes inside BELGOROD OBLAST. : 0.6
• Launches of guided bombs have been made in Donetsk and Sumy Regions.: 0.85
• Russian forces in the Sumy direction have restored control over a significant section of the state border.: 0.62
• An employee of a Russian supervisory body has been arrested for treason, for allegedly passing information to Ukraine about the protection of border infrastructure and the location of Russian Armed Forces.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russian forces advanced up to 400 meters in Uspenivka and occupied new positions in the southern part of the settlement.: 0.6
• Russian drone operators are targeting Ukrainian "burrows" (likely referring to dugouts or fortified positions) in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction.: 0.7
• The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted 29 Ukrainian drones overnight and in the morning.: 0.8
• Positional battles near Zhuravka continue, with Russian forces working on enemy rear areas.: 0.8
• Tula's 51st Airborne Regiment is fighting near Basovka and may be involved in an attempt to liberate the settlement.: 0.6
• Conditions are difficult near Guev, with Ukrainian forces occupying advantageous positions.: 0.7
• Russian forces have approached Vladimirovka in the Sumy region.: 0.6
• A closed meeting between Russians and Americans is taking place in Saudi Arabia.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• US-Russia negotiations regarding the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict have begun in Riyadh.: 1.0
• A loader for S-300 missiles in Ulyanovka, Sumy Oblast was destroyed with a "Lancet" loitering munition.: 0.4
• Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, in cooperation with GUR, Rocket Forces, and Artillery, destroyed two Russian Ka-52 and two Mi-8 helicopters in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.: 0.6
• US-Ukraine negotiations are ongoing.: 1.0
• The stated US goal is a ceasefire in the Black Sea and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.6
• 21 people were injured in an accident involving a bus in Crimea.: 1.0
• "Rubicon" FPV-drones hit personnel and armor in the Kursk Region.: 0.7
• High-speed targets are heading towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts.: 1.0