Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 17, 2025, 16:01 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (15:31 UTC - 16:01 UTC)
US WITHDRAWAL FROM INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT INITIATIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (15:33 UTC): Citing Sky News, reports that the US has officially notified the European Union of its withdrawal from the International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIAL LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for ACCOUNTABILITY regarding the CONFLICT. The US WITHDRAWALWEAKENS the INTERNATIONAL EFFORT to PROSECUTE those RESPONSIBLE for the AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE. This could EMBOLDEN RUSSIA and UNDERMINE EFFORTS to ACHIEVE JUSTICE for WAR CRIMES. This action is likely LINKED TO THE NEW US ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES and POSSIBLE SHIFT in FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:35 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and TARGETING of UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in DONETSK OBLAST. The USE OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS suggests ATTEMPTS to INCREASE PRECISION and REDUCE RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT VULNERABILITY to UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
RUSSIAN DRONE SHOT DOWN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (15:35 UTC): Reports that Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian UAV over Belgorod Oblast around 16:50 Moscow time (13:50 UTC).
Assessment:THIS REPORT is CONTRADICTORY in terms of TIMING. The REPORTED TIME OF THE INCIDENT (13:50 UTC) PREDATES the TIME OF THE REPORT itself (15:35 UTC). THEREFORE, the REPORT'S ACCURACY is QUESTIONABLE. If ACCURATE, however, this would SUPPORT previous reports of UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY in BELGOROD OBLAST.
DRONE THREAT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SUMY OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:37 UTC): Reports the presence of enemy UAVs in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts, potentially reconnaissance drones. Warns of possible air defense activity.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the ONGOING DRONE THREAT across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The POTENTIAL for these drones to be RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS is SIGNIFICANT, suggesting RUSSIAN EFFORTS to GATHER INTELLIGENCE on UKRAINIAN POSITIONS and MOVEMENTS.
HUNGARY'S VETO ON UKRAINE FUNDING, CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN DEMILITARIZATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN-ALIGNED SOURCE):
Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (15:38 UTC): Claims Hungary will veto additional funding for Ukraine's war effort. Claims EU countries are broke and have no weapons, and that Russia has effectively demilitarized Western Europe.
Assessment: This report ORIGINATES from a SOURCE KNOWN FOR PRO-RUSSIAN BIAS. The CLAIM OF HUNGARY'S VETO requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The ASSERTION that RUSSIA HAS DEMILITARIZED WESTERN EUROPE is GROSSLY EXAGGERATED and LACKS CREDIBILITY. This report is LIKELY INTENDED as PROPAGANDA to UNDERMINE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE and PROMOTE A NARRATIVE OF RUSSIAN STRENGTH.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (15:38 UTC): Presents a video reportedly showing the same woman who made claims of rape by "Polish mercenaries" in Sudzha in a Russian propaganda video, now appearing in a Ukrainian video. In the Ukrainian video, she claims to have received assistance from Ukrainian soldiers.
Assessment: This SUGGESTS A COUNTER-INFORMATION OPERATION by UKRAINE to DISCREDIT RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. If AUTHENTIC, this UNDERMINES THE CREDIBILITY of the RUSSIAN CLAIMS and HIGHLIGHTS THE USE OF DISINFORMATION in the CONFLICT.
ALLEGED CEASEFIRE OF KURSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Басурин о главном (15:40): Provides a video, stating that there will be no more mercy for Ukrainian forces.
Assessment: This indicates a FURTHER RUSSIAN MILITARY BUILDUP in KURSK OBLAST.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF BUGGIES IN KURSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
STERNENKO (15:43 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces (156th Territorial Defense Battalion) destroyed three Russian buggies and burned another along with its drone operator in the Kursk region. Provides VIDEO EVIDENCE.
Assessment: This CLAIM is SUPPORTED by VIDEO EVIDENCE, which should be ANALYZED to CONFIRM the LOCATION and TIMESTAMPS. If CONFIRMED, this DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES in COUNTERING RUSSIAN FORCES using DRONES in the KURSK REGION.
GERMAN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (15:44 UTC): Lists an update of German military aid provided to Ukraine, including various types of ammunition, drones, mine-clearing equipment, and other supplies.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED GERMAN MILITARY SUPPORT for UKRAINE. The DIVERSITY OF EQUIPMENT provided suggests EFFORTS to BOLSTER UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES in MULTIPLE AREAS, including AIR DEFENSE, COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS, MINE CLEARANCE, and INFANTRY COMBAT.
DEPLOYMENT OF TROOPS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Игорь Артамонов (15:45): Shows a video, reporting the departure of over 30 people from Lipetsk to the special operation zone, claiming they are going "by the call of their hearts".
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION OF TROOPS in KURSK OBLAST.
TRUMP'S COMMENTS ON SPLITTING ASSETS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Fighterbomber (15:56 UTC): States that Trump wants to split assets between Russia and Ukraine, and mentions the potential split of ports.
IRAN TO BE HELD RESPONSIBLE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (15:48 UTC): Reports that Trump stated any attacks by the Houthis will be considered as attacks by Iran, and that Iran will be held responsible and face severe consequences.
Assessment:THIS ESCALATES TENSIONS in the MIDDLE EAST and INCREASES THE RISK OF A WIDER CONFLICT. The US POSITION, if IMPLEMENTED, could LEAD TO DIRECT CONFRONTATION with IRAN. This could HAVE IMPLICATIONS for GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES, REGIONAL STABILITY, and POTENTIALLY DISTRACT US ATTENTION AND RESOURCES from OTHER CONFLICTS, including UKRAINE.
RUSSIAN POST REPRESENTATIVE ON IAEA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Басурин о главном (15:50): Reports that Russia is not prepared to rotate IAEA observers in ZNPP through the Ukrainian side.
TAJIK FORCES ON MAY 9TH (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (15:51 UTC): Reports that Tajik military forces will participate in the May 9th parade in Moscow.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:55): Shows a video of an alleged TCC officer attacking a AFU soldier for helping a man escape mobilization.
Assessment:THIS SUGGESTS ongoing FORCED MOBILIZATION and INTERNAL CONFLICT within UKRAINE.
ZELENSKY INVITED TO G7 SUMMIT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (16:00 UTC): Reports that the new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney invited Zelensky to the G7 summit in June in Canada.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF STEPOVE (ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST). MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE. URGENT ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS needed.
POTENTIAL FOR NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS towards OREKHOV, NOVOANDRIIVKA, MALA TOKMACHKA, or even HULIAIPOLE.
REPORTED DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN SUBSTATION. VERIFICATION NEEDED.
HIGH PRIORITY:
US WITHDRAWAL FROM INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT INITIATIVE regarding UKRAINE. This SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENSINTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTABILITY EFFORTS.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, particularly in DONETSK OBLAST.
ONGOING DRONE THREAT in ZAPORIZHZHIA and SUMY OBLASTS, potentially involving RECONNAISSANCE DRONES.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
POTENTIAL COUNTER-INFORMATION OPERATION by UKRAINE to DISCREDIT RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA regarding ALLEGED ATROCITIES.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN BUGGIES in KURSK REGION. VIDEO EVIDENCE EXISTS.
CONTINUED GERMAN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE.
CLAIMED CASUALTIES FROM DRONE ATTACK in BELGOROD OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
REPORTED FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENT involving UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ATROCITIES IN SELIDOVO. URGENT INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT in VARIOUS LOCATIONS. VIDEO EVIDENCE EXISTS.
LOW PRIORITY:
HUNGARY'S POTENTIAL VETO ON UKRAINE FUNDING (requires verification).
PESKOV'S COMMENTS ON PUTIN-TRUMP CALL.
UKRAINIAN REBUTTAL OF CLAIMS OF EASING OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE US WITHDRAWAL FROM THE ICC INITIATIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ENGAGE WITH OTHER INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS to ASSESS THE IMPACT of the US WITHDRAWAL and EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE MECHANISMS for ENSURING ACCOUNTABILITY for WAR CRIMES in UKRAINE.
REINFORCE SUPPORT for the INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT and OTHER RELEVANT INTERNATIONAL BODIES.
DEVELOP A STRATEGY to COUNTER POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION and PROPAGANDA related to the US WITHDRAWAL.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
UTILIZE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS.
PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to CIVILIANS and MILITARY PERSONNEL.
PRIORITIZE THE INTERCEPTION OF DRONES, ESPECIALLY RECONNAISSANCE DRONES, in ZAPORIZHZHIA and SUMY OBLASTS.
DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to COUNTER THE CONTINUING DRONE THREAT.
INVESTIGATE THE POTENTIAL COUNTER-INFORMATION OPERATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE AUTHENTICITY of the UKRAINIAN VIDEO showing the SAME WOMAN who appeared in the RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA VIDEO.
ASSESS THE IMPACT of this COUNTER-INFORMATION OPERATION on PUBLIC PERCEPTION and CREDIBILITY OF RUSSIAN CLAIMS.
DEVELOP FURTHER STRATEGIES to COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to GATHER INFORMATION about the ALLEGED INCIDENT.
ATTEMPT TO LOCATE AND INTERVIEW WITNESSES, if POSSIBLE.
GATHER FORENSIC EVIDENCE, if ACCESS to the AREA is POSSIBLE.
COORDINATE WITH INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS and HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS to LAUNCH AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION.
PREPARE A REPORT for INTERNATIONAL BODIES (e.g., International Criminal Court) if EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE ALLEGATIONS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The SITUATION remains CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The US WITHDRAWAL from the ICC INITIATIVE is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIAL LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES and DRONE THREAT, coupled with POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES and CLAIMED ATROCITIES, require CONSTANT VIGILANCE and RAPID RESPONSE. EFFECTIVE INFORMATION OPERATIONS and COUNTER-DISINFORMATION STRATEGIES are also ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
Ukrainian public sentiment regarding the war is waning, potentially impacting their military's ability to sustain efforts.: 0.32
The Meduza report is part of an information warfare campaign designed to undermine Ukrainian morale.: 0.2
: 0.2
The Meduza report is accurate and reflects a genuine decline in the willingness of Ukrainians to fight.: 0.16
Declining public support will force Ukraine to alter its strategic decisions regarding resource allocation and mobilization.: 0.08
The report indicates long-term societal erosion in Ukraine due to the ongoing war.: 0.04
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999
