Updated Analysis of the Military Situation: March 20, 2025, 10:23 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (09:55 UTC - 10:23 UTC)

1. ENGELS-2 AIRBASE ATTACK CONFIRMATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Tsaplienko_Ukraine_Fights (09:57 UTC, 10:16 UTC, 10:17 UTC), RBC-Ukraine (10:16 UTC), General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:21 UTC): Confirm UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE on ENGELS-2 AIRBASE, SARATOV OBLAST, a KEY BASE for RUSSIAN STRATEGIC AVIATION. Claims a JOINT OPERATION by SBU and SSO. Reports FIRE, EXPLOSIONS, and SECONDARY DETONATIONS. Claims INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE, with RUSSIAN MISSILES allegedly hitting CIVILIAN BUILDINGS in ENGELS and SARATOV. Claims the attack REDUCED RUSSIA'S ABILITY TO TERRORIZE UKRAINIAN CITIES.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. CONFIRMS a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN STRIKE DEEP INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, targeting a CRITICAL MILITARY ASSET. The CLAIMS OF DAMAGE AND INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE require VERIFICATION, but are PLAUSIBLE given the reported INTENSITY of the ATTACK. This represents a MAJOR SUCCESS for UKRAINE and a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES and MORALE. The CLAIMED COLLATERAL DAMAGE from RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE is a SERIOUS CONCERN and REQUIRES INVESTIGATION.

2. KRAMATORSK STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Diary of a Paratrooper (10:08 UTC): Reports MULTIPLE "ARRIVALS" (strikes) in KRAMATORSK, targeting areas near the SBU GARAGES and a FORMER KINDERGARTEN.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS RUSSIAN STRIKES on KRAMATORSK. The SPECIFIC TARGETS suggest POTENTIAL MILITARY OR SECURITY INFRASTRUCTURE, but ALSO raise CONCERNS about POTENTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES or DAMAGE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

3. BELGOROD BORDER FIGHTING UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Diary of a Paratrooper (09:43 UTC): Reports continued attempts by enemy forces to attack Russian territory, with focus on DEMIDOVKA. Claims SMALL GROUPS operating in FORESTED AREAS. Reports RUSSIAN FORCES working to PREVENT BORDER BREACH.
   • Operation Z: Voenkor of the Russian Spring (09:52 UTC): Reports continued enemy offensive in the BELGOROD DIRECTION, targeting DEMIDOVKA, LIPSY, PRILESYE, and GRAFOVKA. Claims clashes in WOODED AREAS. Reports RUSSIAN MOD figures of UKRAINIAN LOSSES: 4 tanks, 19 armored vehicles, and up to 150 personnel. Claims INFANTRY and QUAD BIKE use.
   • STERNENKO (09:54 UTC): Reports on the DIFFICULT SITUATION on the border with BELGOROD OBLAST.
   • NgP raZVEdka (10:13 UTC): Describes UKRAINIAN TACTICS similar to those used in KRYNKY, with SMALL GROUPS attempting to GAIN A FOOTHOLD despite HEAVY LOSSES. Claims POLITICAL, not MILITARY, objective.
   • Starshe Eddy (10:21 UTC): Reports INTENSE FIGHTING in KRASNOYARUZHSKY DISTRICT, with HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES in EQUIPMENT. Describes similar tactics: ATTACK, DISEMBARK INFANTRY, LOSE EQUIPMENT, INFANTRY DESTROYED.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, with MULTIPLE POINTS OF ATTACK. The CONSISTENT REPORTS of SMALL GROUP TACTICS, USE OF FORESTED AREAS, and HIGH UKRAINIAN LOSSES paint a CLEAR PICTURE of the CURRENT SITUATION. The CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES should be TREATED WITH CAUTION, but are POSSIBLE given the REPORTED INTENSITY of the FIGHTING and the RUSSIAN COUNTERMEASURES. The FOCUS ON DEMIDOVKA is NOTEWORTHY. The ALLEGED POLITICAL MOTIVATION behind the UKRAINIAN ATTACKS is PLAUSIBLE, but REQUIRES FURTHER ANALYSIS.

4. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRG ACTIVITY NEAR HORLIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • BUTUSOV PLUS (10:22 UTC): Reports, with video, a UKRAINIAN DRG infiltrating RUSSIAN REAR near HORLIVKA and DESTROYING A GROUP OF RUSSIANS in THREE VEHICLES.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. IF TRUE, this would indicate CONTINUED UKRAINIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS BEHIND ENEMY LINES, aimed at DISRUPTING RUSSIAN OPERATIONS and INFLICTING CASUALTIES.

5. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAIN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (09:37 UTC): Claims Russian forces struck a Ukrainian military train carrying ammunition and weapons in the past 24 hours.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. IF TRUE, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.

6. UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:32 UTC): Reports enemy UAVs in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE.

7. RUSSIAN AIR STRIKE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:27 UTC): Reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:13 UTC): AIR RAID ALERTS OVER ACROSS ALL OBLASTS.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS HIGH THREAT of RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES.

8. INCREASED EVACUATION TIME OF WOUNDED SOLDIERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MOBILIZATION I News I Conscripts (10:17 UTC): Reports average evacuation time of wounded soldiers increased to 14.5 hours in 2024, compared to 4.5 hours previously. Claims only 12% receive surgical care within recommended 2-hour window.
   • Assesment: IF CONFIRMED, this represents a SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION in RUSSIAN MEDICAL CAPABILITIES and a SERIOUS THREAT to SOLDIER SURVIVAL.

9. OTHER REPORTS:

   • Diary of a Paratrooper: Reports IED was discovered and disarmed.

   • TASS (09:23, 09:32 UTC): Reports on the creation of a rare earth metals fund for foreign investors, and deletion of material related to the Holocaust and the September 11 attacks from the Pentagon website. NO IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT.

   • TASS(09:45, 09:46 UTC): Reports Putin is invited to visit Turkey, and there will be no Putin-Erdogan communications this week.

• TASS (10:07 UTC): Reports Kaja Kallas confirms EU summit will consider 5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, not 40 billion as originally proposed.
• TASS(10:08 UTC): Reports Putin sent a message to the head of the Syrian state, Ahmed al-Shaara.

*   *ARCHANGEL OF SPECIAL FORCES* (09:46): Reports the destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck, possibly with supplies. *VERIFY LOCATION*.

*   *Moscow News* (09:47 UTC): Reports on registration for Moscow's "Night of Theaters" event. *NO IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT*.

*   *RBC-Ukraine* (09:47 UTC): Reports on protests in Turkey following the arrest of Istanbul's mayor. *NO IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT*.

• RBC-Ukraine (09:57 UTC): Reports ZELENSKY arrived in NORWAY.

  • Operative Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:48 UTC): Reports Lithuanian president's statement on Russia's potential attack on NATO countries within 4-5 years (or sooner without sanctions). SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM CONCERN.

  • Colonelcassad (09:22): Accusations that Ukrainian forces are losing equipment due to bad planning.

• Colonelcassad (10:11 UTC): Reports airstrikes on Kramatorsk.

*   *Assault troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine*(09:26): Reports on usage statistics of Arrmia+ by the Assault Forces.

*   *RBC-Ukraine* (09:27): Reports on Ukrainian National Guard. *NO IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT*.

*   *Creamy whim* (09:29 UTC): Reports Russian advances. *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*.

*   *Warrior DV* (09:30 UTC): Claims the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point in Hulyaipole by Russian forces. *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*.

• Fighterbomber (09:53 UTC): Discusses airplane parachutes, claims a shot down Ukrainian F-16.
• Fighterbomber (10:20 UTC): Mocks claims of shot down F-16
• Alex Parker Returns (09:57 UTC): Criticizes alleged false claim of downing an F-16, accusing Russian leadership of "eyewash".

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON ENGELS-2 AIRBASE: CONFIRMED DAMAGE to INFRASTRUCTURE, POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO STRATEGIC BOMBERS, CONFIRMED LOSS OF KH-101 MISSILES, and POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF KH-101 MISSILE SUPPLIES. EMERGENCY SITUATION DECLARED. CONTINUED DETONATIONS REPORTED. This represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DEGRADING RUSSIAN STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES. GROWING INTERNAL CRITICISM of RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP.
  • CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE: ZELENSKY REPORTS nearly 200 "SHAHEDS" and DRONE IMITATORS launched OVERNIGHT.
  • MASSIVE ATTACK ON KIROVOHRAD REGION: 10 INJURED, including FOUR CHILDREN. DAMAGE to RESIDENCES, a CHURCH, and INFRASTRUCTURE.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, particularly on KRAMATORSK, with REPORTED MULTIPLE "ARRIVALS" and CONFIRMED CASUALTIES. THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST and Donetsk region.
  • CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, with MULTIPLE POINTS OF ATTACK reported by RUSSIAN SOURCES.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNR BORDER AREA, with a REPORTED GOAL OF REACHING VESELOE.
  • CONTINUED THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES from TACTICAL AVIATION in the NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN DIRECTIONS.
  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES NEAR CHASIV YAR
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE on UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAIN.

• INCREASED EVACUATION TIME OF WOUNDED SOLDIERS

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED CAPTURE of US-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT in the KURSK REGION.
  • RUSSIAN ARREST of an ALLEGED SPY in CRIMEA.
  • REPORTED MASSIVE INTERNET OUTAGE in RUSSIA. CAUSE UNCLEAR, but POTENTIAL CYBERATTACK.
  • CLAIMED DESTRUCTION of RUSSIAN BM-21 "GRAD" in the SOUTH. VIDEO EVIDENCE.
  • UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY in MULTIPLE OBLASTS.

• REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRG ACTIVITY near HORLIVKA.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE ENGELS-2 AIRBASE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • GATHER FULL INTELLIGENCE on the EXTENT OF DAMAGE to ENGELS-2 AIRBASE, including:
     • Number and type of aircraft damaged or destroyed.
     • Damage to runways, fuel depots, and other infrastructure.
     • Impact on operational readiness of strategic aviation.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES to LAUNCH MISSILE STRIKES against UKRAINE.
   • INVESTIGATE the CLAIMS OF INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE and COLLATERAL DAMAGE from RUSSIAN MISSILES.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION, including INCREASED MISSILE STRIKES on UKRAINIAN CITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • REINFORCE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS around CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • ENHANCE EARLY WARNING CAPABILITIES to DETECT and RESPOND to INCOMING THREATS.
   • DISPERSE KEY ASSETS to REDUCE VULNERABILITY to SINGLE STRIKES.

2. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR THE BELGOROD BORDER(HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS along the BELGOROD BORDER, anticipating MULTIPLE POINTS OF ATTACK.
   • PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in BORDER AREAS.
   • EMPLOY COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE against RUSSIAN ARTILLERY POSITIONS.
   • UTILIZE DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE and TARGETING.

3. VERIFY THE RUSSIAN STRIKE ON THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAIN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• GATHER INTELLIGENCE from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE.
  • Use IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE, HUMINT, and SIGINT.
• ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES.

4. MONITOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

• MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in AFFECTED AREAS.
• **PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

5. INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED INCREASE IN WOUNDED SOLDIERS EVACUATION TIME(HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• GATHER INFORMATION AND VERIFY REPORTS.
• ASSESS THE IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MILITARY MORALE AND OPERATIONS.

6. ADDRESS AND VERIFY UKRAINIAN DRG ACTIVITY NEAR HORLIVKA(MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• GATHER INFORMATION AND VERIFY REPORTS.
• ASSESS THE IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MILITARY MORALE AND OPERATIONS.

7. MAINTAIN RESPONSE TO UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY): Maintain all recommendations.

8. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED, MAJOR UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on ENGELS-2 AIRBASE, and the REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES ON KRAMATORSK, are the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNR BORDER AREA and CLAIMS OF FIGHTING in BELGOROD require IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION. PROTECTING CIVILIANS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE remains PARAMOUNT.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs

Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.0
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7