Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 09:42 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (09:13 UTC - 09:42 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF SUDZHA AND SURROUNDING VILLAGES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • MoD Russia (09:07 UTC, 09:27 UTC, 09:38 UTC): Claims liberation of Sudzha, Melovoye, and Podol. Claims to have hit AFU formations near multiple locations in Kursk and Sumy regions, inflicting over 340 casualties. Claims total AFU losses in the Kursk direction exceeding 67,150 troops since the beginning of hostilities.

   • Colonelcassad (09:07 UTC, 09:13 UTC, 09:40 UTC): Claims Sudzha is officially liberated, with mopping-up operations complete.

   • Военкор Котенок (09:08 UTC, 09:40 UTC): Echoes MoD Russia claim, stating Sudzha is completely freed from Ukrainian forces. Reports Russian advances in Basovka, with Ukrainian forces pulling up reserves and using artillery and drones.

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (09:11 UTC, 09:32): Acknowledges the Russian MoD claim of regaining control over Sudzha. Shares a video of strikes, and reports that drone strikes were carried out.

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:11 UTC, 09:40 UTC): Claims Sudzha liberation, also stating Melovoye and Podol were liberated. Reports that the Russian MoD reports contacts between Russian and American negotiators.

   • Alex Parker Returns (09:11 UTC, 09:40 UTC): Claims Sudzha liberation as confirmed by the Russian MoD. Claims that Ukrainian high command hasn't confirmed that they have lost Sudzha.

   • TACC (09:13 UTC, 09:14 UTC, 09:21 UTC, 09:40 UTC): Reports that there are 4 people suspected of attempting a terrorist attack. Claims that in total, AFU losses exceeded 67,000. Claims that Susha has been liberated. Reports on the landing of a plane.

   • РБК-Україна (09:14 UTC): Reports that DeepState maps show part of the city as being in the grey zone.

   • ASTRA (09:17): Reports that the Russian MoD claims Sudzha has been liberated, and that Ukrainian soldiers have left the city.

   • WarGonzo (09:05 UTC) Shows a video of a Russian rapid advance on Sudzha.

   • Assessment: MULTIPLE SOURCES, INCLUDING THE RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AND SEVERAL PRO-RUSSIAN MILBLOGGERS, CONFIRM RUSSIAN CONTROL OVER SUDZHA, MELOVOYE, AND PODOL. The CLAIMS of "LIBERATION" and "MOPPING-UP OPERATIONS COMPLETE" are CONSISTENT. The REPORTED SCALE OF AFU LOSSES is LIKELY EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES, but the OVERALL TREND of RUSSIAN ADVANCE is CLEARLY ESTABLISHED. DEEPSTATE MAPS, cited by RBC-UKRAINE, show PART OF SUDZHA in the "GREY ZONE", indicating SOME CONTESTATION may STILL EXIST, or that the MAPS ARE NOT FULLY UP-TO-DATE. The CLAIM of OVER 67,000 AFU CASUALTIES in the KURSK DIRECTION since the BEGINNING OF HOSTILITIES is ALMOST CERTAINLY INFLATED. UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND HAS NOT OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED THE LOSS OF SUDZHA, consistent with their usual OPERATIONAL SECURITY PROTOCOLS. This MARKS A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in the KURSK REGION, SHIFTING THE FRONTLINE and potentially OPENING NEW AXES OF ADVANCE for RUSSIAN FORCES.

2. CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Kotsnews (08:58 UTC): Reports pockets of resistance remain on the western outskirts of Sudzha, with ongoing artillery fire. Claims fighting is ongoing in Goncharovka.

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:00 UTC, 09:11 UTC): Echoes Kotsnews reports, claiming continued shelling by Ukrainian forces and ongoing fighting in Goncharovka.

   • MoD Russia (09:08 UTC) Video: Claims that FPV drone operators destroyed Ukrainian vehicles.

   • Старше Эдды (09:11) Reposts Poddubny's video.

   • Assessment: While Sudzha itself is REPORTEDLY UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL, FIGHTING CONTINUES in the SURROUNDING AREAS, particularly around GONCHAROVKA. RUSSIAN SOURCES claim UKRAINIAN FORCES are SHELLING SUDZHA itself. The REPORTED USE OF FPV DRONES by RUSSIAN FORCES TARGETING RETREATING UKRAINIAN VEHICLES is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS.

3. US NEGOTIATOR REPORTEDLY ARRIVED IN MOSCOW (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (08:44 UTC, 09:07 UTC, 09:11 UTC, 09:34 UTC): Reports Trump's special envoy Whitkoff's plane has crossed the Russian border, citing Flightradar data. Claims that US/Ukraine negotiations are going on in Jeddah and that the information is being processed. Reports that the plane has landed in Moscow.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:56): Claims Trump envoy Witkoff's plane entered Russian airspace.
   • Alex Parker Returns (09:03 UTC, 09:39 UTC): Claims U.S. special envoy Whitkoff is flying to Moscow to persuade Russia to accept a ceasefire.
   • Дневник Десантника (09:03 UTC, 09:40 UTC): Reports that American negotiators are heading to Russia. Announces that Peskov has stated that Russian negotiators are going to Russia.
   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:10 UTC): Claims American negotiators are traveling to Russia, referencing planned contacts.
   • Alex Parker Returns (09:09 UTC): Claims Witkoff is a billionaire with ties to Russia and Trump.
   • Colonelcassad (09:40 UTC): Reports that a US negotiator is arriving.
     • Assessment: MULTIPLE SOURCES CONFIRM that a US NEGOTIATOR, REPORTEDLY STEVE WHITKOFF, HAS ARRIVED IN MOSCOW. RUSSIAN SOURCES confirm PLANNED CONTACTS. This suggests POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS regarding the CONFLICT are UNDERWAY. The SPECIFIC PURPOSE AND AGENDA of the TALKS remain UNCLEAR, but CEASEFIRE DISCUSSIONS are REPORTEDLY A KEY TOPIC.

4. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • AV БогомаZ (08:44 UTC): Reports two aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage.
   • Новости Москвы (08:44 UTC, 09:00 UTC): Reports Moscow may get rain, strong winds, and temperature ups. Claims a fire broke out in a Thermal Power Station.

• Оперативний ЗСУ (08:48): Claims a fire broke out in a Thermal Power Station. * РБК-Україна (08:53, 09:27): Same claim as Оперативний ЗСУ. Reports on a drone attack on a drone manufacturer. * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:26): Reports on a fire in Moscow.

  • Assessment: The REPORT of TWO DRONES DESTROYED over BRYANSK OBLAST CONTINUES THE PATTERN of UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS inside RUSSIA. The claims of a FIRE in a THERMAL POWER STATION are CONFIRMED. UKRAINIAN SOURCES claim RESPONSIBILITY for DRONE ATTACKS targeting a DRONE MANUFACTURING FACILITY in the KALUGA REGION.

5. OTHER REPORTS:

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:02 UTC, 09:26 UTC): Reports a high-speed target over Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. Claims to have destroyed an enemy drone.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (09:09 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian counter-attack.
   • Старше Эдды (09:10 UTC): Reports on a new terrorist group operating in Syria.
   • Север.Реалии (08:54 UTC, 09:13 UTC): Reports that Russia wants to sentence people who help international organizations. Claims that 3 people died from attacks.

• Два майора (08:56 UTC, 09:05 UTC, 09:13 UTC): Reports that the National Assembly of France has adopted a resolution about confiscating frozen assets of the Russian Federation. Reports on Ukrainian forces making mobile units to train operators. Announces confirmation that Russians are working with Americans in order to exchange information about Ukraine.
  • Fighterbomber (09:01 UTC): Posts on flight paths.
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (09:02 UTC, 09:07 UTC) Reports on providing aid to soldiers, and on targeting enemy locations.
  • Рыбарь (09:02 UTC): Reports on Rybar.
  • Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (09:04): Reports on Lukashenko.
  • Басурин о главном (09:03 UTC): Reports on ceasefire talks.

• *Alex Parker Returns* (09:40): Claims that there are no updates from the General Staff.
  

• НгП раZVедка (09:12 UTC): Reports on Russian and Ukrainian negotiations.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF SUDZHA, MELOVOYE, AND PODOL, with MULTIPLE SOURCES reporting the LIBERATION of the TOWN and SURROUNDING VILLAGES. FIGHTING CONTINUES in the SURROUNDING AREAS, particularly GONCHAROVKA. This REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in the FRONTLINE in the KURSK REGION.
  • US NEGOTIATOR ARRIVING IN MOSCOW, with CONFIRMED PLANS FOR CONTACTS. CEASEFIRE DISCUSSIONS are REPORTEDLY A KEY TOPIC.
  • UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS continue to target RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, including a reported DRONE MANUFACTURING FACILITY.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • *The fire in a Moscow power plant* is *CONFIRMED*.
    

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTS of A HIGH-SPEED TARGET over SUMY OBLAST heading towards POLTAVA OBLAST.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
   • IMMEDIATELY ASSESS the VIABILITY of BREAKING any POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • PRIORITIZE the SAFETY and EXTRACTION of UKRAINIAN TROOPS.
   • Consider all possible options, including NEGOTIATED WITHDRAWAL if DIRECT MILITARY ACTION is deemed TOO RISKY.
   • Intensify efforts to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

• VERIFY the CLAIMS regarding the "GREY ZONE" status of parts of SUDZHA.

2. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO THE US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the SPECIFIC AGENDA, PARTICIPANTS, and POTENTIAL OUTCOMES of the TALKS.
   • ASSESS the IMPLICATIONS of any AGREEMENTS REACHED for UKRAINIAN STRATEGY and OPERATIONS.
   • MAINTAIN CLOSE COMMUNICATION with ALLIED GOVERNMENTS to COORDINATE A RESPONSE.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL FORCES to the AFFECTED AREAS to STABILIZE THE FRONT and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • INCREASE ARTILLERY AND AERIAL FIRE on ADVANCING RUSSIAN UNITS and SUPPLY LINES.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY.

• INVESTIGATE reports of UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK.

4. ADDRESS THE ONGOING DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.
   • PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR for FURTHER DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • INVESTIGATE the ORIGIN AND CAPABILITIES of the DRONES.
   • IMPROVE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS to COUNTER FUTURE ATTACKS.
   • TARGET RUSSIAN DRONE MANUFACTURING FACILITIES inside RUSSIA.

5. ADDRESS REPORTS OF A TERRORIST GROUP IN SYRIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Monitor the reports.

• Verify the validity of the claims.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF SUDZHA AND SURROUNDING VILLAGES is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, potentially ALTERING THE BALANCE OF POWER in the KURSK REGION. The ARRIVAL OF A US NEGOTIATOR IN MOSCOW adds a NEW LAYER OF COMPLEXITY, with the POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS in the CONFLICT'S TRAJECTORY. The CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS inside RUSSIA, including the REPORTED TARGETING OF A DRONE MANUFACTURING FACILITY, demonstrates a WILLINGNESS and CAPABILITY to STRIKE DEEPER into RUSSIAN TERRITORY. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• Ukrainian forces targeted the Druzhba oil pipeline in a coordinated attack.: 0.56
• : 0.2
• The claim of a Ukrainian attack on the Druzhba pipeline is Russian propaganda intended to justify further actions.: 0.16
• There was an incident near the Druzhba pipeline, but its origin and nature are uncertain.: 0.08
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.85
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.88
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.999999999
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.82
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.78
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.68
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.88
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
• The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
• Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
• The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
• The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
• The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
• Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.82
• The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
• The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.58
• The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
• US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
• The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
• Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
• Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
• Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
• The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
• The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
• The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
• Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
• The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
• : 0.1
• Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
• Russian forces liberated Pravda, Kositsa, Kubatkin, Mikhailovka, Martynovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: 0.6
• Russian airborne units are clearing forests and strongholds in the direction of Dmitryukov Makhnovka.: 0.5
• Active assault operations near Melovoye, Ivashkovsky, Guyevo, and Makhnovka.: 0.5
• Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
• Russia may be using a gas pipeline near Sudzha.: 0.4
• Russian forces captured Ivashkovsky.: 0.88
• Russian naval forces are operating in the Black Sea: 0.5
• 2 Shahed drones were destroyed overnight.: 0.7
• Russia shot down 9 drones over Russian regions.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6