Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 21, 2025, 11:29 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:00 UTC - 11:29 UTC)

1. CLAIMED RUSSIAN FPV DRONE TRAINING IN TRANSNISTRIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (11:00 UTC): Claims Russian military personnel are training with FPV drones in occupied Transnistria. Claims new EW equipment and drones are being smuggled into the region. Asserts Transnistria is used as a base for training saboteurs operating in Ukraine. Provides Video.
   • Assessment: This is a CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT if VERIFIED. It suggests a POTENTIAL EXPANSION of the DRONE THREAT from a NEW DIRECTION (west of Odesa). The claim of SABOTEUR TRAINING is SERIOUS and REQUIRES INVESTIGATION. The VIDEO shows a PERSON in MILITARY UNIFORM operating a COMPUTER with a VR HEADSET. This SUGGESTS VR-BASED DRONE TRAINING. VERIFICATION NEEDED.

2. RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ORDERS ON DRONE DEVELOPMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (11:03 UTC, 11:04 UTC, 11:09 UTC, 11:24 UTC): Reports multiple orders from Putin regarding drone development:
     • Accelerated development of the drone industry to achieve technological leadership by 2030.
     • Creation of a unified system for real-time drone identification.
     • Expansion of experimental legal regimes for drone use by June 2025.
     • Establishment of a new airspace class simplified for drones.
     • Increased funding for low-orbit satellite constellations for drone control.
     • Organization of an international drone forum by September 2025.
     • More efficient use of dual-use technologies in the drone industry.
     • Creation of an effective government management system in the field of unmanned aviation by June 15, 2025.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. Russia is PRIORITIZING and INVESTING HEAVILY in DRONE TECHNOLOGY. This has SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS for the WAR IN UKRAINE:
     • INCREASED RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT across the ENTIRE FRONT.
     • POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOPHISTICATED DRONE ATTACKS (swarm technology, AI-guided targeting).
     • NEED FOR UKRAINE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES.
     • POTENTIAL FOR RUSSIA TO EXPORT DRONE TECHNOLOGY to ALLIES.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPON USE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:03 UTC): Claims the enemy (presumably Ukraine) used poisonous substances, resulting in the evacuation of a soldier with extensive lung edema. Advises soldiers to carry gas masks. Provides Image.
   • Assessment: This claim has a low level of belief. The image shows an injured soldier.

4. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, NEEDS VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad (11:03 UTC): Claims Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces out of Zherebyanky and are continuing fighting in Lobkove, Shcherbaky, and Mali Shcherbaky. Provides Map and Images.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

5. INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE UAV ACTIVITY, POSSIBLE AIR DEFENCE WORK (EXTREME, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine(11:27 UTC): Reports an increase in enemy reconnaissance in multiple areas.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:29 UTC): Reports the same as above.
   • Assessment: Increased reconnaissance activity indicates increased danger.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ORDERS indicate a MAJOR PUSH for DRONE DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
    • CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • SUDZHA GAS STATION ATTACK officially declared a TERRORIST ACT by RUSSIA. RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE claims it was a DELIBERATE PROVOCATION by UKRAINE.
  • CLAIMED DISRUPTION OF GAS TRANSIT through SUDZHA. POTENTIALLY MAJOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS.
  • MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACK overnight, using DRONES and GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS. CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE confirmed by ZELENSKY.
  • INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY in DNIPROPETROVSK, KHARKIV, SUMY, CHERNIHIV, and KHERSON OBLASTS.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN FPV DRONE TRAINING in TRANSNISTRIA. POTENTIAL NEW THREAT AXIS.
  • CONTINUED FIGHTING on the BELGOROD BORDER.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • Reports of a meeting between Shoigu and Kim Jong Un.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • ALLEGED RUSSIAN COERCION TACTIC targeting UKRAINIANS with PASSPORTS.
  • Reported sentencing of Alexander Skobov.
  • Reports about the death of Vadim Zhuk.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SUDZHA GAS STATION INCIDENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Maintain all previous recommendations.

2. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY ATTEMPT TO VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in BOTH THE SOUTH DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA DIRECTIONS.
     • PRIORITIZE ANALYSIS of any AVAILABLE IMAGERY OR VIDEO EVIDENCE.
     • USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES, including IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE, HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, and SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE.
     • CROSS-REFERENCE with UKRAINIAN REPORTS and OPEN-SOURCE INFORMATION.
   • IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES in the AFFECTED AREAS.
   • DEVELOP PLANS to COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PREVENT FURTHER LOSS OF TERRITORY.

3. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN PUSH FOR DRONE DEVELOPMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, LONG-TERM STRATEGY):

   • ACCELERATE UKRAINIAN DRONE DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT. * INCREASE FUNDING AND RESOURCES for DOMESTIC DRONE PRODUCTION. * SEEK ASSISTANCE FROM ALLIES in ACQUIRING ADVANCED DRONE TECHNOLOGY. * STREAMLINE THE PROCESS for TESTING AND DEPLOYING NEW DRONE SYSTEMS.
   • PRIORITIZE COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES.
     • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE COUNTER-DRONE SYSTEMS, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE, KINETIC INTERCEPTORS, and DRONE-MOUNTED INTERCEPTORS.
     • DEVELOP NEW COUNTER-DRONE TECHNOLOGIES, focusing on DETECTING AND NEUTRALIZING SMALL, FAST DRONES.
     • IMPROVE TRAINING for AIR DEFENSE PERSONNEL on COUNTER-DRONE TACTICS.
   • DEVELOP A COMPREHENSIVE DRONE IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM.
     • INVEST IN TECHNOLOGIES to DETECT, TRACK, AND IDENTIFY DRONES in REAL-TIME.
     • COORDINATE WITH ALLIES to SHARE DRONE IDENTIFICATION DATA.
     • DEVELOP PROTOCOLS for RESPONDING TO DIFFERENT TYPES OF DRONE THREATS.
   • MONITOR RUSSIAN DRONE DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.
     • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN DRONE PRODUCTION FACILITIES, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS, and DEPLOYMENT PATTERNS.
     • ANALYZE RUSSIAN DRONE TECHNOLOGY to IDENTIFY VULNERABILITIES and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.
   • ESTABLISH CLEAR RULES OF ENGAGEMENT for DEALING WITH UNIDENTIFIED DRONES.

4. VERIFY AND ADDRESS THE TRANSNISTRIA SITUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY ATTEMPT TO VERIFY the CLAIM of RUSSIAN FPV DRONE TRAINING in TRANSNISTRIA.
     • USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES, including IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE, HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, and SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE.
     • COORDINATE WITH MOLDOVAN AUTHORITIES to SHARE INFORMATION and INVESTIGATE THE SITUATION.
   • IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE THREAT posed by DRONES OPERATING FROM TRANSNISTRIA.
   • DEVELOP PLANS to COUNTER THIS THREAT, including INCREASING AIR DEFENSE COVERAGE along the WESTERN BORDER with MOLDOVA.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ORDERS regarding DRONE DEVELOPMENT represent a MAJOR SHIFT and a SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM THREAT. UKRAINE MUST RESPOND RAPIDLY AND EFFECTIVELY to MITIGATE THIS THREAT. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the SUDZHA GAS STATION INCIDENT, and the POTENTIAL THREAT FROM TRANSNISTRIA also require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INFORMATION, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• A drone attacked the presidential palace in Khartoum, resulting in casualties.: 0.624
• Russian troops continue to advance towards Bogatyr, creating logistical challenges for the enemy.: 0.4416
• The enemy is attempting counterattacks south of Veseloye.: 0.4416
• Russian forces are advancing on the line between Volnoye Pole and Novoselka.: 0.3792
• Ukrainian equipment losses in the Kursk region exceed 1000 units and continue to increase.: 0.1
• Russian aviation launched a precise strike on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Berestok, resulting in personnel losses.: 0.49
• A Ukrainian drone from the "Prymary" unit successfully evaded a missile attack.: 0.5776
• Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted and destroyed 114 enemy UAVs.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The image is part of a psychological operation to boost morale and deter enemy drone operations.: 0.5
• The claimed number of destroyed drones is an exaggeration or fabrication for propaganda purposes.: 0.01
• France is providing significant military aid to Ukraine.: 0.59
• France is playing a key diplomatic role in the conflict.: 0.5
• Ukraine and France are coordinating their strategies closely.: 0.42
• Zelenskyy is attempting to publicly reinforce the image of strong international support.: 0.47
• : 0.29
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
• Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
• Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
• The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
• Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
• The reports

Response from 2025-03-19 02:03:11 (6h-3d old):

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 02:02 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (01:34 UTC - 02:02 UTC)

1. DRONE THREAT, POLTAVA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:44 UTC): Reports a threat of enemy attack drones in POLTAVA.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE ACTIVITY. The THREAT now ENCOMPASSES POLTAVA, in ADDITION to PREVIOUSLY REPORTED AREAS.

2. POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON OIL DEPOT, KAVKAZSKAYA, RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (01:45 UTC): MULTIPLE VIDEOS. Reports that an oil depot is burning in KAVKAZSKAYA, KRASNODAR KRAI, RUSSIA, after a drone attack. Mentions a nearby oil pumping station ("Kropotkinskaya") that was reportedly disabled on February 17, 2025.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY A UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK. The LOCATION, TARGET, and TIMING are CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKES on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The MULTIPLE VIDEOS INCREASE THE CREDIBILITY of the REPORT. The REFERENCE to the PREVIOUSLY DISABLED PUMPING STATION suggests a PATTERN OF TARGETING ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE in this REGION.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE. DETAILED TRAJECTORIES CONFIRMED, indicating a MULTI-DIRECTIONAL THREAT. NEW THREATS to CHERNIHIV, SUMY, and POLTAVA.
  • IMMINENT DRONE THREAT to DNIPRO, KHARKIV, and POLTAVA.
  • INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY IN DNIPROPETROVSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and KHARKIV OBLASTS.
  • INCREASED THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES using AIR-LAUNCHED WEAPONS for FRONTLINE REGIONS, specifically DONETSK, SUMY, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS. CONFIRMED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK on KRASNOPIL HOSPITAL, SUMY OBLAST. POTENTIAL WAR CRIME. SECOND HOSPITAL HIT overnight.
  • UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH, *SA