Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 17, 2025, 15:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (15:01 UTC - 15:31 UTC)

CONTINUED REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (ZAPORIZHZHIA DIRECTION) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
- Рыбарь (15:14 UTC): Claims Russian forces have liberated STEPOVE (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) and are engaged in fighting on the SHCHERBAKY-MALI SHCHERBAKY line. Claims Russian success was achieved through a combination of artillery preparation, surprise ("under cover of fog"), and radio deception. Claims Ukrainian forces were unaware of the Russian advance for some time. Suggests potential for further Russian advances towards heights west of OREKHOV, opening opportunities towards NOVOANDRIIVKA, MALA TOKMACHKA, or even HULIAIPOLE.
- Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. The claim of STEPOVE's capture has been OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED by the RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, adding SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT to the report. The details about the tactics used (fog, radio deception) are PLAUSIBLE and CONSISTENT with previous Russian operations. The STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS of this advance, if CONFIRMED, are SIGNIFICANT, potentially threatening UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS around OREKHOV. IMMEDIATE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING is ESSENTIAL to CONFIRM the EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA.
REPORTED DRONE ATTACK ON SUBSTATION IN BELGOROD OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (15:27 UTC): Reports a drone attack on a substation in KRASNAYA YARUGA, BELGOROD OBLAST, Russia. Claims a fire is observed.
- Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If CONFIRMED, this represents a CONTINUATION OF UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS on RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. TARGETING A SUBSTATION suggests an attempt to DISRUPT POWER SUPPLY, potentially impacting BOTH CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and MILITARY OPERATIONS.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT (VARIOUS LOCATIONS, MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:57 UTC): Claims Ukrainian border guards destroyed a Russian T-72 tank and an MT-LB armored vehicle in the KHARKIV DIRECTION. Provides VIDEO EVIDENCE.

Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (15:20 UTC): Provides VIDEO EVIDENCE of multiple strikes on enemy vehicles.
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:19 UTC): Claims a single Ukrainian FPV drone destroyed two Russian soldiers. Provides VIDEO EVIDENCE.
STERNENKO (15:08 UTC): Claims that an individual armed with a bomb was neutralized. * Assessment: These reports SUGGEST CONTINUED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES in COUNTERING RUSSIAN FORCES using DRONES. The VIDEO EVIDENCE needs to be ANALYZED for GEO-LOCATION and TIMESTAMPS to CONFIRM the CLAIMS.

REPORTED FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENT (UKRAINIAN FORCES) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (15:09 UTC): Claims Ukrainian air defense is responsible for the majority of downed Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters. Quotes Ukrainian MP BEZUGLAYA. Specifically mentions a pilot named MESYU who reportedly mastered the F-16 but was shot down by friendly fire.
- Assessment: This REQUIRES CAREFUL CONSIDERATION. If TRUE, it points to SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS with UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE COORDINATION and IDENTIFICATION OF FRIEND OR FOE (IFF) systems. However, this report ORIGINATES FROM A RUSSIAN SOURCE and could be DISINFORMATION or PROPAGANDA. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is NECESSARY.
CLAIMED CASUALTIES FROM DRONE ATTACK (BELGOROD OBLAST) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

ASTRA (15:09 UTC): Reports that three Russian servicemen from military unit 11744 were injured in a drone attack near KHOTMYZHSK, BELGOROD OBLAST, on March 13. Claims they suffered mine-blast injuries and were hospitalized.
Assessment: THIS REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If CONFIRMED, this FURTHER SUPPORTS reports of UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY inside RUSSIAN TERRITORY and ITS IMPACT ON RUSSIAN FORCES.

PESKOV ON PUTIN-TRUMP CALL (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

ТАСС (15:12 UTC): Reports that Peskov stated there are not yet even outlines for a future meeting between Putin and Trump.

UKRAINIAN COUNTER-CLAIMS ON SANCTIONS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

РБК-Україна (15:12 UTC): Reports that the Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) verified information with Vladyslav Vlasyuk, Ukrainian presidential envoy for sanctions. States that Ukraine is not supporting the easing of sanctions on Russia, dismissing as manipulative news that claimed otherwise.

CLAIMED RUSSIAN ATROCITIES IN SELIDOVO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
- ТАСС (15:17 UTC): Provides a video of a resident of SELIDOVO claiming Ukrainian soldiers repeatedly raped women.
- Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. If CONFIRMED, these constitute WAR CRIMES. The CLAIM needs IMMEDIATE ATTENTION from INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS and HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS. HOWEVER, the report ORIGINATES FROM A RUSSIAN SOURCE and could be DISINFORMATION or PROPAGANDA.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF STEPOVE (ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST). MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE. URGENT ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS needed.
- POTENTIAL FOR NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS towards OREKHOV, NOVOANDRIIVKA, MALA TOKMACHKA, or even HULIAIPOLE.
- REPORTED DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN SUBSTATION. VERIFICATION NEEDED.
POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN CALL NEXT WEEK. * REPORTED UK INTENTION TO DEPLOY 10,000+ TROOPS TO UKRAINE.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE NEAR BASIVKA.
- CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR HRYHORIVKA, OREKHOVO-VASYLIVKA, RAZLIV, AND SHEVCHENKO.
- CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, particularly in KHARKIV OBLAST.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT in VARIOUS LOCATIONS. VIDEO EVIDENCE EXISTS.
- REPORTED FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENT involving UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
- CLAIMED CASUALTIES FROM DRONE ATTACK in BELGOROD OBLAST. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ATROCITIES IN SELIDOVO. URGENT INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.
LOW PRIORITY:
- PESKOV'S COMMENTS ON PUTIN-TRUMP CALL.
- UKRAINIAN REBUTTAL OF CLAIMS OF EASING OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA.

Updated Recommendations

ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM the EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES on the SHCHERBAKY-MALI SHCHERBAKY line and surrounding areas.
- PRIORITIZE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to ASSESS RUSSIAN POSITIONS, STRENGTH, and INTENTIONS.
- REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS around OREKHOV and OTHER POTENTIAL TARGETS (Novoandriivka, Mala Tokmachka, Huliaipole).
- DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for COUNTEROFFENSIVES if RESOURCES ALLOW.
- ASSESS THE VULNERABILITY of UKRAINIAN SUPPLY LINES in the AREA.
VERIFY THE REPORTED DRONE ATTACK ON THE SUBSTATION IN BELGOROD OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES to CONFIRM the ATTACK and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
- DETERMINE THE IMPACT on POWER SUPPLY to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and MILITARY OPERATIONS.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- GATHER INFORMATION from RELIABLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES about the ALLEGED INCIDENT.
- REVIEW AIR DEFENSE PROCEDURES and IFF SYSTEMS to IDENTIFY POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES.
- IMPROVE TRAINING for AIR DEFENSE PERSONNEL on TARGET IDENTIFICATION.
VERIFY THE REPORTED CASUALTIES FROM THE DRONE ATTACK IN BELGOROD OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES to CONFIRM the REPORT.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED ATROCITIES IN SELIDOVO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to GATHER INFORMATION about the ALLEGED INCIDENT.
- ATTEMPT TO LOCATE AND INTERVIEW WITNESSES, if POSSIBLE.
- GATHER FORENSIC EVIDENCE, if ACCESS to the AREA is POSSIBLE.
- COORDINATE WITH INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS and HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS to LAUNCH AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION.
- PREPARE A REPORT for INTERNATIONAL BODIES (e.g., International Criminal Court) if EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE ALLEGATIONS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ANALYZE UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYED EQUIPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- ANALYZE THE PROVIDED VIDEO EVIDENCE for GEO-LOCATION, TIMESTAMPS, and OTHER VERIFIABLE DETAILS.
- ASSESS THE IMPACT of these REPORTED LOSSES on RUSSIAN OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF STEPOVE represents a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. VERIFYING REPORTS of DRONE ATTACKS, FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS, and POTENTIAL ATROCITIES is also ESSENTIAL. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, AND CLOSE COORDINATION are CRITICAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

Ukrainian public sentiment regarding the war is waning, potentially impacting their military's ability to sustain efforts.: 0.32
The Meduza report is part of an information warfare campaign designed to undermine Ukrainian morale.: 0.2
: 0.2
The Meduza report is accurate and reflects a genuine decline in the willingness of Ukrainians to fight.: 0.16
Declining public support will force Ukraine to alter its strategic decisions regarding resource allocation and mobilization.: 0.08
The report indicates long-term societal erosion in Ukraine due to the ongoing war.: 0.04
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
About 40 civilians were evacuated from Sudzha, including bedridden patients: 0.7
371 people, including 14 children, have been evacuated from liberated settlements in the Kursk region since March 12.: 0.6
A phone call between Putin and Trump is expected next week.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Whitkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow lasted 3-4 hours and was "positive".: 0.7
Putin "accepts Trump's philosophy" regarding the end of the war.: 0.7
The distance between US and Russian positions on Ukraine has narrowed.: 0.55
Trump expects the war in Ukraine to end within weeks.: 0.1
Britain intends to deploy over 10,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing".: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Britain has secured support from "significantly more" countries than previously.: 0.65
Launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) towards Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.78
Russian forces advanced 1km deep and 500m wide near Razliv.: 0.75
Russian forces captured two strongholds and a dominant height near Shevchenko, advancing 500m deep and 2km wide.: 0.65
5 reinforcement groups, 3 rotation attempts, and 3 engineering groups were destroyed.: 0.5
MaxxPro armored vehicle, 5 other vehicles, and up to 25 Ukrainian personnel were destroyed.: 0.5
Russian forces are establishing positions near Basivka on the border of Sumy Oblast.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The President of Finland believes it is virtually impossible to reach a ceasefire with Russia.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian forces made advances near Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces captured aerial footage near Basivka.: 0.8
An "Angara-1.2" light-class rocket launched military satellites into orbit.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999
US Negotiating teams will meet with Ukrainian and Russian counterparts.: 0.9
Ukrainian tactical and army aviation have increased activity near the front lines.: 0.68
Ukraine has come to terms with freezing the current front line.: 0.999

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 17, 2025, 15:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (15:01 UTC - 15:31 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations