Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 20, 2025, 10:53 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (10:23 UTC - 10:53 UTC)

1. ENGELS-2 AIRBASE ATTACK CONFIRMATION AND AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:21 UTC, 10:23 UTC): Officially CONFIRMS the UKRAINIAN STRIKE on ENGELS-2 AIRBASE, stating it was a JOINT OPERATION by SSO, SBU, and other DEFENSE FORCES. Reports FIRE, EXPLOSIONS, and SECONDARY DETONATIONS. Claims DETAILED INFORMATION on RUSSIAN STRATEGIC TARGETS and ADHERENCE TO INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW.
   • Tsaplienko_Ukraine_Fights (10:16 UTC, 10:17 UTC, 10:39 UTC): Reports MULTIPLE DRONE STRIKES on ENGELS-2. Claims INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE resulted in RUSSIAN MISSILES hitting CIVILIAN BUILDINGS in ENGELS and SARATOV. Claims the attack REDUCED RUSSIA'S ABILITY TO TERRORIZE UKRAINIAN CITIES.
   • РБК-Україна (10:16 UTC, 10:25 UTC): Reports the attack as a JOINT OPERATION by SBU and SSO. Claims ENGELS-2 is a KEY BASE for RUSSIAN STRATEGIC AVIATION (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and STORAGE FOR FAB, KAB, AND CRUISE MISSILES. Reports FIRE, EXPLOSIONS, and SECONDARY DETONATIONS.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ(10:23): Similar claims to РБК-Україна.
   • Assessment: The UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF'S OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION of the JOINT OPERATION is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. The REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE, while potentially biased, are CONSISTENT across MULTIPLE SOURCES and PLAUSIBLE given the SCALE AND NATURE of the ATTACK. The CLAIMED COLLATERAL DAMAGE from RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE is a SERIOUS CONCERN and REQUIRES INVESTIGATION. This confirms that the Engels-2 Airbase is of HIGH STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE.

2. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine(10:50 UTC): Reports threat of ballistic missiles.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports a missile over Donetsk, heading towards Kharkiv.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (10:51 UTC, 10:52 UTC): AIR RAID ALERTS across ALL OF ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. Reports THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE STRIKES.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS HIGH THREAT of BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA, DONETSK and potentially KHARKIV OBLASTS. URGENT ACTION REQUIRED to PROTECT CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.

3. BELGOROD BORDER FIGHTING UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Старше Эдды (10:21 UTC): Reports INTENSE FIGHTING in KRASNOYARUZHSKY DISTRICT, with HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES in EQUIPMENT. Describes tactics: ATTACK, DISEMBARK INFANTRY, LOSE EQUIPMENT, INFANTRY DESTROYED.
   • Рыбарь (10:18 UTC): Reports CONTINUED FIGHTING along the BELGOROD BORDER, with UKRAINIAN ADVANCES near DEMIDOVKA and REPYAKHOVKA. Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES have GAINED GROUND in FORESTED AREAS near PRILISYA. Reports RUSSIAN ARTILLERY and AVIATION working against UKRAINIAN FORCES.

• Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (10:04): Reports on the ongoing events of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region.
• Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition(10:54) Reports on prisoners of war from Russia and Ukraine. * Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, particularly in the KRASNOYARUZHSKY DISTRICT. CONFLICTING REPORTS on UKRAINIAN ADVANCES, with RUSSIAN SOURCES claiming HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES and REPELLED ATTACKS. The USE OF FORESTED AREAS for INFILTRATION is a CONSISTENT THEME.

4. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRG ACTIVITY NEAR HORLIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (10:22 UTC): Reports, with video, a UKRAINIAN DRG infiltrating RUSSIAN REAR near HORLIVKA and DESTROYING A GROUP OF RUSSIANS in THREE VEHICLES.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. IF TRUE, this would indicate CONTINUED UKRAINIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS BEHIND ENEMY LINES, aimed at DISRUPTING RUSSIAN OPERATIONS and INFLICTING CASUALTIES.

5. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (REPORTED):

   • Colonelcassad: Reports Russian military advances towards Lobkove.
   • Assessment: POSSIBLY, needs further verification.

6. OTHER UPDATES:

   • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (10:17 UTC): Reports AVERAGE EVACUATION TIME of WOUNDED SOLDIERS increased to 14.5 HOURS in 2024, compared to 4.5 HOURS previously. Claims only 12% receive surgical care within recommended 2-HOUR WINDOW. IF CONFIRMED, this represents a SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION in RUSSIAN MEDICAL CAPABILITIES and a SERIOUS THREAT to SOLDIER SURVIVAL.

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ: Reports Ukrainian forces from the SSO and SBU, in coordination with other parts of the defence forces, attacked the Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast, RF, last night (March 20). Reports that the location suffered a fire, explosions, and secondary detonation of munitions.

   • Assessment: Confirmed.

   • ТАСС (10:07 UTC): Reports Kaja Kallas confirms EU summit will consider 5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, not 40 billion as originally proposed.

   • ТАСС(10:08 UTC): Reports Putin sent a message to the head of the Syrian state, Ahmed al-Shaara.

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (10:08 UTC): Reports MULTIPLE "ARRIVALS" (strikes) in KRAMATORSK, targeting areas near the SBU GARAGES and a FORMER KINDERGARTEN. CONFIRMS RUSSIAN STRIKES on KRAMATORSK. The SPECIFIC TARGETS suggest POTENTIAL MILITARY OR SECURITY INFRASTRUCTURE, but ALSO raise CONCERNS about POTENTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES or DAMAGE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

  • НгП раZVедка (10:13 UTC): Describes UKRAINIAN TACTICS similar to those used in KRYNKY, with SMALL GROUPS attempting to GAIN A FOOTHOLD despite HEAVY LOSSES. Claims POLITICAL, not MILITARY, objective. POSSIBLE, but REQUIRES FURTHER ANALYSIS.

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:13 UTC): AIR RAID ALERTS OVER ALL OBLASTS.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON ENGELS-2 AIRBASE: OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED by the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF as a JOINT OPERATION. REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE, including FIRE, EXPLOSIONS, and SECONDARY DETONATIONS. POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF RUSSIAN STRATEGIC AVIATION CAPABILITIES. CLAIMS OF INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE and COLLATERAL DAMAGE require URGENT INVESTIGATION. This represents a MAJOR UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DEGRADING RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES.
  • BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT in ZAPORIZHZHIA, DONETSK and potentially KHARKIV OBLASTS. AIR RAID ALERTS in EFFECT.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, particularly in the KRASNOYARUZHSKY DISTRICT. CONFLICTING REPORTS on UKRAINIAN ADVANCES. RUSSIAN SOURCES claim HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE on UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAIN. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • REPORTED INCREASED EVACUATION TIME of RUSSIAN WOUNDED SOLDIERS. POTENTIAL INDICATION OF DEGRADED MEDICAL CAPABILITIES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• RUSSIAN STRIKES on KRAMATORSK.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES NEAR CHASIV YAR

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRG ACTIVITY near HORLIVKA. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE ENGELS-2 AIRBASE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • GATHER FULL INTELLIGENCE on the EXTENT OF DAMAGE to ENGELS-2 AIRBASE, including:
     • Number and type of aircraft damaged or destroyed.
     • Damage to runways, fuel depots, and other infrastructure.
     • Impact on operational readiness of strategic aviation.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES to LAUNCH MISSILE STRIKES against UKRAINE.
   • INVESTIGATE the CLAIMS OF INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE and COLLATERAL DAMAGE from RUSSIAN MISSILES.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION, including INCREASED MISSILE STRIKES on UKRAINIAN CITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • REINFORCE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS around CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • ENHANCE EARLY WARNING CAPABILITIES to DETECT and RESPOND to INCOMING THREATS.
   • DISPERSE KEY ASSETS to REDUCE VULNERABILITY to SINGLE STRIKES.

2. RESPOND TO THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN AIR RAID ALERTS in AFFECTED AREAS until the THREAT HAS PASSED.
   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS to INTERCEPT INCOMING MISSILES.
   • PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • MONITOR RADAR and OTHER SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS for ANY SIGNS OF MISSILE LAUNCHES.

3. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR THE BELGOROD BORDER(HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION closely.
   • REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS along the BELGOROD BORDER, anticipating MULTIPLE POINTS OF ATTACK.
   • PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in BORDER AREAS.
   • EMPLOY COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE against RUSSIAN ARTILLERY POSITIONS.
   • UTILIZE DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE and TARGETING.

4. VERIFY THE RUSSIAN STRIKE ON THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAIN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE.
     • Use IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE, HUMINT, and SIGINT.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES.

5. INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED INCREASE IN WOUNDED SOLDIERS EVACUATION TIME(HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • GATHER INFORMATION AND VERIFY REPORTS.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MILITARY MORALE AND OPERATIONS.

6. ADDRESS AND VERIFY UKRAINIAN DRG ACTIVITY NEAR HORLIVKA(MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • GATHER INFORMATION AND VERIFY REPORTS.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MILITARY MORALE AND OPERATIONS.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED, MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on ENGELS-2 AIRBASE and the IMMINENT BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT are CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS. PROTECTING CIVILIANS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE remains PARAMOUNT.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.0
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• Ballistic missile strike is imminent in other regions of Ukraine where an air raid alert has been declared.: 0.87
• Ballistic missile strike is imminent in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.89
• Ballistic missile strike is imminent in Donetsk Oblast.: 0.62
• Ballistic missile strike is imminent in Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.49
• The alert is a false alarm or a precautionary measure with no actual imminent strike.: 0.05
• Ukrainian DRG infiltrated Russian rear near Horlivka and destroyed a group of Russians in three vehicles.: 0.5
• The average evacuation time of wounded Russian soldiers increased to 14.5 hours in 2024, compared to 4.5 hours previously.: 0.7
• Only 12% of severely wounded Russian soldiers receive surgical care within the recommended 2-hour window.: 0.69
• Ukrainian drone strike on Engels-2 Airbase was a joint operation by SSO, SBU, and other Defense Forces.: 0.98
• The attack caused fire, explosions, and secondary detonations at the airbase.: 0.97
• Russian air defense systems were ineffective during the attack.: 0.96
• Russian missiles hit civilian buildings and infrastructure in Engels and Saratov.: 0.9
• The attack reduced Russia's ability to terrorize Ukrainian cities.: 0.72
• Engels-2 Airbase is a key base for Russian strategic aviation (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and storage for FAB, KAB, and cruise missiles.: 0.9
• Intense fighting continues in Krasnoyaruzhsky district, Belgorod Oblast.: 0.82
• Ukrainian forces are using forested areas for infiltration near the Belgorod border.: 0.8
• Russian sources claim heavy Ukrainian losses and repelled attacks in the Belgorod area.: 0.75
• There are conflicting reports on Ukrainian advances near the Belgorod border.: 0.34
• Ukrainian DRG activity is disrupting Russian operations and inflicting casualties.: 0.18
• Russian forces are claiming to have repelled multiple Ukrainian attacks and inflicted heavy losses on equipment near the Demidovka in Belgorod.: 0.65
• The situation along the Belgorod border remains complex and contested.: 0.3
• Russia is using artillery and aviation against Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod area.: 0.75
• Ukrainian forces have gained ground in forested areas near Prilis