Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 12, 2025, 19:42 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (19:12 UTC - 19:42 UTC)

1. CONFLICTING REPORTS ON KURSK/SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES, HIGHLY CONTESTED):

   • Russian Sources (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

     • TASS, «Зона СВО», Colonelcassad, Poddybny |Z|O|V| edition, WarGonzo, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Rybar, Басурин о главном: Continue to report MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST and INTO SUMY OBLAST. Claims include:
       • LIBERATION OF 86% OF KURSK OBLAST previously occupied by UKRAINIAN FORCES.
       • CAPTURE OF OVER 400 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS.
       • ADVANCES INTO SUMY OBLAST in "certain areas."
       • UKRAINIAN FORCES SURROUNDED north of MALAYA LOKNYA.
       • LIBERATION OF 24 SETTLEMENTS and 259 SQ KM of territory in KURSK OBLAST in the LAST FIVE DAYS.
     • TASS: Reports PUTIN'S ORDER for the COMPLETE LIBERATION of KURSK OBLAST "in the shortest possible time."
     • TASS, Poddybny |Z|O|V| edition: Reports PUTIN'S CONSIDERATION of a SECURITY ZONE along the RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN BORDER.
     • TASS, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, «Зона СВО», Два майора, НгП раZVедка: Report PUTIN'S DECLARATION that UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS captured in KURSK OBLAST will be treated as TERRORISTS and that FOREIGN MERCENARIES do not fall under the GENEVA CONVENTION.
     • Colonelcassad: Claims a plan for an operation in the northern areas of the Sumy Region.

   • Ukrainian Sources (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

     • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ: CONTRADICT RUSSIAN CLAIMS, stating that ACTIVE FIGHTING CONTINUES in the SUBURBS OF SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS.
       • UKRAINIAN FORCES are reportedly CONDUCTING MANEUVERS to MORE ADVANTAGEOUS POSITIONS when necessary.
       • UKRAINIAN FORCES are REPELLING RUSSIAN ASSAULTS. (Reportedly EIGHT on the KURSK DIRECTION as of 18:00 UTC).
       • RUSSIAN FORCES are accused of AIMING TO DISPLACE UKRAINIAN TROOPS from KURSK OBLAST and MOVE THE FIGHTING into SUMY and KHARKIV OBLASTS.
     • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Claims that RUSSIAN LOSSES since the beginning of the "Kursk Operation" (August 6, 2024) are:
       • OVER 54,900 PERSONNEL (over 22,200 killed, 31,800 wounded, 942 captured).
       • APPROXIMATELY 2,100 UNITS OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND WEAPONS DESTROYED OR DAMAGED, including 90 TANKS, 654 ARMORED FIGHTING VEHICLES, FIVE MLRS, TWO AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, ONE AIRCRAFT, TWO HELICOPTERS, OVER 1100 VEHICLES, 28 UNITS OF SPECIAL EQUIPMENT, and ALMOST 1500 DRONES.
     • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна: Acknowledge RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES on SUDZHA, claiming the CITY IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DESTROYED.

   • Assessment: This is the MOST CRITICAL AND CONTESTED DEVELOPMENT. RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES provide COMPLETELY OPPOSITE NARRATIVES. RUSSIAN SOURCES paint a picture of a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY and ADVANCE, while UKRAINIAN SOURCES insist that FIGHTING CONTINUES and that UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE HOLDING THE LINE (while conducting tactical withdrawals when necessary). The UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF MASSIVE RUSSIAN LOSSES are LIKELY INFLATED, but RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF COMPLETE CONTROL are ALSO LIKELY EXAGGERATED. The TRUTH LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, with RUSSIAN FORCES MAKING GAINS, but UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE CONTINUING. URGENT VERIFICATION FROM INDEPENDENT SOURCES is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL. The REPORTED RUSSIAN INTENT to MOVE THE FIGHTING INTO SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS is a MAJOR CONCERN and INDICATES A POTENTIAL WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT.

2. DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:25, 19:27, 19:29 UTC): Reports:
     • Drone activity in the WEST and NORTHWEST of KHARKIV OBLAST, heading SOUTHWEST.
     • Drone activity in the EAST of POLTAVA OBLAST, heading WEST.
     • Drone activity in the WEST of SUMY OBLAST, heading WEST/SOUTHWEST.
     • Threat to the City of POLTAVA.
     • Threat to CHERNIHIV OBLAST.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:25, 19:41): Reports the launch of guided aerial bombs.
     • launches on the border of KHARKIV and DONETSK Oblasts.
     • Launches on SUMY OBLAST.
   • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The reports of drones being launched in POLTAVA are a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. The guided aerial bomb launches represent a MAJOR ESCALATION.

3. POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEISKOYE) DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок: Reports FIERCE COUNTER-BATTLES with the use of ARMORED VEHICLES on both sides. * UKRAINIAN FORCES reportedly PUSHED BACK RUSSIAN UNITS in the SOUTHERN PART OF UDACHNOYE. * NO MAJOR CHANGES in KOTLINO and ZVEREVO, but FIERCE FIGHTING continues. * UKRAINIAN FORCES are reportedly PRESSING HARD in PESCHANOYE, with INTENSE DRONE ACTIVITY. * UKRAINIAN FORCES were reportedly DRIVEN BACK to the NORTHERN OUTSKIRTS of SHEVCHENKO. COUNTER-BATTLES and FLUCTUATING CONTROL in the NORTHEASTERN PART.

   • Сливочный каприз: Reports about the destruction of a Ukrainian vehicle.

     • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with BOTH SIDES MAKING LIMITED GAINS AND LOSSES. The SITUATION IS FLUID AND HIGHLY CONTESTED. The REPORT OF INTENSE UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY in PESCHANOYE is NOTEWORTHY.

4. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

• Alex Parker Returns (19:16): Claims a new double of Putin.
  • РБК-Україна (19:17): Reports that SYRSKYI stated that the GOAL OF RUSSIA is to DISPLACE UKRAINIAN TROOPS from KURSK OBLAST and MOVE THE FIGHTING into SUMY and KHARKIV OBLASTS.
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Reports fundraising for drones.
• НгП раZVедка: Reports that Russian Forces have advanced to the territory of Maly Shcherbaky, west of Orikhiv.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:
  • HIGHLY CONTESTED SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY REGION, with COMPLETELY OPPOSITE NARRATIVES from RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED. The POTENTIAL FOR A WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT into SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS is a MAJOR CONCERN.
  • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, with reports of drones being launched, threatening POLTAVA, with activity in the West, North-West, and East.
    • GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS LAUNCHED on the border of KHARKIV and DONETSK Oblasts and SUMY OBLAST.
  • PUTIN'S VISIT TO KURSK COMMAND POST AND SUBSEQUENT DECLARATIONS signal a MAJOR ESCALATION in RUSSIAN INTENT and a LIKELY INTENSIFICATION OF MILITARY OPERATIONS. The ORDER TO COMPLETELY LIBERATE KURSK OBLAST, the CONSIDERATION OF A SECURITY ZONE, and the DESIGNATION OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS AS TERRORISTS are all CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, including the LIBERATION OF 86% OF PREVIOUSLY OCCUPIED TERRITORY, the CAPTURE OF OVER 400 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS, and ADVANCES INTO SUMY OBLAST. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• HIGH PRIORITY:
  • CONTINUED, INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with FLUCTUATING CONTROL and LIMITED GAINS AND LOSSES for BOTH SIDES.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROYED a RUSSIAN S-400 LAUNCHER. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, with DRONES MOVING TOWARDS DNIPRO. * ALL PREVIOUS HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
• MEDIUM PRIORITY:
  • ALL PREVIOUS ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE ESCALATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in KURSK and SUMY OBLASTS.
     • PRIORITIZE CONFIRMING the EXTENT OF RUSSIAN CONTROL and UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS.
     • ASSESS THE STATUS of UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA, including CASUALTIES, EQUIPMENT LOSSES, and REMAINING FIGHTING CAPABILITY.
   • URGENTLY REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in SUMY OBLAST to PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POSSIBLE RUSSIAN INCURSION into SUMY OBLAST, including DEFENSIVE POSITIONS, EVACUATION PLANS, and COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPTIONS.
   • INCREASE COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE to TARGET RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND ROCKET POSITIONS supporting the OFFENSIVE.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from BORDER AREAS in SUMY OBLAST.

2. ADDRESS THE THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in KHARKIV, POLTAVA, and SUMY OBLASTS.
   • **PRIORITIZE the INTERCEPTION OF DRONES and the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.

3. ADDRESS THE THREAT OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Deploy all available countermeasures.
   • Implement evasive procedures.
   • Alert personnel.
   • Maintain communications.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.

4. VERIFY REPORT OF S-400 DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the REPORTED DESTRUCTION of the RUSSIAN S-400 LAUNCHER.

5. ADDRESS PUTIN'S DECLARATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MONITORING):

   • MONITOR RUSSIAN ACTIONS to ASSESS THE IMPLEMENTATION of PUTIN'S ORDERS, including the TREATMENT OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL LEGAL CHALLENGES regarding the TREATMENT OF PRISONERS OF WAR.
   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN PLANS for a POTENTIAL SECURITY ZONE.

6. ADDRESS THE FIGHTING IN POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Reinforce units in Udachnoye.
   • Implement counter-drone measures in Peschanoe.
   • Maintain defense in Kotlino and Zverevo.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFLICTING REPORTS from the KURSK/SUMY REGION DEMAND IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The POTENTIAL FOR A WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT is HIGH. The CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE and the LAUNCH OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS pose a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is ESSENTIAL to ADDRESS THESE THREATS.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The U.S. and Russia will hold meetings regarding Ukraine on March 11 or 12.: 0.7
• : 0.08
• Trump's statement is an attempt to influence negotiations.: 0.04
• The meetings are already planned.: 0.03
• The information is false or misleading.: 0.01
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.99999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
• The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
• Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
• Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72
• Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes all fronts, not just air and sea.: 0.98
• Russian media and officials express high skepticism towards the ceasefire proposal, viewing it as a trap for Ukraine to rearm and regroup.: 0.93
• There are reports of planned meetings between US and Russian officials on March 11 or 12 to discuss the ceasefire proposal.: 0.99999999999999
• A ballistic missile threat was reported and then lifted for Odesa.: 0.75
• Continued drone threats are present across multiple Ukrainian regions.: 0.99999999999999
• France is replacing the US in providing satellite intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.6
• There are claims of Russian forces in Sudzha.: 0.99999
• Russian forces are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.85
• Russian forces continue to advance in the counterterrorism operation zone, liberating Makhnovka, Kazachya Loknya, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye.: 0.78
• Trump believes Putin's agreement to a ceasefire would represent 75% of the way to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.: 0.65
• Talks between US and Russian contact groups will occur tomorrow.: 0.8
• Russia does not rule out contacts with US representatives in the next few days.: 0.85
• Russian troops are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.75
• Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part of Shevchenko as a result of Russian counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for the northern part.: 0.65
• Assault groups have reached the outskirts of the city from Mirny, Zamostye, and Kazachya Loknya: 0.85
• Roads in the city are under the control of Russian troops.: 0.9
• The 11th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed at least five Ukrainian vehicles that were attempting to reinforce Sudzha: 0.86
• Russian troops are occupying the Central Market: 0.999
• Ukrainian troops are attempting to escape via side roads and through fields: 0.75
• Trump intends to speak with Putin: 0.99
• Von der Leyen stated that the EU will fully play its role in upcoming negotiations.: 0.8
• A video call between Russia and Trump is possible.: 0.65
• Putin's conditions to ceasing fire are that Ukraine must cede all territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, along with officially withdrawing their application to NATO.: 0.76
• Four crew members of a cargo ship in Odesa were killed from a ballistic strike.: 0.44
• Infrastructure was destroyed in Dnipro, according to preliminary reports.: 0.7
• Putin is scheduled to speak with Trump this Friday.: 0.7
• Trump may call Putin this week.: 0.76
• The US may consider restoring military aid under the PDA.: 0.55
• Macron is urging the development of a security guarantees plan if a ceasefire occurs.: 0.65
• The proposed 30-day ceasefire can be extended if both parties agree.: 0.55
• Von der Leyen stated that the US-Ukraine talks are a positive step forward and that the ball is now in Russia's court.: 0.72
• Russian troops are bringing the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region to a logical conclusion, the assault of Sudzha has begun.: 0.8
• A video was released of the Russian MFA claiming Russia will only agree to a permanent ceasefire under Russian terms: 0.6
• Infrastructure was struck in Dnipro, there are damages: 0.7
• Russia is not opposed to contact with US Representatives.: 0.7
• Calin Georgescu was denied the ability to run for president: 0.4
• There is a drone threat in Vinnystia Oblast.: 0.7
• There is a drone threat in Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Poltava.: 0.75
• 4 members of the crew of a ship carrying wheat were killed in a ballistic attack.: 0.5
• Trump confirmed that he is expecting a new meeting with Zelensky at the White House.: 0.65
• A discussion about exchanging prisoners between Russia and Ukraine occurred in Jeddah.: 0.57
• NATO Secretary Rytte is leaving for the US on March 12 and will meet with Trump on March 13.: 0.68
• If Russia does not cease fire, the US will supply Ukraine and continue fighting.: 0.64
• A Russian drone attack hit an infrastructure object in Dnipro.: 0.72
• Anti-drone work is ongoing around Dnipro.: 0.56
• A fundraising campaign is underway for a Russian special forces unit operating in the Sudzha direction, requesting donations for Mavic 3T drones.: 0.52
• The unit involved is the RHBZ (Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense) special forces.: 0.52
• A monument to soldiers of the Great Patriotic War in Cossack Loknya was desecrated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.: 0.68
• A drone attack hit a dry cargo ship traveling the Odessa — Algeria route: 0.6
• 4 crew members were killed, and 1 was injured: 0.66
• Russia will not agree to a temporary ceasefire because this will allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm.: 0.68
• Trump is pushing for a complete ceasefire.: 0.3
• Russia wants a complete and permanent ceasefire, not a temporary one.: 0.56
• Gerasimov inspected the Kursk Group of Forces.: 0.5
• 343 Ukrainian UAVs were downed by Russian air defenses.: 0.4
• The Sever Group of Forces have liberated 12 settlements and more than 100 square kilometers of Kursk region.: 0.5
• The Yug Group of Forces liberated Gorkogo (Donetsk People's Republic).: 0.45
• A series of strikes were carried out in Ukraine.: 0.6
• An infrastructure object is burning in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.58
• A dry cargo ship was damaged in Odessa under the flag of Barbados.: 0.6
• After strikes in Odessa, there were Iskander strikes in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.5
• Drones are expected to arrive in Dnipro soon.: 0.52
• A mineral deal will be signed when the American side considers it convenient: 0.4
• Macron is supportive of the 30-day ceasefire.: 0.7
• There is a drone threat to Zhytomyr Oblast.: 0.75
• There are reports of a multi-regional drone attack in progress.: 0.9
• British Prime Minister Kir Starmer urged Russia to agree to a ceasefire: 0.7
• RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. : 1.0
• US National Security Advisor WALTZ had a phone call with his RUSSIAN COUNTERPART.: 0.68
• US Special Envoy WHITCOFF will travel to MOSCOW this week.: 0.56
• SHOYGU and WALTZ had a phone conversation, discussing, among other things, a ceasefire in Ukraine.: 0.45
• Russia wants to "replace Zelensky, establish a puppet regime," and make Ukraine a "large Austria" with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality.: 0.6
• Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire has put Russia in a difficult position diplomatically.: 0.6
• Russia's goal is to deceive the Trump administration and gain control over Ukraine.: 0.5
• Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine, while European partners want to arm Ukraine.: 0.68
• Trump stated he does not want to pressure Russia to force it into a truce with Ukraine.: 0.7
• Trump mentioned he COULD IMPOSE ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS on Russia, but DOES NOT WANT TO DO SO because he WANTS PEACE. : 0.7
• Ukrainian strikes on four settlements in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, with damage to vehicles and buildings.: 0.6
• There is a drone threat in SUMY OBLAST. : 0.7
• US Vice President VANCE stated that contacts with Russia will occur in person and by phone in the coming days. : 0.7
• Proposes that those involved in the "Stream" operation be awarded Hero of Russia.: 0.4
• Putin held a meeting at one of the control points of the Kursk grouping of troops: 0.5
• A cease fire could begin in a couple of days: 0.5
• Drone activity in DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST, heading NORTH. : 0.7
• Drone activity on the border of KHARKIV and POLTAVA OBLASTS, heading NORTH. : 0.8
• Drone activity in the northeast of POLTAVA OBLAST, heading NORTHWEST. : 0.9
• Drone activity in the north and central parts of SUMY OBLAST, heading SOUTHWEST. : 0.7
• Drone activity headed towards DNIPRO. :0.9
• Drone activity in the north-east