Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 10:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (09:43 UTC - 10:12 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF GONCHAROVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Военкор Котенок (09:44 UTC, 10:09 UTC): Claims Russian forces have FORCED UKRAINIAN FORCES OUT of GONCHAROVKA, WEST OF SUDZHA. Reports RUSSIAN ADVANCES in BASOVKA, with UKRAINIAN FORCES PULLING UP RESERVES and using ARTILLERY and DRONES.

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:09 UTC): Claims Russian forces STORMED Goncharovka, where RETREATING UKRAINIAN UNITS had TAKEN SHELTER.

   • Assessment: MULTIPLE SOURCES CONFIRM RUSSIAN CONTROL of GONCHAROVKA, WEST OF SUDZHA. This BUILDS UPON PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING in the AREA and FURTHER CONSOLIDATES RUSSIAN GAINS in the KURSK REGION. The CLAIMS of RUSSIAN FORCES FORCING OUT or STORMING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS are CONSISTENT. This DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SHIFTS THE FRONTLINE and INCREASES PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the AREA.

2. CONFIRMED ARRIVAL OF US NEGOTIATOR IN MOSCOW (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (09:34 UTC): Reports TRUMP'S SPECIAL ENVOY WHITKOFF'S PLANE HAS LANDED IN MOSCOW, citing FLIGHTRADAR DATA.
   • РБК-Україна (09:44 UTC): Reports that WITKOFF'S PLANE HAS LANDED IN MOSCOW, at VNUKOVO AIRPORT. Claims WITKOFF will present the KREMLIN with a CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL previously DISCUSSED between KYIV and WASHINGTON in JEDDAH.
     • Assessment: MULTIPLE SOURCES CONFIRM that a US NEGOTIATOR, REPORTEDLY STEVE WHITKOFF, HAS ARRIVED IN MOSCOW. RUSSIAN SOURCES confirm PLANNED CONTACTS. UKRAINIAN SOURCES claim the PURPOSE is to PRESENT A CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL already DISCUSSED with UKRAINE. This FURTHER SOLIDIFIES PREVIOUS REPORTS of POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS.

3. UKRAINIAN ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF STRIKE ON NOVOPETROVSKAYA COMPRESSOR STATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (10:03 UTC): Reports Ukrainian strike on NOVOPETROVSKAYA COMPRESSOR STATION, part of the URENGOY-NOVOPSKOV GAS PIPELINE, recently RECONSTRUCTED for SOUTH STREAM GAS DELIVERIES.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN RESPONSIBILITY for ANOTHER INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACK INSIDE RUSSIA. The TARGETING of a COMPRESSOR STATION on a MAJOR GAS PIPELINE is SIGNIFICANT, IMPLYING A DELIBERATE EFFORT to DISRUPT GAS SUPPLIES. This is the SECOND CONFIRMED ATTACK on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE in RECENT DAYS, following the DRUZHBA OIL PIPELINE ATTACK.

4. CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:54 UTC): Reports CONTINUED SHELLING of SUDZHA by UKRAINIAN FORCES, focusing on the WESTERN PART OF THE CITY. Claims FIGHTING is ONGOING in GONCHAROVKA.

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (10:09): Shows footage of damage.

   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of CONTINUED FIGHTING in the AREA, despite RUSSIAN CLAIMS of CONTROL. UKRAINIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLY SHELLING SUDZHA ITSELF. The REPORTED FIGHTING in GONCHAROVKA is now CONFIRMED.

5. OTHER REPORTS:

   • Alex Parker Returns (09:43 UTC): Shows a video purportedly of retreating Ukrainian forces in the Avdeevka style.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:45 UTC): Reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the east, with a threat of airstrikes in the front-line regions.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (10:01): Reports on a Ukrainian counter-attack.
   • Народная милиция ДНР (10:02): Reports on a Russian airstrike on Kleban Byk.

• Оперативний ЗСУ (10:02): Reports that Ukraine has signed a memorandum with Finland. Announces a new 200M Euro military aid package.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF GONCHAROVKA, WEST OF SUDZHA. This MARKS A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in the KURSK REGION, SHIFTING THE FRONTLINE and potentially OPENING NEW AXES OF ADVANCE for RUSSIAN FORCES.
  • UKRAINIAN ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF STRIKE on NOVOPETROVSKAYA COMPRESSOR STATION, ANOTHER KEY PIECE OF RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA, with UKRAINIAN FORCES SHELLING THE TOWN.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED ARRIVAL OF US NEGOTIATOR IN MOSCOW, with CONFIRMED PLANS FOR CONTACTS.
  • RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the EAST, with THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES.

• NEW 200M EURO MILITARY AID PACKAGE from FINLAND to UKRAINE.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
   • IMMEDIATELY ASSESS the VIABILITY of COUNTERATTACKS to RETRIEVE territory.
   • PRIORITIZE the SAFETY and EXTRACTION of UKRAINIAN TROOPS.
   • Consider all possible options, including NEGOTIATED WITHDRAWAL if DIRECT MILITARY ACTION is deemed TOO RISKY.
   • Intensify efforts to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

• VERIFY new reports of UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK.

2. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO THE US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the SPECIFIC AGENDA, PARTICIPANTS, and POTENTIAL OUTCOMES of the TALKS.
   • ASSESS the IMPLICATIONS of any AGREEMENTS REACHED for UKRAINIAN STRATEGY and OPERATIONS.
   • MAINTAIN CLOSE COMMUNICATION with ALLIED GOVERNMENTS to COORDINATE A RESPONSE.
   • PREPARE CONTINGENCY PLANS for VARIOUS SCENARIOS, including a POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE or CHANGES IN US SUPPORT.

3. ADDRESS THE UKRAINIAN STRIKES ON RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • ASSESS THE DAMAGE to the NOVOPETROVSKAYA COMPRESSOR STATION and its IMPACT on GAS SUPPLIES.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION for these ATTACKS.
   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSES to COUNTER POSSIBLE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES.

4. ADDRESS THE ONGOING FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the AREA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • INCREASE ARTILLERY FIRE on RUSSIAN POSITIONS to DISRUPT THEIR OPERATIONS.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY.

5. ADDRESS THE THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES IN EASTERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
   • PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY ASSETS.
   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL RADAR AND SURVEILLANCE ASSETS, if AVAILABLE.

6. INTEGRATE NEW FINNISH MILITARY AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • ASSESS THE SPECIFIC CAPABILITIES provided by the NEW AID PACKAGE.
   • DEVELOP PLANS for DEPLOYING and UTILIZING the NEW EQUIPMENT and RESOURCES.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF GONCHAROVKA represents a FURTHER ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION. The UKRAINIAN STRIKE on the NOVOPETROVSKAYA COMPRESSOR STATION ESCALATES THE CONFLICT by TARGETING CRITICAL RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The ARRIVAL OF A US NEGOTIATOR IN MOSCOW ADDS A NEW LAYER OF COMPLEXITY, with the POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS in the CONFLICT'S TRAJECTORY. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

[Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]

• Ukrainian forces targeted the Druzhba oil pipeline in a coordinated attack.: 0.56
• : 0.2
• The claim of a Ukrainian attack on the Druzhba pipeline is Russian propaganda intended to justify further actions.: 0.16
• There was an incident near the Druzhba pipeline, but its origin and nature are uncertain.: 0.08
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.96
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.88
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.999999999
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.82
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.78
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.68
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.88
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
• The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
• Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
• The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
• The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
• The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
• Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.82
• The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
• The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.58
• The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
• US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
• The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
• Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
• Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
• Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
• The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
• The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
• The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
• Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
• The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
• : 0.1
• Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
• Russian forces liberated Pravda, Kositsa, Kubatkin, Mikhailovka, Martynovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: 0.6
• Russian airborne units are clearing forests and strongholds in the direction of Dmitryukov Makhnovka.: 0.5
• Active assault operations near Melovoye, Ivashkovsky, Guyevo, and Makhnovka.: 0.5
• Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
• Russia may be using a gas pipeline near Sudzha.: 0.4
• Russian forces captured Ivashkovsky.: 0.88
• Russian naval forces are operating in the Black Sea: 0.5
• 2 Shahed drones were destroyed overnight.: 0.7
• Russia shot down 9 drones over Russian regions.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
• A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
• Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
• 40 people were injured in an attack on Velikie Kopany.: 0.7
• Russia destroyed a drone control center in Zaporizhzhia.: 0.78
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed: 0.7
• A bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Russian forces liberated the settlement of Gorky in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR).: 0.86
• drone operators of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group are targeting Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Polozhsky direction.: 0.84
• drone operators of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group are continuing to destroy Ukrainian personnel in the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.: 0.84
• fierce fighting in the Novopavlovsk direction. units of the "Vostok" group broke through Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of Volnoye Pole and are fighting closer to the center of the village.: 0.8
• Ukrainian positions south of the village have been taken.: 0.72
• Ukrainian forces are being pushed out of positions north and west of Burlatskoye.: 0.8
• fierce fighting in the Dneproenergiya-Razdolnoye area.: 0.85
• a Russian Su-34 destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border region.: 0.9
• the Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
• Ukrainian drones of the "Predators of Heights" unit of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade are operating in the Pokrovsk direction. 11 Russians and a car were hit.: 0.8
• Russian forces have entered the outskirts of Sudzha.: 0.999999999
• Ukrainian forces are surrounded from the east, north, and west, and that the only road for retreat is under fire control. chaos and panic among Ukrainian forces in Sudzha.: 0.8
• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims that Ukrainian forces, in cooperation with various intelligence and security agencies, struck a number of strategic targets within Russia overnight on March 11th.: 0.9
• Moscow Oil Refinery, the production capacity of the refinery, which reportedly supplies 40-50% of Moscow's diesel and gasoline needs, was hit.: 0.84
• "Stalnoy Kon" (Steel Horse) Linear Production Dispatch Station, explosions at this station, which manages the "Druzhba" oil pipeline and supplies oil to the "Ust-Luga" seaport terminal, was hit.: 0.8
• Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike in the Zaporizhia region are false.: 0.54
• Russian air defenses in Moscow are being prioritized, leaving other areas vulnerable.: 0.42
• Ukrainian drone strikes are a negotiating tactic.: 0.77
• Russian forces claim the capture of Dmitryukov.: 0.78
• Ukrainian forces are retreating from Sudzha.: 0.88
• Russian forces destroyed two "Bogdana" self-propelled artillery units and one "Kozak" armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.2
• US-Ukraine