Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 22:32 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (22:01 UTC - 22:32 UTC)

CONTINUED, INTENSE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:28 UTC): Provides a comprehensive update on drone activity across multiple regions, indicating:
  - 1 drone near Dnipro, heading south.
  - 2 drones south of Pavlohrad.
  - 1 drone moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
  - 1 drone east of Poltava.
  - 1 drone south of Sumy.
  - 2 drones south of Bila Tserkva, moving into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  - 2 drones in northern Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west.
  - 2 drones north of Kyiv, heading west.
  - 2 drones moving from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast.
  - 4 drones near Pryluky.
  - 1 drone approaching Cherkasy.
  - 3 drones north of Konotop, heading west.
- Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:30 UTC): Reports two new drones in the Black Sea, heading toward Ovidiopol.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:09 UTC): Reports drones in Vinnytsia Oblast, heading towards Vinnytsia, and drones in central Kyiv Oblast, heading towards the capital.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:12 UTC): Issues a drone threat warning for Dnipro, with potential air defense activity.
- РБК-Україна (22:13 UTC): Reports a series of explosions in Kyiv.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:31 UTC): Provides an updated list of drone movements, including:
  - Drones in central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading southwest.
  - Drones in western and northern Kharkiv Oblast, heading south.
  - Drones in eastern Poltava Oblast, heading southeast.
  - Drones in northern Sumy Oblast, heading north.
  - Drones in central and eastern Chernihiv Oblast, heading southwest towards Kyiv Oblast.
  - Drones in eastern and western Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
  - Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, heading south.
  - Drones in northern Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
- КОВА (22:30): Air defense is operating in the region.
- Assessment: The DRONE ATTACK is EXTREMELY INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD, with MULTIPLE WAVES and TRAJECTORIES. KYIV is under REPEATED ATTACK, with CONFIRMED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY and REPORTED EXPLOSIONS. The DETAILED TRACKING INFORMATION provided by MULTIPLE SOURCES highlights the SCALE and COMPLEXITY of the ATTACK. NEW DRONES have been DETECTED in the BLACK SEA, indicating a CONTINUED THREAT. The BREADTH OF TARGETED REGIONS (Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts) demonstrates a COORDINATED EFFORT to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES.
REPORTED ATTACK ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (22:29 UTC): Reports a strike on the Line Production Dispatching Station (LPDS) "Unecha" in Russia, claiming complete destruction of the "Vysokoye" 110 kV substation, which provides power to the facility. Claims LPDS "Unecha" is crucial for oil transport via the "Druzhba" pipeline and to the port of Ust-Luga, significant for Russian oil exports. Provides coordinates: 52.764123, 32.936646.
- КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (22:29 UTC): Provides images of the alleged strike.
- Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT REPORT, as it TARGETS CRITICAL RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The CLAIM OF COMPLETE DESTRUCTION of the SUBSTATION, if CONFIRMED, would SEVERELY DISRUPT OIL FLOWS and have MAJOR ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES for RUSSIA. The PROVIDED COORDINATES and IMAGES add CREDIBILITY to the REPORT, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL. This aligns with UKRAINE'S STRATEGY of TARGETING RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE to WEAKEN RUSSIA'S WAR EFFORT.
UKRAINIAN MILITARY COMMENTARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (22:30 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian military commentator stating that stopping attacks on energy infrastructure benefits only Russia. The commentator claims Ukrainian energy infrastructure has been under attack for 3 years but remains functional due to protection measures. Claims Russia is now experiencing painful strikes on its oil refineries and transit infrastructure.
- Assessment: This is a Ukrainian counter-argument to the ceasefire.
UKRAINIAN CONFIRMATION OF AIR DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY):

РБК-Україна (22:30): Reports that air defense is working in the Kyiv area, confirming the drone reports.

RUSSIAN COMMENTARY (LOW PRIORITY):

Colonelcassad (22:26): Reports continued drone attacks, emphasizing that they won't stop.
Assessment: This is general information.

UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Colonelcassad (22:03 UTC): Reports a Russian drone strike against a Ukrainian satellite communication station.
UK PM STATEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- ТАСС (22:10 UTC): Reports that David Cameron is negotiating with the UK and EU for faster supplies of weapons to Ukraine before a potential ceasefire.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONTINUED, EXTREMELY INTENSE, AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. DETAILED TRACKING INFORMATION is AVAILABLE, indicating MULTIPLE WAVES and TRAJECTORIES. KYIV is under REPEATED ATTACK, with CONFIRMED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY and REPORTED EXPLOSIONS. NEW DRONES detected in the BLACK SEA. This is a NATIONWIDE THREAT.
- REPORTED UKRAINIAN STRIKE on CRITICAL RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (LPDS "Unecha" and "Vysokoye" substation). POTENTIAL MAJOR DISRUPTION to RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- The DRONE ATTACKS are CONTINUING, requiring CONSTANT VIGILANCE and ADJUSTMENT OF AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS.
- UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE is ACTIVE in the KYIV REGION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UKRAINIAN MILITARY COMMENTARY.
UK DRONE ATTACK VIDEO.
UK PM STATEMENT.
LOW PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN COMMENTARY.

Updated Recommendations

MAINTAIN AND INTENSIFY COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS ON AREAS WITH UPDATED DRONE TRAJECTORIES (Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts).
- PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTING DRONES targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS, especially KYIV.
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS, KINETIC INTERCEPTORS, and OTHER DEFENSES.
- CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIANS in AFFECTED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
- CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENTS and ADJUST DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS in REAL-TIME, using ALL AVAILABLE TRACKING DATA.
- COORDINATE AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS between DIFFERENT REGIONS and UNITS to OPTIMIZE COVERAGE and RESPONSE TIMES.
- ANALYZE DRONE TRAJECTORIES to IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS and ADJUST DEFENSES ACCORDINGLY.
- PREPARE FOR NEW DRONE THREATS from the BLACK SEA.
URGENTLY VERIFY AND ASSESS THE REPORTED STRIKE ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT) to CONFIRM the STRIKE on LPDS "UNECHA" and the "VYSOKOYE" SUBSTATION.
  - PRIORITIZE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE to ASSESS THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE.
  - ANALYZE the PROVIDED COORDINATES (52.764123, 32.936646) to CONFIRM THE LOCATION.
- IF CONFIRMED:
  - ASSESS THE IMPACT on RUSSIAN OIL FLOWS through the "DRUZHBA" PIPELINE and to UST-LUGA.
  - EVALUATE THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES for RUSSIA.
  - PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION.
  - CONSIDER THE IMPLICATIONS for NEGOTIATIONS and INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.
MONITOR UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN COMMENTARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ANALYSIS):
- ANALYZE UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN MILITARY COMMENTARY for INSIGHTS into STRATEGIES, INTENTIONS, and POTENTIAL ESCALATION.
- EVALUATE THE CLAIMS regarding ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS and DEFENSES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED, INTENSE, AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK is the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN, posing a NATIONWIDE THREAT to CIVILIANS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. The REPORTED STRIKE on RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE, if CONFIRMED, represents a MAJOR ESCALATION with SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INFORMATION, and EFFECTIVE COORDINATION are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting continues on the territory of the Russian Federation.: 0.7
A large-scale drone attack continues across multiple regions of Ukraine, targeting critical infrastructure.: 0.7
Russia continues large-scale drone attacks on Ukrainian territory.: 0.9
Ukraine is attacking Russian oil infrastructure.: 0.8
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.85
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.54
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.94
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.08
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.43
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.78
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.48
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.7
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.84
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.43
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.65
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.7
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.8
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.67
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.46
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.49
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.46
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.45
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.81
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.4
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.4
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.42
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.68
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.79
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.78
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.6
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.77
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.91
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.85
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.8
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.7
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.21
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.41
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.49
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.85
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.87
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.79
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.58
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.75
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.17.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.58
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.55
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.13
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.39
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.58
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.91
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.79
Russian forces are experiencing

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 22:32 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (22:01 UTC - 22:32 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs: