Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 12, 2025, 18:42 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (18:13 UTC - 18:42 UTC)
KURSK REGION: SUDZHA - RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF FURTHER ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (18:15 UTC): Claims Russian forces liberated the village of PODOL and the hamlet of MELOVOY. Reports "fierce resistance" from remaining Ukrainian forces.
НгП раZVедка (18:27 UTC): Claims that a Ukrainian group surrounded in the MELOVOYE UROCHISHCHE area was "destroyed." Reports that other Ukrainian groups are attempting to break out of encirclement.
Военкор Котенок (18:40 UTC): Reports that Russian forces have "cleared" SUDZHA and are consolidating on the WESTERN OUTSKIRTS. Claims the liberation of MELOVOY and PODOL. Reports ongoing fighting in ZAOLESHINKA and Ukrainian hopes for reinforcements from YUNAKOVKA. Claims Russian attacks towards BASOVKA.
Z комитет + карта СВО (18:32 UTC): Shows a map claiming Russian forces "continue to advance in the KTO zone" and have "liberated" 1-Y KNYAZHY, 2-Y KNYAZHY, MELOVOY, and PODOL.
* Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (18:22 UTC): Reports the liberation of DNEPROENERGIYA, north of BURKUTSKOY.
* Assessment: The CONSISTENT REPORTS from MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES strongly suggest a CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the SUDZHA AREA, with the CLAIMED LIBERATION of SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SETTLEMENTS. The REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES BEING SURROUNDED AND DESTROYED, along with CLAIMS OF A DISORGANIZED WITHDRAWAL, indicate a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA. The REPORTED FIGHTING in ZAOLESHINKA and RUSSIAN ATTACKS towards BASOVKA suggest a WIDENING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. The liberation of DNEPROENERGIYA is also significant. The YUNAKOVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is likely under RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. URGENT VERIFICATION from UKRAINIAN SOURCES is ESSENTIAL.
ТАСС (18:11 UTC): Reports that US National Security Advisor WALTZ had a phone call with his RUSSIAN COUNTERPART on March 12th. (18:12 UTC): Reports that US Special Envoy WHITCOFF will travel to MOSCOW this week.
РБК-Україна (18:35 UTC): Reports that US Vice President VANCE stated that contacts with Russia will occur in person and by phone in the coming days.
Colonelcassad (18:30 UTC): Reports that SHOYGU and WALTZ had a phone conversation, discussing, among other things, a ceasefire in Ukraine.
* Alex Parker Returns (18:32 UTC): Repeats the report of the Shoigu-Waltz phone call and Whitcoff's upcoming trip to Moscow.
* Assessment: This CONFIRMS that HIGH-LEVEL CONTACTS between the US AND RUSSIA are TAKING PLACE, both BY PHONE and with an UPCOMING IN-PERSON MEETING. The FOCUS ON A CEASEFIRE is SIGNIFICANT, suggesting that NEGOTIATIONS are UNDERWAY.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:22 UTC): Citing The Financial Times, claims that Russia wants to "replace Zelensky, establish a puppet regime," and make Ukraine a "large Austria" with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality. Reports that Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire has put Russia in a difficult position diplomatically. Claims Russia's goal is to deceive the Trump administration and gain control over Ukraine. Claims Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine, while European partners want to arm Ukraine.
Assessment: This REPRESENTS UKRAINE'S VIEW that RUSSIA'S ULTIMATE GOAL is REGIME CHANGE and CONTROL OVER UKRAINE, not a GENUINE PEACE SETTLEMENT. The CLAIM that UKRAINE'S CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT has PUT RUSSIA IN A DIFFICULT POSITION suggests a STRATEGY to EXPOSE RUSSIAN INTENTIONS and GAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. The DISCREPANCY between RUSSIAN DEMANDS FOR DEMILITARIZATION and EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR ARMING UKRAINE highlights a MAJOR POINT OF CONTENTION.
TRUMP'S POSITION ON CEASEFIRE, PRESSURE ON RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:13 UTC): Reports that Trump stated he does not want to pressure Russia to force it into a truce with Ukraine. States that Trump mentioned he COULD IMPOSE ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS on Russia, but DOES NOT WANT TO DO SO because he WANTS PEACE.
Assessment: This indicates TRUMP'S RELUCTANCE to USE COERCIVE MEASURES against RUSSIA, despite HAVING THE OPTION TO DO SO. His EMPHASIS ON PEACE suggests a PREFERENCE FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT, but the TERMS of such a SETTLEMENT remain UNCLEAR.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
ASTRA (18:17 UTC): Reports Ukrainian strikes on four settlements in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, with damage to vehicles and buildings.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:29 UTC): Reports a drone threat in SUMY OBLAST.
ТАСС (18:27 UTC): Proposes that those involved in the "Stream" operation be awarded Hero of Russia.
Assessment: The drone threat remains active.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION, PARTICULARLY AROUND SUDZHA. MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES claim the LIBERATION OF SEVERAL SETTLEMENTS, a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, and RUSSIAN FORCES CONSOLIDATING on the WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF SUDZHA. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is likely under RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. URGENT VERIFICATION from UKRAINIAN SOURCES is ESSENTIAL.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED HIGH-LEVEL CONTACTS BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA, including a PHONE CALL between NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORS and an UPCOMING IN-PERSON MEETING in MOSCOW. NEGOTIATIONS regarding a CEASEFIRE are UNDERWAY.
CONFLICTING NARRATIVES SURROUNDING NEGOTIATIONS. UKRAINE claims RUSSIA seeks REGIME CHANGE and CONTROL, while RUSSIA (through various sources) expresses DISTRUST of UKRAINE and POTENTIAL MAXIMALIST DEMANDS.
CONTINUED DRONE THREAT in SUMY OBLAST.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
TRUMP'S RELUCTANCE to PRESSURE RUSSIA with SANCTIONS, despite HAVING THE OPTION TO DO SO. His EMPHASIS ON PEACE suggests a PREFERENCE FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT.
REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN STRIKES on RUSSIAN TERRITORY in BELGOROD OBLAST.
Updated Recommendations
CLARIFY THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (drones, human intelligence, signal intelligence) to DETERMINE THE EXACT STATUS of CONTROL IN SUDZHA and SURROUNDING SETTLEMENTS.
PRIORITIZEVERIFYING the EXTENT OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS.
ASSESS the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA, including CASUALTIES, EQUIPMENT LOSSES, and REMAINING FIGHTING CAPABILITY.
DETERMINE if UKRAINIAN FORCES are ENCIRCLED or if ESCAPE ROUTES remain OPEN.
IF UKRAINIAN FORCES REMAIN IN THE AREA, URGENTLY ASSESS their ABILITY TO HOLD their POSITIONS.
IF FEASIBLE, PROVIDE REINFORCEMENTS and SUPPORT to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
IF A WITHDRAWAL IS NECESSARY, ENSURE A CONTROLLED RETREAT, prioritizing the SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
PREPARE EVACUATION PLANS for CIVILIANS in AFFECTED AREAS.
INVESTIGATE reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in OTHER AREAS of the KURSK REGION, such as BASOVKA.
INVESTIGATE reports of Russian advances in DNEPROENERGIYA.
MONITOR AND ASSESS NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
GATHER ALL AVAILABLE INFORMATION on the US-RUSSIA CONTACTS, including the SPECIFIC TERMS being DISCUSSED and the POSITIONS OF BOTH SIDES.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of any AGREEMENT on the MILITARY SITUATION and UKRAINE'S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES.
DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for VARIOUS SCENARIOS, including a CEASEFIRE, a NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT, and a CONTINUATION OF THE CONFLICT.
ANALYZE UKRAINIAN CLAIMS regarding RUSSIAN INTENTIONS and ASSESS THEIR CREDIBILITY.
MONITOR FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS from US, RUSSIAN, AND UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS regarding the NEGOTIATIONS.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST.
**PRIORITIZE the INTERCEPTION OF DRONES and the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
ADDRESS REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN STRIKES ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):
INVESTIGATE the REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN STRIKES on SETTLEMENTS in BELGOROD OBLAST.
DETERMINE the TARGETS, the WEAPONS USED, and the EXTENT OF DAMAGE.
ASSESS the POTENTIAL FOR RUSSIAN RETALIATION.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with RAPID DEVELOPMENTS on BOTH THE MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC FRONTS. The RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION, particularly AROUND SUDZHA, represents a MAJOR THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA. The CONFIRMED HIGH-LEVEL CONTACTS between the US AND RUSSIA offer a POTENTIAL PATHWAY to a CEASEFIRE, but CONFLICTING NARRATIVES and UNCLEAR INTENTIONS create SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SITUATIONS.
[Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The U.S. and Russia will hold meetings regarding Ukraine on March 11 or 12.: 0.7
: 0.08
Trump's statement is an attempt to influence negotiations.: 0.04
The meetings are already planned.: 0.03
The information is false or misleading.: 0.01
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.99999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72
Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes all fronts, not just air and sea.: 0.98
Russian media and officials express high skepticism towards the ceasefire proposal, viewing it as a trap for Ukraine to rearm and regroup.: 0.93
There are reports of planned meetings between US and Russian officials on March 11 or 12 to discuss the ceasefire proposal.: 0.99999999999999
A ballistic missile threat was reported and then lifted for Odesa.: 0.75
Continued drone threats are present across multiple Ukrainian regions.: 0.99999999999999
France is replacing the US in providing satellite intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.6
There are claims of Russian forces in Sudzha.: 0.99999
Russian forces are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.85
Russian forces continue to advance in the counterterrorism operation zone, liberating Makhnovka, Kazachya Loknya, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye.: 0.78
Trump believes Putin's agreement to a ceasefire would represent 75% of the way to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.: 0.65
Talks between US and Russian contact groups will occur tomorrow.: 0.8
Russia does not rule out contacts with US representatives in the next few days.: 0.85
Russian troops are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.75
Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part of Shevchenko as a result of Russian counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for the northern part.: 0.65
Assault groups have reached the outskirts of the city from Mirny, Zamostye, and Kazachya Loknya: 0.85
Roads in the city are under the control of Russian troops.: 0.9
The 11th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed at least five Ukrainian vehicles that were attempting to reinforce Sudzha: 0.86
Russian troops are occupying the Central Market: 0.999
Ukrainian troops are attempting to escape via side roads and through fields: 0.75
Trump intends to speak with Putin: 0.99
Von der Leyen stated that the EU will fully play its role in upcoming negotiations.: 0.8
A video call between Russia and Trump is possible.: 0.65
Putin's conditions to ceasing fire are that Ukraine must cede all territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, along with officially withdrawing their application to NATO.: 0.76
Four crew members of a cargo ship in Odesa were killed from a ballistic strike.: 0.44
Infrastructure was destroyed in Dnipro, according to preliminary reports.: 0.7
Putin is scheduled to speak with Trump this Friday.: 0.7
Trump may call Putin this week.: 0.76
The US may consider restoring military aid under the PDA.: 0.55
Macron is urging the development of a security guarantees plan if a ceasefire occurs.: 0.65
The proposed 30-day ceasefire can be extended if both parties agree.: 0.55
Von der Leyen stated that the US-Ukraine talks are a positive step forward and that the ball is now in Russia's court.: 0.72
Russian troops are bringing the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region to a logical conclusion, the assault of Sudzha has begun.: 0.8
A video was released of the Russian MFA claiming Russia will only agree to a permanent ceasefire under Russian terms: 0.6
Infrastructure was struck in Dnipro, there are damages: 0.7
Russia is not opposed to contact with US Representatives.: 0.7
Calin Georgescu was denied the ability to run for president: 0.4
There is a drone threat in Vinnystia Oblast.: 0.7
There is a drone threat in Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Poltava.: 0.75
4 members of the crew of a ship carrying wheat were killed in a ballistic attack.: 0.5
Trump confirmed that he is expecting a new meeting with Zelensky at the White House.: 0.65
A discussion about exchanging prisoners between Russia and Ukraine occurred in Jeddah.: 0.57
NATO Secretary Rytte is leaving for the US on March 12 and will meet with Trump on March 13.: 0.68
If Russia does not cease fire, the US will supply Ukraine and continue fighting.: 0.64
A Russian drone attack hit an infrastructure object in Dnipro.: 0.72
Anti-drone work is ongoing around Dnipro.: 0.56
A fundraising campaign is underway for a Russian special forces unit operating in the Sudzha direction, requesting donations for Mavic 3T drones.: 0.52
The unit involved is the RHBZ (Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense) special forces.: 0.52
A monument to soldiers of the Great Patriotic War in Cossack Loknya was desecrated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.: 0.68
A drone attack hit a dry cargo ship traveling the Odessa — Algeria route: 0.6
4 crew members were killed, and 1 was injured: 0.66
Russia will not agree to a temporary ceasefire because this will allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm.: 0.68
Trump is pushing for a complete ceasefire.: 0.3
Russia wants a complete and permanent ceasefire, not a temporary one.: 0.56
Gerasimov inspected the Kursk Group of Forces.: 0.5
343 Ukrainian UAVs were downed by Russian air defenses.: 0.4
The Sever Group of Forces have liberated 12 settlements and more than 100 square kilometers of Kursk region.: 0.5
The Yug Group of Forces liberated Gorkogo (Donetsk People's Republic).: 0.45
A series of strikes were carried out in Ukraine.: 0.6
An infrastructure object is burning in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.58
A dry cargo ship was damaged in Odessa under the flag of Barbados.: 0.6
After strikes in Odessa, there were Iskander strikes in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.5
Drones are expected to arrive in Dnipro soon.: 0.52
A mineral deal will be signed when the American side considers it convenient: 0.4
Macron is supportive of the 30-day ceasefire.: 0.7
There is a drone threat to Zhytomyr Oblast.: 0.75
There are reports of a multi-regional drone attack in progress.: 0.9
British Prime Minister Kir Starmer urged Russia to agree to a ceasefire: 0.7
RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. : 1.0
US National Security Advisor WALTZ had a phone call with his RUSSIAN COUNTERPART.: 0.68
US Special Envoy WHITCOFF will travel to MOSCOW this week.: 0.56
SHOYGU and WALTZ had a phone conversation, discussing, among other things, a ceasefire in Ukraine.: 0.45
Russia wants to "replace Zelensky, establish a puppet regime," and make Ukraine a "large Austria" with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality.: 0.6
Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire has put Russia in a difficult position diplomatically.: 0.6
Russia's goal is to deceive the Trump administration and gain control over Ukraine.: 0.5
Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine, while European partners want to arm Ukraine.: 0.68
Trump stated he does not want to pressure Russia to force it into a truce with Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump mentioned he COULD IMPOSE ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS on Russia, but DOES NOT WANT TO DO SO because he WANTS PEACE. : 0.7
Ukrainian strikes on four settlements in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, with damage to vehicles and buildings.: 0.6
There is a drone threat in SUMY OBLAST. : 0.7
US Vice President VANCE stated that contacts with Russia will occur in person and by phone in the coming days. : 0.7
Proposes that those involved in the "Stream" operation be awarded Hero of Russia.: 0.4
Putin held a meeting at one of the control points of the Kursk grouping of troops: 0.5
A cease fire could begin in a couple of days: 0.5
Updated calculation method example:
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.999999999999999
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
