Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 22, 2025, 02:01 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (01:33 UTC - 02:01 UTC)

1. REPORTED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES IN BELGOROD OBLAST, RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MAPS):

   • РБК-Україна (01:54:24, multiple image posts and text): Reports UKRAINIAN ADVANCES in the WESTERN PART OF BELGOROD OBLAST, Russia, citing a new report from the INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR (ISW). Includes multiple maps illustrating the situation in various sectors.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS INSIDE RUSSIA. The ISW is a RELIABLE SOURCE, lending CREDIBILITY to the report. The MAPS provide FURTHER DETAIL, showing SPECIFIC AREAS of CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES. This represents a POTENTIAL ESCALATION and a SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICS of the CONFLICT. IT IS CRUCIAL TO NOTE that these are CLAIMS of ADVANCES, and FURTHER VERIFICATION is REQUIRED.

2. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SUMY OBLAST, UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MAPS):

   • РБК-Україна (01:54:24, multiple image posts and text): Reports RUSSIAN ADVANCES in SUMY OBLAST, Ukraine, also citing the ISW report.
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in the SUMY REGION. The ISW report and MAPS provide ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATION and DETAIL. This suggests a CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORT to APPLY PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES in the NORTH.

3. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK, TORETSK, AND POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MAPS):

   • РБК-Україна (01:54:24): Includes maps depicting Russian advances in the areas.

• Assessment: This INDICATES ESCALATION and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MULTIPLE REGIONS.

4. MAP ANALYSIS OF SPECIFIC SECTORS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, MAPS):

   • Kursk Direction (Map):

     • RUSSIAN CONTROL of most of KURSK OBLAST.
     • CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES inside Russia.
     • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES inside Russia (primarily Sumy Oblast).
     • RUSSIAN FIELD FORTIFICATIONS.
     • KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT marked as a STRATEGIC LOCATION.

   • Belgorod Direction (Map):

     • UKRAINIAN ADVANCES inside Russia (Belgorod Oblast), southwest of DEMIDOVKA.
     • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
     • SOME claimed RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

   • Kupyansk Direction (Map):

     • RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED Ukrainian territory.
     • ASSESSED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
     • CLAIMED RUSSIAN CONTROL.
     • SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING around SYNKIVKA, KYSLIVKA, ZAGRYZOVE, and VYSHNEVE.
     • RUSSIAN ADVANCES in southwestern DVORICHNA (geolocated footage).
     • OSKIL RIVER as a GEOGRAPHIC FEATURE.

   • Luhansk Oblast (Map):

     • Mostly RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED.
     • SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING in multiple areas.
     • ASSESSED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
     • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
     • RUSSIAN FIELD FORTIFICATIONS.
     • REPORTED UKRAINIAN PARTISAN WARFARE.

   • Toretsk Direction (Map):

     • RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED Ukrainian territory.
     • ASSESSED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
     • CLAIMED RUSSIAN CONTROL.
     • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
     • RUSSIAN ADVANCES on ENHELSA STREET and MYKHAILA HRUSHEVSKOHO STREET (geolocated footage).

   • Pokrovsk Direction (Map):

     • RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED Ukrainian territory.
     • ASSESSED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
     • UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
     • REPORTED UKRAINIAN PARTISAN WARFARE.
     • SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING in multiple areas.
     • RUSSIAN ADVANCES southwest of TARASIVKA and east of SHEVCHENKO (geolocated footage).

   • Kherson Direction (Map):

     • Mostly RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED.
     • UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES in MYKOLAIV OBLAST and western KHERSON OBLAST.
     • SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING.
     • REPORTED UKRAINIAN PARTISAN WARFARE.
     • RUSSIAN FIELD FORTIFICATIONS.
     • ZAPORIZHIA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT under RUSSIAN CONTROL.
     • KHERSON CITY under UKRAINIAN CONTROL.

   • Zaporizhzhia Direction (Map):

     • RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED Ukrainian territory.
     • ASSESSED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
     • CLAIMED RUSSIAN CONTROL.
     • SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING near MALI SHCHERBAKY.
     • RUSSIAN FIELD FORTIFICATIONS.
     • LAND EMERGING in KAKHOVKA RESERVOIR.

   • Donetsk Oblast (Map):

     • Mostly RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED.
     • SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING concentrated around POKROVSK, KURAKHOVE, and northern parts of DONETSK OBLAST.
     • ASSESSED RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
     • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
     • RUSSIAN FIELD FORTIFICATIONS.

   • Assessment: The maps COLLECTIVELY PAINT A PICTURE of a DYNAMIC AND CONTESTED BATTLEFIELD. RUSSIAN FORCES are MAKING ADVANCES in MULTIPLE SECTORS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST, and near KUPYANSK, TORETSK, and POKROVSK. UKRAINIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLY ADVANCING in BELGOROD OBLAST, RUSSIA, and CONDUCTING COUNTEROFFENSIVES and PARTISAN WARFARE in OTHER AREAS. The PRESENCE OF RUSSIAN FIELD FORTIFICATIONS suggests an EFFORT TO CONSOLIDATE GAINS.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES INSIDE BELGOROD OBLAST, RUSSIA. POTENTIAL ESCALATION. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in SUMY OBLAST, Ukraine. CONTINUED PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES.

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES near KUPYANSK, TORETSK, and POKROVSK.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER. CONFLICTING REPORTS of UKRAINIAN ADVANCES and RUSSIAN CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
  • RUSSIAN "ZAPAD" GROUPING claims DESTRUCTION of 3 STARLINK STATIONS and 25 UAV CONTROL POINTS. POTENTIALLY SEVERE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES, but REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN PLANS TO CAPTURE BELGOROD IN 2023. HIGHLY LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. * WITKOFF'S CLAIMS regarding CEASEFIRE, UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS, and TROOP SURROUNDINGS. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED. * CONFIRMED RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES in DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS. IMMEDIATE THREAT. * RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported near TORETSK, POKROVSK, VELYKA NOVOSILKA, IVANIVKA, YAMPOLIVKA, and in KURSK OBLAST. * CONTINUED FIRE at KAVKAZSKAYA OIL DEPOT after a SECONDARY EXPLOSION. TWO INJURED. FIRE NOW CONFIRMED TO BE ONGOING SINCE MARCH 19TH. * SHOIGU-KIM MEETING IN PYONGYANG. POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR INCREASE IN MILITARY COOPERATION. * ELON MUSK REPORTEDLY GAINING ACCESS TO US WAR PLANS. SERIOUS SECURITY CONCERNS.

• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES CONFIRMED in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.

• RUSSIAN FORCES claim START OF FIGHTING for KRASNE PERSHE.

  • RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY near SUMY.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVE in NORTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.

• REPORTS OF REMAINING DRONES near UMAN and POKROVSK. * POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING in the COMING MONTHS.

• TRUMP COMMENTS on POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE DEADLINE.

• RUSSIAN PRESSURE reported near KAMENKA.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES IN BELGOROD OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM or REFUTE the REPORTED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES.
     • PRIORITIZE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.
   • ASSESS THE SCALE AND SCOPE of any CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS inside RUSSIA.
   • EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RUSSIAN RETALIATION and ESCALATION.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for VARIOUS SCENARIOS, including INCREASED RUSSIAN CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS and POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT.

2. ADDRESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SUMY OBLAST AND OTHER SECTORS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in SUMY OBLAST and OTHER AREAS where RUSSIAN FORCES are ADVANCING.
   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL TROOPS AND EQUIPMENT as NEEDED.
   • CONDUCT COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPERATIONS where FEASIBLE to SLOW OR HALT RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • TARGET RUSSIAN SUPPLY LINES and REAR AREAS to DISRUPT THEIR OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT ACROSS ALL FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE AND AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY, ARTILLERY FIRE, and GROUND MOVEMENTS.
   • MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS.
   • PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to TROOPS and CIVILIANS.

4. ADDRESS THE WITKOFF CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY): All the other recommendations related to this issue are still valid.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is HIGHLY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES INSIDE RUSSIA represent a POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION, while CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MULTIPLE SECTORS indicate CONTINUED PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, and CAREFUL ASSESSMENT are CRITICAL.