Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 15, 2025, 14:31 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (12:08 UTC - 14:31 UTC)
CONTINUED GUIDED BOMB THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:08 UTC): Reports a guided aerial bomb (KAB) launch towards SUMY OBLAST.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:22 UTC, 12:54 UTC, 13:23 UTC, 13:38 UTC, 13:50 UTC): Reports KAB launches on DONETSK OBLAST, SUMY OBLAST, KHARKIV OBLAST.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:48 UTC): Reports the threat of using attack drones.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:43): Reports a enemy drone in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Assessment: These alerts REINFORCE PREVIOUS REPORTS and confirm ONGOING AND INTENSE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY. The REPEATED USE OF KABs across MULTIPLE REGIONS (Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv) indicates a CONCERTED EFFORT TO TARGET INFRASTRUCTURE AND/OR MILITARY POSITIONS. The IMMEDIATE THREAT LEVEL remains HIGH.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:09 UTC): The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) refutes claims of Ukrainian forces being encircled in the Kursk region. Includes a map showing likely areas of control.
Assessment: This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS PREVIOUS RUSSIAN CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN ENCIRCLEMENT in the KURSK REGION. The ISW assessment ADDS CREDIBILITY to UKRAINIAN DENIALS. This suggests RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION or EXAGGERATED CLAIMS of TERRITORIAL GAINS. FURTHER VERIFICATION is needed, but this SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD of a MAJOR UKRAINIAN ENCIRCLEMENT in KURSK.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:11 UTC): President Zelenskyy announces successful testing and combat deployment of the "Long Neptune" missile with a 1000 km range.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:15 UTC): Claims video shows the testing of "Long Neptune" missiles during the Tuapse Refinery attack.
STERNENKO (12:40, 12:43): Shows images of the fire and a potential missile.
* Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with SIGNIFICANT STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS. The CLAIMED 1000 KM RANGE puts A WIDE SWATH OF RUSSIAN TERRITORY AND ASSETS within STRIKE RANGE. SUCCESSFUL COMBAT DEPLOYMENT implies OPERATIONAL READINESS. This DRAMATICALLY INCREASES UKRAINE'S DETERRENT CAPABILITY and POTENTIALLY ALTERS THE STRATEGIC BALANCE. The claim that this missile was used in the Tuapse oil refinery fire is a MAJOR development.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR NEVSKE AND NOVOLYUBOVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Z комитет + карта СВО (12:39 UTC): Claims Russian forces are advancing near Nevske and Novolyubovka.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the LUHANSK REGION. VERIFICATION IS REQUIRED, but it suggests CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE in this AREA.
REPORTS ON ATTACKS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Офіс Генерального прокурора (12:36 UTC): Reports Russian shelling in the Kharkiv region, injuring 6 people. Artillery shelling in Ivashky, destroying a house. Five UAV strikes in Bohodukhiv, damaging an educational institution, workshop, warehouses, and residences. An FPV drone strike near Lyman injured a 65-year-old driver.
Assessment:CONFIRMSRUSSIAN ATTACKS targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and CAUSING CASUALTIES in KHARKIV OBLAST. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in the REGION.
OTHER:
ТАСС (12:10 UTC): A CSKA hockey player was temporarily suspended for violating anti-doping rules.
ТАСС (12:12): Serbian Interior Ministry surrounds government buildings.
Басурин о главном (12:13): Video of pro-Russia comments in Belgium.
РБК-Україна (12:14): Croatian prime minister hospitalized.
Colonelcassad (12:14): Latvian legionnaires day.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:16 UTC): Zelensky claims Russia is accumulating troops for an attack on Sumy Oblast.
ТАСС (12:18): Italy won't participate in Ukraine.
ТАСС (12:21): Hungary calling for peace.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (12:23): Reports Ukrainian initiative, Bring Kids Back UA, has saved 4 children from temporary occupied territories.
ТАСС (12:27): Putin wants peace, according to SpecialEurasia.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:33): Russian engineers are clearing mines in the Kursk region.
РБК-Україна (12:33): Reports Russian troops are complaining about Ukrainian drones near Kupyansk.
ТАСС (12:34 UTC): Claims European leaders are changing their rhetoric and calling for peace in Ukraine, because they've "fallen at Trump's feet."
Север.Реалии (12:34): Citizens in Cherepovets, Russia are demanding the governor be removed.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:39): Claims of Polish mercenaries being violent.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (13:22): Claims of a military man being convicted for violence.
Рыбарь (12:41): Claims the US is mediating in Syria.
Рыбарь (13:56): Claims Lithuania is changing constitution.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:35): Reports on FPV operations.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (13:04 UTC): Claims Ukrainian soldiers are disguising themselves as civilians to escape the "Kursk cauldron."
Два майора (12:37 UTC): Reports that the Ministry of Defense will revise the norms for supplying assault troops.
Два майора (13:02 UTC): Reports acquiring a Niva for a UAV team.
Два майора (13:23 UTC): Claims Ukrainian POWs thank Russian marines for saving them.
Два майора (13:24): Reports on Kursk region, near Basovka.
Два майора (13:41): Reports Yermak appointed to negotiations.
Два майора (13:46): Shows a song.
Два майора (13:50): Reports of Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia.
Два майора (13:51): Reports of potential collaboration.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:37): Claims captured a large number of Ukrainian troops.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:57): Claims a report from Sudzha.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:07 UTC): Claims a Trump envoy waited 8 hours to meet with Putin.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:26): Reports on the destruction of the Sudzhansky Museum.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:40): Reports that plans to send peacekeepers to Ukraine is entering an operative phase.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:59): Reports that Zelensky has put together a negotiation group.
Басурин о главном (13:02 UTC): Claims that racism is now based on citizenship in the US.
Басурин о главном (13:58): Reports on satellite companies.
Оперативний ЗСУ (12:49, 12:53, 13:21, 13:27, 13:33, 13:58): Reports from DTEK, UK and Italy.
РБК-Україна (12:55, 13:01, 13:03, 13:30, 13:35, 13:37, 13:57): Reports on Witkoff, and negotiations.
НгП раZVедка (12:49, 13:55): Posts images.
ТАСС (12:42): Reports on a visit by a Russian fleet.
ТАСС (12:49 UTC): Discusses Russian language testing for migrant children.
ТАСС (12:53, 12:54): Reports on peacekeepers and nuclear weapons.
ТАСС (13:11 UTC): Shows footage of the destruction in Sudzha.
ТАСС (13:20 UTC): Reports on a protest in Belgrade.
ТАСС (13:37): Reports Durov left France.
ТАСС (13:59): Reports 378 missing people in Kursk have been found.
Colonelcassad (12:44, 12:55, 13:16, 13:32, 13:44): Reports on a Georgian flag, Tuapse, Sudzha, negotiations, and captured soldiers.
WarGonzo (13:02): Shows a drone attack.
Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (13:11): Shows drone attack.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:58 UTC): Mentions a meeting about peacekeepers on Thursday.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:19): Reports on the destruction of air defense.
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (13:27): Reports on a meeting.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (13:07, 13:32): Reports on a diary and bombs.
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (13:15, 13:27): Posts images.
Fighterbomber (13:27 UTC): Mentions issues with comments.
Воин DV (13:31): Reports on fighting in various directions.
MoD Russia (13:28): Posts images of casualties.
Janus Putkonen (13:45): Reports on Azov's new brigade.
Новости Москвы (13:45): Reports on Durov.
Zelenskiy / Official (13:52): Reports on needing to increase the size of the armed forces.
КМВА (13:54): Reports on needing to increase the size of the armed forces.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED SUCCESSFUL TESTING AND DEPLOYMENT of the "LONG NEPTUNE" missile with a 1000 KM RANGE. MAJOR STRATEGIC IMPLICATION. POTENTIAL GAME-CHANGER. UKRAINIAN CLAIM that this missile was used in the TUAPSE OIL REFINERY ATTACKINCREASES LIKELIHOOD of UKRAINIAN RESPONSIBILITY.
CONTINUED AND INTENSE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY with REPEATED KAB STRIKES across MULTIPLE REGIONS. IMMEDIATE THREAT LEVEL REMAINS HIGH.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAOLESHENKA.
HIGH PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES across MULTIPLE FRONTS, including a DOWNED MiG-29. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED, but EVEN PARTIAL TRUTH indicates a WORSENING SITUATION for UKRAINE.
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY WARNS of RUSSIAN FORCE BUILDUP near SUMY OBLAST, indicating a POTENTIAL NEW OFFENSIVE.
* *RUSSIAN ADVANCES* reported near *NEVSKE* and *NOVOLYUBOVKA*.
* *CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACKS* on *CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE* in *KHARKIV OBLAST*.
* *ISW REFUTATION* of *RUSSIAN ENCIRCLEMENT CLAIMS* in *KURSK REGION*.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
All previously reported medium-priority issues.
LOW PRIORITY:
All previously reported low-priority issues, with the exception of the Tuapse Oil Refinery.
Updated Recommendations
LEVERAGE THE "LONG NEPTUNE" MISSILE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEVELOP TARGETING PLANS for HIGH-VALUE RUSSIAN ASSETS within RANGE OF THE MISSILE. PRIORITIZE TARGETS that would SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT RUSSIAN OPERATIONS (e.g., command and control nodes, logistics hubs, airfields).
ENSURE OPERATIONAL SECURITY surrounding the MISSILE'S DEPLOYMENT and USE.
COORDINATE with INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to IDENTIFY AND TRACK POTENTIAL TARGETS.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS regarding the TUAPSE OIL REFINERY, particularly ASSESSING THE DAMAGE to RUSSIAN FUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY CAPABILITIES.
COUNTER RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL THREATENED REGIONS (Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).
PRIORITIZE PROTECTION of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
ISSUE WARNINGS and SAFETY ADVISORIES to CIVILIANS.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS and LAUNCH SITES.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS AND RESPOND TO REPORTED ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
URGENTLY INVESTIGATE the RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS of HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES and EQUIPMENT LOSSES.
DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL WITHDRAWALS and ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW DEFENSIVE LINES, if NECESSARY.
PRIORITIZE THE PROTECTION OF REMAINING UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
URGENTLY ASSESS THE THREAT to SUMY OBLAST posed by the REPORTED RUSSIAN FORCE BUILDUP. REINFORCE DEFENSES and PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE.
* VERIFY reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES near NEVSKE and NOVOLYUBOVKA.
ADDRESS CIVILIAN IMPACT AND HUMANITARIAN NEEDS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
PROVIDE IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE to CIVILIANS AFFECTED by RUSSIAN ATTACKS in KHARKIV OBLAST and other IMPACTED AREAS.
ENSURE SAFE EVACUATION ROUTES and ACCESS TO SHELTER, FOOD, WATER, AND MEDICAL CARE.
COORDINATE with HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS to PROVIDE AID.
DOCUMENT all INCIDENTS of CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
MONITOR AND ANALYZE DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
CLOSELY MONITOR any POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS or CEASEFIRE PROPOSALS.
ASSESS THE IMPACT of TRUMP'S INVOLVEMENT and POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA TALKS.
COORDINATE with ALLIES to ENSURE A UNIFIED RESPONSE.
ANALYZE THE ISW REPORT refuting RUSSIAN ENCIRCLEMENT CLAIMS in KURSK REGION.
COMPARE the ISW ASSESSMENT with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES.
ADJUST STRATEGIC ASSESSMENTS and OPERATIONAL PLANS accordingly.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE "LONG NEPTUNE" MISSILE is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE STRATEGIC BALANCE. CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and REPORTED ADVANCES pose IMMEDIATE THREATS. VERIFYING CLAIMS, ADDRESSING CIVILIAN NEEDS, and MONITORING DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
