Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 22, 2025, 01:30 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (00:01 UTC - 01:30 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN POSITIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Воин DV (00:02:13, 00:02:14): VIDEO. Claims Russian "Molniya" drone operators from the 71st Regiment are targeting Ukrainian equipment and positions near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The video shows strikes on buildings and open-field fortifications.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, specifically TARGETING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS near ORIKHIV. The video analysis suggests DESTRUCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE (buildings, likely command posts or storage) and DISRUPTION OF DEFENSIVE LINES (open-field fortifications). This INCREASES PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES in this KEY SECTOR.

2. RUSSIAN PRESSURE NEAR KAMENKA, KHARKIV OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (00:03:18): Reports that Russian forces are applying "serious pressure" on Ukrainian forces near Kamenka, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Andrey Marochko.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS INTENSIFIED FIGHTING and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KAMENKA AREA. Marochko is a KNOWN RUSSIAN MILITARY COMMENTATOR, so this report should be treated with SOME CAUTION, but it CORROBORATES previous reports of CONTINUED FIGHTING in the KUPYANSK AREA.

3. RUSSIAN POLITICAL APPOINTMENT IN NENETS AUTONOMOUS OKRUG (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (00:14:48): Reports the appointment of Irina Gekht as acting governor of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Gekht previously served as the Chairman of the Government of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT with LIMITED DIRECT IMPACT on the MILITARY SITUATION. However, Gekht's PREVIOUS ROLE in RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED ZAPORIZHZHIA suggests she is a LOYALIST and her appointment may be related to STRENGTHENING RUSSIAN CONTROL in OCCUPIED TERRITORIES and MOBILIZING RESOURCES for the WAR EFFORT.

4. POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (00:24:08): Reports that a meeting between Trump and Putin may occur in the coming months, citing US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, with POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for the CONFLICT. A MEETING between the TWO LEADERS could lead to NEGOTIATIONS or DE-ESCALATION, but it could also FURTHER COMPLICATE the SITUATION depending on the OUTCOME. It's IMPORTANT TO NOTE that this is SOURCED FROM TASS and ATTRIBUTED TO WITKOFF, and REQUIRES CONFIRMATION from OTHER SOURCES.

5. AIR RAID ALERTS LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (LOW PRIORITY):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (00:47:40): Reports the cancellation of the air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: Indicates a DECREASE in the IMMEDIATE THREAT of AIR ATTACKS in the REGION.

6. REPORTS OF REMAINING DRONES AND AIR ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (00:27:41): Reports remaining drones north of Uman (moving west) and at the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (moving towards Pokrovsk).
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:26:52): Reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of airstrikes for frontline regions. Also reports enemy drones in the west of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west.
   • РБК-Україна (00:28:47): Reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction.
   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED AERIAL THREATS, both from DRONES and MANNED AIRCRAFT. The REPORTS suggest MULTIPLE TARGET AREAS, including UMAN, POKROVSK, and FRONTLINE REGIONS in the NORTHEAST.

7. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR IVANIVKA AND YAMPOLIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (00:28:08): Reports that Russian forces have advanced near Ivanivka and Yampolivka.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS RUSSIAN GAINS in THESE AREAS. DEEPSTATE is a RELIABLE UKRAINIAN SOURCE, so this report is LIKELY ACCURATE. The LOCATIONS of IVANIVKA and YAMPOLIVKA are NOT SPECIFIED, but PREVIOUS REPORTS suggest FIGHTING in MULTIPLE SECTORS, including KUPYANSK and LYMAN.

8. RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES IN SUMY AND DONETSK OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:35:07, 00:39:17, 01:25:45): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
   • РБК-Україна (00:40:32, 01:27:23): Confirms reports of guided bomb launches in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE CONTINUATION of RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES using GUIDED BOMBS, TARGETING BOTH SUMY AND DONETSK OBLASTS. This INCREASES THE THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES and CIVILIAN AREAS in THESE REGIONS.

9. ROCKET THREAT IN KYIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, LATER LIFTED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:38:13, 00:41:41): Reports a rocket threat in Kyiv Oblast, then later reports the threat is over.
   • РБК-Україна (00:39:21, 00:42:43): Confirms the rocket threat and its subsequent cancellation.
   • Assessment: This indicates a BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT THREAT to KYIV OBLAST. The RAPID CANCELLATION suggests either a FALSE ALARM or a SUCCESSFUL INTERCEPTION.

10. TRUMP COMMENTS ON CEASEFIRE AND PUTIN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

    • РБК-Україна (00:54:08, 00:54:09): VIDEO. Reports that Trump suggested he might give Putin a deadline to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. He denies giving a deadline but says, "I think we will have one." He also denies that Putin rejected a 30-day ceasefire proposal.
    • Assessment: This SUGGESTS THAT TRUMP IS CONSIDERING a MORE ACTIVE ROLE in PUSHING FOR A CEASEFIRE. His comments are VAGUE and NON-COMMITTAL, but they indicate a POTENTIAL SHIFT in US POLICY.

11. WITKOFF'S CLAIMS ON CEASEFIRE AND UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (00:56:45): Reports several claims by US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff:
      • A Black Sea ceasefire agreement could be in effect within a week.
      • The "central issue of the conflict" is the recognition of Russian-occupied territories.
      • Zelensky and Yermak have almost acknowledged that Ukraine will not join NATO.
      • Ukrainian leadership has agreed to the necessity of holding presidential elections.
      • Recent Trump-Putin talks were not unsuccessful.
      • Ukrainian troops are surrounded in Kursk.
      • Russia has no plans to attack European countries.
      • Trump and Putin may meet in the coming months.
      • Witkoff says he "liked" Putin and found him "frank."
    • Assessment: These claims are HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT if TRUE, but they are SOURCED FROM A RUSSIAN OUTLET and ATTRIBUTED TO WITKOFF, and REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION. Many of these claims CONTRADICT PREVIOUS STATEMENTS and POSITIONS of UKRAINE and WESTERN ALLIES. The CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS BEING SURROUNDED IN KURSK is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.

12. RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM START OF FIGHTING FOR KRASNE PERSHE, KHARKIV OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (01:02:36): Reports that Russian forces have started fighting for the liberation of Krasne Pershe, Kharkiv Oblast, citing military expert Andrey Marochko.
    • Assessment: This INDICATES ESCALATION and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KHARKIV REGION. KRASNE PERSHE is likely the same KRASNE mentioned in PREVIOUS REPORTS near KUPYANSK. MAROCHKO'S STATEMENT suggests a NEW OFFENSIVE PUSH in this AREA.

13. RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY NEAR SUMY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:27:48): Reports activity of a reconnaissance drone near Sumy, with possible air defense activity.
    • РБК-Україна (01:29:06): Confirms the report of reconnaissance drone activity near Sumy.
    • Assessment: This indicates RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE GATHERING near SUMY, POTENTIALLY PRECEDING FURTHER ATTACKS.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER. CONFLICTING REPORTS of UKRAINIAN ADVANCES and RUSSIAN CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
  • RUSSIAN "ZAPAD" GROUPING claims DESTRUCTION of 3 STARLINK STATIONS and 25 UAV CONTROL POINTS. POTENTIALLY SEVERE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES, but REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN PLANS TO CAPTURE BELGOROD IN 2023. HIGHLY LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. * WITKOFF'S CLAIMS regarding CEASEFIRE, UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS, and TROOP SURROUNDINGS. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES in DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS. IMMEDIATE THREAT. * RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported near TORETSK, POKROVSK, VELYKA NOVOSILKA, IVANIVKA, YAMPOLIVKA, and in KURSK OBLAST. * CONTINUED FIRE at KAVKAZSKAYA OIL DEPOT after a SECONDARY EXPLOSION. TWO INJURED. FIRE NOW CONFIRMED TO BE ONGOING SINCE MARCH 19TH. * SHOIGU-KIM MEETING IN PYONGYANG. POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR INCREASE IN MILITARY COOPERATION. * ELON MUSK REPORTEDLY GAINING ACCESS TO US WAR PLANS. SERIOUS SECURITY CONCERNS.

• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES CONFIRMED in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.

• RUSSIAN FORCES claim START OF FIGHTING for KRASNE PERSHE.

  • RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY near SUMY.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVE in NORTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.

• REPORTS OF REMAINING DRONES near UMAN and POKROVSK. * POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING in the COMING MONTHS.

• TRUMP COMMENTS on POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE DEADLINE.

• RUSSIAN PRESSURE reported near KAMENKA.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY WITKOFF'S CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • SEEK IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION from UKRAINIAN and WESTERN SOURCES regarding ALL OF WITKOFF'S CLAIMS, especially those concerning a BLACK SEA CEASEFIRE, UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS ON NATO AND ELECTIONS, and UKRAINIAN TROOPS BEING SURROUNDED IN KURSK.
   • ANALYZE THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS of these CLAIMS on UKRAINIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS, PUBLIC OPINION, RELATIONS WITH WESTERN ALLIES, and the OVERALL CONFLICT.
   • DEVELOP A COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY to ADDRESS THESE CLAIMS and REITERATE UKRAINE'S POSITION on KEY ISSUES.

2. ADDRESS THE GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ISSUE IMMEDIATE WARNINGS to ALL UNITS and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in DONETSK and SUMY OBLASTS about the THREAT OF GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS.
   • DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to PROTECT POTENTIAL TARGETS, including FRONT-LINE POSITIONS, COMMAND POSTS, and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • ENHANCE SURVEILLANCE to DETECT AND TRACK INCOMING BOMBS and PROVIDE EARLY WARNING.

3. INVESTIGATE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM and ASSESS THE EXTENT of RUSSIAN ADVANCES near TORETSK, POKROVSK, VELYKA NOVOSILKA, IVANIVKA, YAMPOLIVKA, KRASNE PERSHE, and in KURSK OBLAST.
   • IDENTIFY VULNERABLE POINTS and REINFORCE DEFENSES where NECESSARY.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY.

4. MONITOR DRONE AND AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for DRONE AND AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, especially near UMAN, POKROVSK, SUMY, and FRONTLINE AREAS in the NORTHEAST.
   • DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to INTERCEPT INCOMING THREATS.
   • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS as NEEDED.

5. MONITOR THE SITUATION NEAR SUMY (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • Deploy air assets near Sumy to provide protection and counter-surveillance.

6. MONITOR POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • **CLOSELY MONITOR any DEVELOPMENTS related to a POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING.
   • ANALYZE TRUMP'S COMMENTS and ASSESS THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT on US POLICY and the CONFLICT.
   • COORDINATE WITH ALLIES to SHARE INTELLIGENCE and DEVELOP A UNIFIED RESPONSE.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. WITKOFF'S CLAIMS and the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and CONTINUED AERIAL THREATS necessitate CONSTANT MONITORING AND RAPID RESPONSE.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.9776
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed