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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-15 12:08:59Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-15 11:38:57Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 15, 2025, 12:07 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:37 UTC - 12:07 UTC)

  1. CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES ON "AZOV" (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • TASS (11:39 UTC): Video claims to show Russian "Zapad" group drone units destroying "Azov" personnel and equipment (designated as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia).
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES. The SPECIFIC TARGETING OF "AZOV" is NOTEWORTHY, given its PROMINENCE in RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of the VIDEO, the TARGET, and the LOCATION is ESSENTIAL.
  2. REPORTED EUROPEAN PLAN FOR MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:40 UTC): Claims that European globalists, in confrontation with Washington and unwilling to compromise on the Ukrainian crisis, are planning to create their own fund for military support to Kyiv in 2025. Claims a preliminary amount of at least €20 billion, with a potential increase to €40 billion, depending on Ukraine's needs. Prioritizes air defense systems, large-caliber artillery ammunition, and various types of drones, plus a program for combat recovery of Ukrainian brigades. An upcoming EU Foreign Ministers summit is reportedly eagerly awaited by military-industrial corporations.
    • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL SPLIT between US and EUROPEAN APPROACHES to SUPPORTING UKRAINE. The CLAIMED FOCUS on AIR DEFENSE, ARTILLERY AMMUNITION, AND DRONES reflects KEY UKRAINIAN NEEDS. The REPORTED INVOLVEMENT of MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS highlights the ECONOMIC INCENTIVES involved. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of these CLAIMS is NECESSARY. The RUSSIAN SOURCE INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD of PROPAGANDA OR DISINFORMATION.
  3. AIR RAID ALERTS AND GUIDED BOMB THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:50 UTC): Reports a guided aerial bomb (KAB) launch towards KHARKIV OBLAST.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:55 UTC): Reports an enemy tactical aviation attack on the northeast.
    • Assessment: These alerts CONFIRM ONGOING RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT to the NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF UKRAINE, particularly KHARKIV OBLAST. The USE OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS indicates a POTENTIAL FOR PRECISION STRIKES on TARGETED INFRASTRUCTURE or MILITARY POSITIONS.
  4. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN OIL REFINERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • РБК-Україна (11:59 UTC): Reports a large fire at the TUAPSE OIL REFINERY for a second day, following a reported attack. Claims nearly 190 firefighters and over 50 vehicles are involved in extinguishing the fire.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a MAJOR FIRE at the TUAPSE OIL REFINERY. The SCALE OF THE FIREFIGHTING EFFORT indicates a SIGNIFICANT AND ONGOING INCIDENT. The UKRAINIAN SOURCE IMPLIES RESPONSIBILITY for the ATTACK, but LACKS EXPLICIT CONFIRMATION. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of the CAUSE OF THE FIRE and the EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE is CRITICAL. This development, coupled with President Zelenskyy's announcement about "Long Neptune", is CRITICAL.
  5. Other:

    • Mash на Донбассе (11:21 UTC): Reports a civilian was killed in Donetsk.
  • Alex Parker Returns (11:40 UTC): Shows images and video of a person claiming to be a civilian, seemingly to integrate into the Russian military, with the suggestion that it's a seamless integration.
  • ASTRA (11:45 UTC): Reports that families from Mariupol wrote to Putin regarding the housing crisis. * ASTRA (11:59 UTC): Posts a video from the families of Mariupol.
  • Север.Реалии (11:25 UTC): Residents of Cherepovets, Russia are calling for the removal of the governor.
  • Alex Parker Returns (11:17 UTC): Report on a car incident during a protest in Serbia.
  • Colonelcassad (11:44 UTC): Claims those who refuse to surrender will face their "robot warfare".
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:16 UTC): Posts a video about a Russian soldier's contraption.
  • ТАСС (11:16 UTC): Posts a video about building settlements.
    • Colonelcassad (11:15 UTC): Posts footage of explosions.
    • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:13 UTC): Report on a forest fire in Dagestan.
    • Басурин о главном (11:08 UTC): Posts a video from a Ukrainian TV channel discussing Ukrainian casualties.
    • Офіс Генерального прокурора (11:07 UTC): Reports and shows a drone attack in Chernihiv.
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:21 UTC): Reports enemy aircraft near Belarus and the Black Sea.
  • Alex Parker Returns (11:22 UTC): Claims that the situation in Ukraine "is going according to plan".

Updated Situation Summary

  • EXTREME PRIORITY:

    • REPORTED CONTINUED FIRE at the TUAPSE OIL REFINERY in RUSSIA, with UKRAINIAN SOURCES implying RESPONSIBILITY. MASSIVE FIREFIGHTING EFFORT UNDERWAY. URGENT VERIFICATION OF CAUSE AND DAMAGE REQUIRED. This, coupled with Zelenskyy's announcement regarding the LONG NEPTUNE MISSILE, has MAJOR STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS.
    • RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION, with the SITUATION DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
    • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAOLESHENKA.
    • RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES across MULTIPLE FRONTS, including a DOWNED MiG-29. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED, but EVEN PARTIAL TRUTH indicates a WORSENING SITUATION for UKRAINE.
  • UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY WARNS of RUSSIAN FORCE BUILDUP near SUMY OBLAST, indicating a POTENTIAL NEW OFFENSIVE. * UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY ANNOUNCES SUCCESSFUL TEST AND DEPLOYMENT of the "LONG NEPTUNE" missile with a 1000 KM RANGE. MAJOR STRATEGIC IMPLICATION.

  • HIGH PRIORITY:

    • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY with REPORTS OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES towards KHARKIV OBLAST and ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ATTACK IN THE NORTHEAST.
    • CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES targeting "Azov" personnel and equipment. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
    • REPORTED EUROPEAN PLAN to create a SIGNIFICANT MILITARY AID FUND for UKRAINE, potentially indicating a SHIFT IN STRATEGY and a SPLIT WITH US APPROACH. URGENT VERIFICATION AND ANALYSIS REQUIRED.
  • Claimed destruction of NATO-supplied equipment.

  • Claimed Ukrainian POW statements.

  • MEDIUM PRIORITY:

    • All previously reported medium-priority issues.
  • LOW PRIORITY:

  • All previously reported low-priority issues, with the exception of the Tuapse Oil Refinery.

Updated Recommendations

  1. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO THE TUAPSE REFINERY FIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
    • URGENTLY DETERMINE if the FIRE is the RESULT OF A UKRAINIAN ATTACK, SABOTAGE, or an ACCIDENT.
    • ASSESS THE DAMAGE to RUSSIAN FUEL PRODUCTION and SUPPLY CAPABILITIES.
    • MONITOR FOR ANY DISRUPTIONS to RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS.
  2. COUNTER RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

    • MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE, particularly KHARKIV OBLAST.
    • ISSUE PUBLIC WARNINGS and SAFETY ADVISORIES.
    • BE PREPARED TO RESPOND to FURTHER RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES.
  3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
    • URGENTLY INVESTIGATE the RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS of HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES and EQUIPMENT LOSSES.
    • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL WITHDRAWALS and ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW DEFENSIVE LINES, if NECESSARY.
    • PRIORITIZE THE PROTECTION OF REMAINING UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
  • URGENTLY ASSESS THE THREAT to SUMY OBLAST posed by the REPORTED RUSSIAN FORCE BUILDUP. REINFORCE DEFENSES and PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE.
  1. ANALYZE THE POTENTIAL EUROPEAN AID PLAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

    • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the REPORTED EUROPEAN PLAN for MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE.
    • ASSESS ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT on the CONFLICT and on US-EUROPEAN RELATIONS.
    • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
  2. LEVERAGE THE "LONG NEPTUNE" MISSILE (EXTREME PRIORITY, PLANNING AND EXECUTION):

    • DEVELOP TARGETING PLANS for HIGH-VALUE RUSSIAN ASSETS within RANGE OF THE MISSILE. PRIORITIZE TARGETS that would SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT RUSSIAN OPERATIONS (e.g., command and control nodes, logistics hubs, airfields).
    • ENSURE OPERATIONAL SECURITY surrounding the MISSILE'S DEPLOYMENT and USE.
  3. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains highly dynamic and critical. The potential for a MAJOR ESCALATION is HIGH, given the REPORTED UKRAINIAN ATTACK on the TUAPSE OIL REFINERY, the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, and the RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION. The REPORTED EUROPEAN PLAN for MILITARY AID could signal a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in the DYNAMICS OF THE CONFLICT.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

  • The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
  • Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
  • The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
  • The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
  • The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
  • The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
  • Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
  • Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
  • Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
  • Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
  • Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
  • Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
  • 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
  • Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
  • Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
  • Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
  • Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
  • Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
  • Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
  • Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
  • Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
  • There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
  • Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
  • Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
  • Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
  • Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
  • The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
  • Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
  • There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
  • Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
  • There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
  • There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
  • Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
  • There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
  • Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
  • Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
  • Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
  • There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
  • Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
  • A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
  • A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
  • A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
  • Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
  • Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
  • Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
  • There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
  • Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
  • There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
  • Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
  • There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
  • A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
  • Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
  • Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
  • Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
  • Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
  • Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
  • Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
  • The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
  • The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
  • The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
  • Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
  • A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
  • The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
  • US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
  • The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
  • The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
  • Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
  • The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
  • The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
  • The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
  • Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
  • Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
  • The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
  • Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
  • Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
  • Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
  • On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
  • Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
  • Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
  • Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
  • Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
  • The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
  • One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
  • Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
  • Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
  • Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
  • 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
  • Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
  • Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
  • Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
  • Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
  • Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
  • Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
  • Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
  • The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
  • Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
  • There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
  • A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
  • A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
  • An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
  • Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
  • All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
  • The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
  • Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
  • The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
  • 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
  • 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
  • Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
  • Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
  • Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
  • Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
  • Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
  • Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
  • Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
  • Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
  • Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
  • UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
  • Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
  • The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
  • Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
  • Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
  • Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
  • The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
  • Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
  • An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
  • Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
  • Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
  • A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
  • The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
  • There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
  • The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
  • The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
  • A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
  • Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
  • The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
  • There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
  • Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
  • Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
  • Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
  • Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
  • Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
  • Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
  • Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
  • Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
  • Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
  • Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
  • The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
  • Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
  • Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
  • Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
  • The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
  • Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
  • A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
  • Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
  • Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
  • Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
  • Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
  • Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
  • Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
  • Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
  • Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
  • The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
  • The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
  • An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
  • A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
  • A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
  • Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
  • Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
  • Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
  • Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
  • Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
  • Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
  • A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
  • Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
  • An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
  • Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
  • Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
  • Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
  • The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
  • The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
  • The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
  • The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
  • Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
  • Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
  • 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
  • Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
  • Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
  • Russian forces liberated Rubanshchina and Zaoleshenka: 1.0
  • Four drones were intercepted over the Moscow region.: 0.9
  • Conflicting reports of Ukrainian shelling during the evacuation in the Kursk region: 0.6
  • Russian forces advanced 1.5km near Kupyansk: 0.4
  • Four drones were destroyed by air defenses in Obninsk: 0.8
  • Russian forces liberated Rubanshchina and Zaoleshenka: 1.0
  • UKRAINIAN FORCES* are BLOCKED in the KURSK REGION: 0.78
  • Russian forces struck infrastructure supporting the military of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
  • A Ukrainian MiG-29 was shot down.: 0.999999999999
  • Russian forces used an FPV to strike a M777 howitzer.: 0.88
  • Hungary is calling for peace in Europe.: 0.7
  • Hungary does not want Ukraine to be accepted to the EU.: 0.89
  • Russian forces are making advances towards Zaoleshenka.: 0.8
  • Another US mercenary was killed: 0.7
  • Three people were injured in a car accident.: 0.7
  • The 50-year-old driver resisted arrest.: 0.8
  • The car crash in Belgrade may be related to the war.: 0.1
  • Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a group of three Russian soldiers using drones.: 0.9
  • Eleven years have passed since the occupation of Crimea.: 0.6
  • Crimea has become a transit zone instead of a tourist region.: 0.7
  • There is a lack of rule of law in Crimea.: 0.6
  • Over half a million Russians have relocated to Crimea.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian commanders have ordered their troops to kill everyone in the Kursk region.: 0.8
  • Russian forces (810th Marine Brigade) captured Ukrainian soldiers in Kurilovka near Sudzha.: 0.8
  • The captured Ukrainian soldiers were retreating.: 0.8
  • Many Ukrainian soldiers were wounded during the retreat.: 0.7
  • The Ukrainian forces were ordered to stay on their positions and watch.: 0.8
  • The Ukrainian forces needed a radio and 21 boxes of 20 bullets each.: 0.9999999999999
  • Russian forces used a complex strike to destroy two Ukrainian assault groups, vehicles, and communication assets.: 0.8
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian cargo vehicle.: 0.9
  • Russian forces destroyed three Ukrainian assault groups and vehicles equipped with EW systems.: 0.8
  • Russian drones destroyed an artillery piece and several Ukrainian vehicles.: 0.8
  • 275 civilians were evacuated from Kursk area.: 0.8
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