Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 22:01 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (21:32 UTC - 22:01 UTC)
REPORTED RUSSIAN CONDITIONS FOR WAR TERMINATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (21:34 UTC): Reports, citing Russian media and sources present at a closed meeting with Putin, that Russia is ready to end the war if the West and Ukraine recognize Crimea, the so-called DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts as Russian territories.
Assessment: This reiterates a LONG-STANDING RUSSIAN POSITION, but the TIMING is SIGNIFICANT. It may be a RESPONSE to RECENT DISCUSSIONS between TRUMP AND PUTIN, or an attempt to INFLUENCE FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS. It's UNLIKELY that UKRAINE OR THE WEST would ACCEPT THESE CONDITIONS. This is likely a NEGOTIATING TACTIC to SET A HIGH BAR for ANY FUTURE TALKS.
CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS, KYIV TARGETED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:42 UTC): Reports two drones approaching Boryspil/Kyiv and one drone near Boyarka/Kyiv.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:44 UTC, 21:47 UTC): Reports drones in Kyiv airspace and near Brovary, Kalynivka, and Makariv in Kyiv Oblast. Warns of possible air defense activity.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (21:57 UTC): Reports ongoing air defense activity in Kyiv airspace.
РБК-Україна (21:59 UTC): Reports that there are repeated sounds of explosions in Kyiv. Air defence has been confirmed.
Assessment:KYIV remains a PRIMARY TARGET of the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK. MULTIPLE DRONES are REPORTED in the AREA, and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are ACTIVE. This POSES A CONTINUED THREAT to CIVILIANS and INFRASTRUCTURE in the CAPITAL.
FURTHER REPORTS OF DRONE ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:44 UTC): Reports drones in eastern Vinnytsia Oblast, heading southwest towards Khmelnytskiy Oblast.
Assessment: The DRONE ATTACK is WIDESPREAD, with ACTIVITY in MULTIPLE REGIONS. The MOVEMENT OF DRONES towards KHMELNYTSKIY OBLAST is NOTEWORTHY.
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING RUSSIAN FORCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (21:42 UTC): Reports, with video, that the 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed multiple groups of Russian assault troops in the Novopavlivske direction.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN FORCESEFFECTIVELY USING DRONES to TARGET RUSSIAN PERSONNEL. The VIDEO PROVIDES EVIDENCE of SUCCESSFUL STRIKES, disrupting RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS. This suggests CONTINUED UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to INFLICT CASUALTIES and SLOW DOWN RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UK DESTRUCTION (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (21:46 UTC): Claims that "Great Britain is moving to confront, continuing to supply Ukraine with weapons and money. What are they achieving? The total destruction of Ukraine?"
Assessment:RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA.
DEEP STATE MAP UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
DeepState (21:52 UTC): Reports map updates, indicating Russian advances near Nevske and Pryvilne.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN ADVANCES in SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. This REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING and POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN RESPONSE to REINFORCE DEFENSES or CONDUCT COUNTERATTACKS.
ZELENSKY STATEMENT ON DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Zelenskiy / Official (21:57 UTC): States that many regions are literally hearing the sounds of war, with 40 Shahed drones in Ukrainian airspace. Says air defense has been activated, and that there have been strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION of WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS and TARGETING OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (21:38 UTC): Reports "Geranium" drone strikes in at least 6 regions of Ukraine. Claims the attacks are "typical" and suggests they might change after the Trump-Putin conversation.
Assessment: The report CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE ATTACKS, and the suggestion of a POTENTIAL CHANGE IN RUSSIAN TACTICS after the TRUMP-PUTIN CONVERSATION is INTERESTING, but SPECULATIVE.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONTINUED, EXTREMELY WIDESPREAD, AND INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS across MULTIPLE REGIONS, with REPEATED ATTACKS ON KYIV. DETAILED TRACKING INFORMATION is AVAILABLE. CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE is TARGETED. This remains a NATIONWIDE THREAT.
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE in SPECIFIC LOCATIONS, as indicated by the DEEP STATE MAP UPDATE.
HIGH PRIORITY:
REPORTED RUSSIAN CONDITIONS FOR WAR TERMINATION, reiterating LONG-STANDING DEMANDS that are UNLIKELY TO BE MET.
ZELENSKY STATEMENT ON DRONE ATTACKS.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of DESTROYING RUSSIAN FORCES.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE ATTACKS.
LOW PRIORITY
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UK DESTRUCTION.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE CONTINUED, INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE in KYIV, as it remains a PRIMARY TARGET.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENTS and ADJUST DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly.
ISSUE/MAINTAIN WARNINGS to CIVILIANS in ALL THREATENED AREAS.
PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly in AREAS TARGETED TONIGHT (Sumy, Donetsk, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy).
BASED ON THE DEEP STATE MAP UPDATE, URGENTLY REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS near NEVSKE and PRYVILNE.
CONDUCT COUNTERATTACKS if FEASIBLE to SLOW DOWN or HALT the RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
PRIORITIZE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING on RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS AND INTENTIONS in these AREAS.
ADDRESS THE REPORTED RUSSIAN CONDITIONS FOR WAR TERMINATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ANALYSIS):
ANALYZE THE REPORT CAREFULLY, considering the SOURCE and CONTEXT.
ASSESS RUSSIA'S MOTIVATION for REITERATING THESE DEMANDS at this TIME.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS, but MAINTAIN A FIRM STANCE against UNACCEPTABLE CONCESSIONS.
SUPPORT UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
CONTINUE TO SUPPORTUKRAINIAN EFFORTS to TARGET RUSSIAN PERSONNEL and EQUIPMENT with DRONES.
PROVIDE RESOURCES for DRONE PRODUCTION, TRAINING, and DEPLOYMENT.
PRIORITIZE TARGETING of RUSSIAN LOGISTICS, TRANSPORT, and HIGH-VALUE ASSETS.
MONITOR RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ANALYSIS):
ANALYZE RUSSIAN REPORTS of DRONE ATTACKS, comparing them to UKRAINIAN REPORTS and OTHER SOURCES.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of any CHANGES IN RUSSIAN TACTICS following the TRUMP-PUTIN CONVERSATION.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The INTENSE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, RUSSIAN ADVANCES, and REPORTED RUSSIAN CONDITIONS FOR WAR TERMINATION require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ACTION. PROTECTING CIVILIANS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE is PARAMOUNT. VERIFYING INFORMATION and RESPONDING TO THREATS remain CRITICAL PRIORITIES.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
About 40 civilians were evacuated from Sudzha, including bedridden patients: 0.7
371 people, including 14 children, have been evacuated from liberated settlements in the Kursk region since March 12.: 0.6
A phone call between Putin and Trump is expected next week.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Whitkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow lasted 3-4 hours and was "positive".: 0.7
Putin "accepts Trump's philosophy" regarding the end of the war.: 0.7
The distance between US and Russian positions on Ukraine has narrowed.: 0.55
Trump expects the war in Ukraine to end within weeks.: 0.1
Britain intends to deploy over 10,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing".: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Britain has secured support from "significantly more" countries than previously.: 0.65
Launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) towards Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.78
Russian forces advanced 1km deep and 500m wide near Razliv.: 0.75
Russian forces captured two strongholds and a dominant height near Shevchenko, advancing 500m deep and 2km wide.: 0.65
5 reinforcement groups, 3 rotation attempts, and 3 engineering groups were destroyed.: 0.5
MaxxPro armored vehicle, 5 other vehicles, and up to 25 Ukrainian personnel were destroyed.: 0.5
Russian forces are establishing positions near Basivka on the border of Sumy Oblast.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The President of Finland believes it is virtually impossible to reach a ceasefire with Russia.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian forces made advances near Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces captured aerial footage near Basivka.: 0.8
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail She
Response from 2025-03-18 12:01:16 (6h old):
Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 12:01 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (11:31 UTC - 12:01 UTC)
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES, TROOP DEPLOYMENT IN KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
DPR LIVE (11:31 UTC): Reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian units near Sudzha, with the most significant losses inflicted on the elite 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which was withdrawn for recovery. Claims Russia destroyed over 340 Ukrainian soldiers, two tanks, seven IFVs, five APCs, ten armored fighting vehicles, 13 vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one US-made counter-battery radar, and other equipment. Also claims Russian forces liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Claims two Ukrainian soldiers surrendered.
Assessment:POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS if CONFIRMED. However, these are CLAIMS FROM A RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be TREATED WITH CAUTION and REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The CLAIM OF DESTROYING THE 82ND AIR ASSAULT BRIGADE is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT if TRUE, as it would represent a MAJOR BLOW to UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES. The CLAIM OF CAPTURING SETTLEMENTS also suggests a SHIFT IN THE FRONTLINE in the KURSK REGION. The REPORT OF ONLY TWO UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS SURRENDERING seems LOW given the REPORTED SCALE OF FIGHTING, and MAY BE INACCURATE or PROPAGANDA.
UKRAINIAN REPORT OF INTENSE FIGHTING NEAR SEVERSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:31 UTC): Reports intense fighting continues near Seversk, with Russian forces making advances.
