Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 12, 2025, 19:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (18:43 UTC - 19:12 UTC)

1. KURSK REGION: PUTIN'S VISIT, STRATEGIC DECLARATIONS, AND RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Putin's Visit and Statements (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

     • TASS, WarGonzo, Colonelcassad, Rybar, Poddybny |Z|O|V| edition, ASTRA, «Зона СВО», Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна: Multiple sources confirm PUTIN'S VISIT to a COMMAND POST of the KURSK GROUPING OF FORCES. Putin was reportedly briefed by GERASIMOV.
     • TASS, Poddybny |Z|O|V| edition, Rybar, «Зона СВО»: Putin ORDERED the COMPLETE LIBERATION of KURSK OBLAST "in the shortest possible time" and to CONSIDER CREATING A SECURITY ZONE along the RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN BORDER.
     • TASS, Poddybny |Z|O|V| edition, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, «Зона СВО», Два майора, НгП раZVедка: Putin declared that UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS captured in KURSK OBLAST will be treated as TERRORISTS and that FOREIGN MERCENARIES do not fall under the GENEVA CONVENTION.
     • Assessment: Putin's DIRECT INVOLVEMENT, his DEMAND FOR RAPID VICTORY, his CONSIDERATION OF A SECURITY ZONE, and his DESIGNATION OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS AS TERRORISTS represent a MAJOR ESCALATION in RHETORIC AND INTENT. This signals a HARDENING OF THE RUSSIAN POSITION and a LIKELY INTENSIFICATION OF MILITARY OPERATIONS. The SECURITY ZONE concept suggests a POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT into UKRAINIAN TERRITORY, possibly SUMY OBLAST. The TERRORIST DESIGNATION is a CLEAR ATTEMPT to DELEGITIMIZE UKRAINIAN FORCES and JUSTIFY HARSH TREATMENT. The statement regarding foreign mercenaries signals that no protection will be afforded to them.

   • Russian Advances and Claims (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

     • TASS, «Зона СВО», Colonelcassad, Poddybny |Z|O|V| edition: Gerasimov reported that 86% OF THE TERRITORY previously occupied by UKRAINIAN FORCES in KURSK OBLAST has been LIBERATED.
     • ТАСС,«Зона СВО»: Russian forces captured MORE THAN 400 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS.
     • ТАСС,«Зона СВО»: Russian forces HAVE ADVANCED into SUMY OBLAST in "certain areas."
     • TASS: Reports that OVER 600 SOLDIERS participated in OPERATION "TRUBA" (the gas pipeline infiltration), with "Veterans," "Akhmat," the 11th Brigade, and the 30th Regiment being particularly distinguished.
     • Colonelcassad: UKRAINIAN FORCES are SURROUNDED north of MALAYA LOKNYA.
     • Assessment: These claims, if true, represent a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY in the KURSK REGION. The REPORTED CAPTURE OF OVER 400 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS is a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for UKRAINE. The CLAIMED ADVANCE INTO SUMY OBLAST is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT that SIGNALS A WIDENING OF THE CONFLICT. URGENT VERIFICATION from INDEPENDENT SOURCES is ESSENTIAL.

2. DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:43, 18:56, 19:01 UTC): Reports:
     • Drone activity in DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST, heading NORTH.
     • Drone activity on the border of KHARKIV and POLTAVA OBLASTS, heading NORTH.
     • Drone activity in the northeast of POLTAVA OBLAST, heading NORTHWEST.
     • Drone activity in the north and central parts of SUMY OBLAST, heading SOUTHWEST.
     • Drone activity in the north-east and north of KHARKIV OBLAST. A drone flying west of KHARKIV and headed south.
     • Drone activity headed towards DNIPRO.
   • Assessment: This confirms CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The MOVEMENT OF DRONES towards DNIPRO, a MAJOR CITY, is a SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

3. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

• РБК-Україна (19:08 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian artillery DESTROYED a RUSSIAN S-400 LAUNCHER. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:59 UTC): Reports on the poor conditions of water in Donetsk.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (19:11 UTC): Reports that Canada will implement 25% tariffs on goods from the U.S.
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:01 UTC): Fundraising for Mavic 3 Pro drones.
• Офіс Генерального прокурора (18:46 UTC): Reports on strikes on Druzhkivsʹka and Kostyantynivsʹka, with 12 civilians, including children, reported injured. * ASTRA (19:12 UTC): Reports that Russia will treat captured UAF as terrorists.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:
  • PUTIN'S VISIT TO KURSK COMMAND POST AND SUBSEQUENT DECLARATIONS signal a MAJOR ESCALATION in RUSSIAN INTENT and a LIKELY INTENSIFICATION OF MILITARY OPERATIONS. The ORDER TO COMPLETELY LIBERATE KURSK OBLAST, the CONSIDERATION OF A SECURITY ZONE, and the DESIGNATION OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS AS TERRORISTS are all CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, including the LIBERATION OF 86% OF PREVIOUSLY OCCUPIED TERRITORY, the CAPTURE OF OVER 400 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS, and ADVANCES INTO SUMY OBLAST. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• HIGH PRIORITY:
  • UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROYED a RUSSIAN S-400 LAUNCHER. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, with DRONES MOVING TOWARDS DNIPRO.
  • ALL PREVIOUS HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
• MEDIUM PRIORITY:
• All previous issues remain relevant.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE ESCALATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in KURSK and SUMY OBLASTS.
     • PRIORITIZE CONFIRMING the EXTENT OF RUSSIAN CONTROL and UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS.
     • ASSESS THE STATUS of UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA, including CASUALTIES, EQUIPMENT LOSSES, and REMAINING FIGHTING CAPABILITY.
   • URGENTLY REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in SUMY OBLAST to PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POSSIBLE RUSSIAN INCURSION into SUMY OBLAST, including DEFENSIVE POSITIONS, EVACUATION PLANS, and COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPTIONS.
   • INCREASE COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE to TARGET RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND ROCKET POSITIONS supporting the OFFENSIVE.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from BORDER AREAS in SUMY OBLAST.

2. ADDRESS THE THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in DNIPRO, KHARKIV, POLTAVA, and SUMY OBLASTS.
   • **PRIORITIZE the INTERCEPTION OF DRONES and the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.

3. VERIFY REPORT OF S-400 DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the REPORTED DESTRUCTION of the RUSSIAN S-400 LAUNCHER.

4. ADDRESS PUTIN'S DECLARATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MONITORING):

   • MONITOR RUSSIAN ACTIONS to ASSESS THE IMPLEMENTATION of PUTIN'S ORDERS, including the TREATMENT OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL LEGAL CHALLENGES regarding the TREATMENT OF PRISONERS OF WAR.
   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN PLANS for a POTENTIAL SECURITY ZONE.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation has DRAMATICALLY ESCALATED with PUTIN'S VISIT TO THE KURSK COMMAND POST and his SUBSEQUENT DECLARATIONS. The THREAT OF A WIDENING CONFLICT into SUMY OBLAST is NOW HIGH. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THE DETERIORATING SITUATION in the KURSK/SUMY REGION and to PREPARE FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.

[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The U.S. and Russia will hold meetings regarding Ukraine on March 11 or 12.: 0.7
• : 0.08
• Trump's statement is an attempt to influence negotiations.: 0.04
• The meetings are already planned.: 0.03
• The information is false or misleading.: 0.01
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.99999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
• The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
• Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
• Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72
• Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes all fronts, not just air and sea.: 0.98
• Russian media and officials express high skepticism towards the ceasefire proposal, viewing it as a trap for Ukraine to rearm and regroup.: 0.93
• There are reports of planned meetings between US and Russian officials on March 11 or 12 to discuss the ceasefire proposal.: 0.99999999999999
• A ballistic missile threat was reported and then lifted for Odesa.: 0.75
• Continued drone threats are present across multiple Ukrainian regions.: 0.99999999999999
• France is replacing the US in providing satellite intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.6
• There are claims of Russian forces in Sudzha.: 0.99999
• Russian forces are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.85
• Russian forces continue to advance in the counterterrorism operation zone, liberating Makhnovka, Kazachya Loknya, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye.: 0.78
• Trump believes Putin's agreement to a ceasefire would represent 75% of the way to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.: 0.65
• Talks between US and Russian contact groups will occur tomorrow.: 0.8
• Russia does not rule out contacts with US representatives in the next few days.: 0.85
• Russian troops are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.75
• Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part of Shevchenko as a result of Russian counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for the northern part.: 0.65
• Assault groups have reached the outskirts of the city from Mirny, Zamostye, and Kazachya Loknya: 0.85
• Roads in the city are under the control of Russian troops.: 0.9
• The 11th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed at least five Ukrainian vehicles that were attempting to reinforce Sudzha: 0.86
• Russian troops are occupying the Central Market: 0.999
• Ukrainian troops are attempting to escape via side roads and through fields: 0.75
• Trump intends to speak with Putin: 0.99
• Von der Leyen stated that the EU will fully play its role in upcoming negotiations.: 0.8
• A video call between Russia and Trump is possible.: 0.65
• Putin's conditions to ceasing fire are that Ukraine must cede all territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, along with officially withdrawing their application to NATO.: 0.76
• Four crew members of a cargo ship in Odesa were killed from a ballistic strike.: 0.44
• Infrastructure was destroyed in Dnipro, according to preliminary reports.: 0.7
• Putin is scheduled to speak with Trump this Friday.: 0.7
• Trump may call Putin this week.: 0.76
• The US may consider restoring military aid under the PDA.: 0.55
• Macron is urging the development of a security guarantees plan if a ceasefire occurs.: 0.65
• The proposed 30-day ceasefire can be extended if both parties agree.: 0.55
• Von der Leyen stated that the US-Ukraine talks are a positive step forward and that the ball is now in Russia's court.: 0.72
• Russian troops are bringing the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region to a logical conclusion, the assault of Sudzha has begun.: 0.8
• A video was released of the Russian MFA claiming Russia will only agree to a permanent ceasefire under Russian terms: 0.6
• Infrastructure was struck in Dnipro, there are damages: 0.7
• Russia is not opposed to contact with US Representatives.: 0.7
• Calin Georgescu was denied the ability to run for president: 0.4
• There is a drone threat in Vinnystia Oblast.: 0.7
• There is a drone threat in Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Poltava.: 0.75
• 4 members of the crew of a ship carrying wheat were killed in a ballistic attack.: 0.5
• Trump confirmed that he is expecting a new meeting with Zelensky at the White House.: 0.65
• A discussion about exchanging prisoners between Russia and Ukraine occurred in Jeddah.: 0.57
• NATO Secretary Rytte is leaving for the US on March 12 and will meet with Trump on March 13.: 0.68
• If Russia does not cease fire, the US will supply Ukraine and continue fighting.: 0.64
• A Russian drone attack hit an infrastructure object in Dnipro.: 0.72
• Anti-drone work is ongoing around Dnipro.: 0.56
• A fundraising campaign is underway for a Russian special forces unit operating in the Sudzha direction, requesting donations for Mavic 3T drones.: 0.52
• The unit involved is the RHBZ (Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense) special forces.: 0.52
• A monument to soldiers of the Great Patriotic War in Cossack Loknya was desecrated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.: 0.68
• A drone attack hit a dry cargo ship traveling the Odessa — Algeria route: 0.6
• 4 crew members were killed, and 1 was injured: 0.66
• Russia will not agree to a temporary ceasefire because this will allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm.: 0.68
• Trump is pushing for a complete ceasefire.: 0.3
• Russia wants a complete and permanent ceasefire, not a temporary one.: 0.56
• Gerasimov inspected the Kursk Group of Forces.: 0.5
• 343 Ukrainian UAVs were downed by Russian air defenses.: 0.4
• The Sever Group of Forces have liberated 12 settlements and more than 100 square kilometers of Kursk region.: 0.5
• The Yug Group of Forces liberated Gorkogo (Donetsk People's Republic).: 0.45
• A series of strikes were carried out in Ukraine.: 0.6
• An infrastructure object is burning in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.58
• A dry cargo ship was damaged in Odessa under the flag of Barbados.: 0.6
• After strikes in Odessa, there were Iskander strikes in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.5
• Drones are expected to arrive in Dnipro soon.: 0.52
• A mineral deal will be signed when the American side considers it convenient: 0.4
• Macron is supportive of the 30-day ceasefire.: 0.7
• There is a drone threat to Zhytomyr Oblast.: 0.75
• There are reports of a multi-regional drone attack in progress.: 0.9
• British Prime Minister Kir Starmer urged Russia to agree to a ceasefire: 0.7
• RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. : 1.0
• US National Security Advisor WALTZ had a phone call with his RUSSIAN COUNTERPART.: 0.68
• US Special Envoy WHITCOFF will travel to MOSCOW this week.: 0.56
• SHOYGU and WALTZ had a phone conversation, discussing, among other things, a ceasefire in Ukraine.: 0.45
• Russia wants to "replace Zelensky, establish a puppet regime," and make Ukraine a "large Austria" with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality.: 0.6
• Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire has put Russia in a difficult position diplomatically.: 0.6
• Russia's goal is to deceive the Trump administration and gain control over Ukraine.: 0.5
• Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine, while European partners want to arm Ukraine.: 0.68
• Trump stated he does not want to pressure Russia to force it into a truce with Ukraine.: 0.7
• Trump mentioned he COULD IMPOSE ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS on Russia, but DOES NOT WANT TO DO SO because he WANTS PEACE. : 0.7
• Ukrainian strikes on four settlements in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, with damage to vehicles and buildings.: 0.6
• There is a drone threat in SUMY OBLAST. : 0.7
• US Vice President VANCE stated that contacts with Russia will occur in person and by phone in the coming days. : 0.7
• Proposes that those involved in the "Stream" operation be awarded Hero of Russia.: 0.4
• Putin held a meeting at one of the control points of the Kursk grouping of troops: 0.5
• A cease fire could begin in a couple of days: 0.5
• Drone activity in DNEPROPETROVSK OBLAST, heading NORTH. : 0.7
• Drone activity on the border of KHARKIV and POLTAVA OBLASTS, heading NORTH. : 0.8
• Drone activity in the northeast of POLTAVA OBLAST, heading NORTHWEST. : 0.9
• Drone activity in the north and central parts of SUMY OBLAST, heading SOUTHWEST. : 0.7
• Drone activity headed towards DNIPRO. :0.9
• Drone activity in the north-east and north of KHARKIV OBLAST. : 0.9
• A drone flying west of KHARKIV and headed south. : 0.7
• Canada will implement 25% tariffs on goods from the U.S. : 0.7
• Strikes on Druzhkivsʹka and Kostyantynivsʹka, with 12 civilians, including children, reported injured.: 0.7
• Russia will treat captured UAF as terrorists.: 0.9
• Ukrainian artillery DESTROYED a *RUSSIAN S-400 LAUNCHER: 0.5

Updated calculation example:

• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Drone activity on the border of KHARKIV and POLTAVA OBLASTS, heading NORTH. : 0.8

Calculation: (0.7,0.8)

Belief: 0.94