Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 19:42 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (19:13 UTC - 19:42 UTC)
FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Alex Parker Returns (19:41 UTC): Claims Trump believes Putin's agreement to a ceasefire would represent 75% of the way to resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Announces talks between US and Russian contact groups tomorrow.
ТАСС (19:38 UTC): Maria Zakharova states that Russia does not rule out contacts with US representatives in the next few days.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:41 UTC): Reports that Ukraine will discuss the details of ensuring a "regime of silence" with partners next week, if Russia agrees.
Assessment: These reports provide STRONG CORROBORATION of IMMINENT TALKS between the US AND RUSSIA. The RUSSIAN CONFIRMATION through ZAKHAROVA is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT. The UKRAINIAN STATEMENT indicates PREPARATION FOR IMPLEMENTATION of a POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE. The CLAIM that a CEASEFIRE would represent 75% of the way to RESOLUTION is HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC and LIKELY RHETORICAL, but INDICATES TRUMP'S DESIRE FOR A QUICK RESOLUTION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:26 UTC): Claims Russian troops are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.
Z комитет + карта СВО (19:36 UTC): Claims Russian forces continue to advance in the counterterrorism operation zone, liberating Makhnovka, Kazachya Loknya, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye. Includes maps depicting the area.
Assessment:MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCESCONFIRM CONTINUED ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA. The CLAIM OF OCCUPYING THE CENTER OF SUDZHA is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, if TRUE. The LIBERATION OF MULTIPLE SETTLEMENTS indicates SIGNIFICANT GAINS by RUSSIAN FORCES. The MAPS PROVIDED offer VISUAL EVIDENCE of the CLAIMED ADVANCES. The INTENSITY OF FIGHTING and the SPEED OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES are CONCERNING.
Colonelcassad (19:20): Reports Russian forces advancing towards bridges.
Kadyrov_95 (19:21): Reports Russian capture of Ukrainian soldier.
Assessment: This FURTHER report CONFIRMS Russian advances.
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Николаевский Ванёк (19:20 UTC): Reports multiple drone movements across Ukraine:
* 4 drones at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, course northwest.
* 1 drone near Elanets.
* 1 drone in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
* 1 new drone from Kosa towards Parutino.
* 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast flying into Kirovohrad Oblast.
* 5 new drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Pavlohrad.
* 1 drone towards/through Pokrovsk.
* 2 drones in the Lozova area of Kharkiv Oblast.
* 2 drones west of Poltava.
* 7 drones at the intersection of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts.
* 1 drone slightly south of Kharkiv - may be loud.
* 2 drones in the north of Poltava Oblast.
* 1 drone towards/through Nizhyn.
Assessment: This represents a MAJOR, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across NUMEROUS REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The SCALE AND SCOPE of the ATTACK are CONCERNING. The TARGETING OF MULTIPLE REGIONS simultaneously STRETCHES UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES THIN. The REPORTS OF DRONES NEAR MAJOR CITIES (Kharkiv, Poltava) and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE (Parutino) raise the RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
FIGHTING IN SHEVCHENKO, POKROVSK DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (19:36 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part of Shevchenko as a result of Russian counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for the northern part.
Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED FIGHTING and POTENTIAL RUSSIAN GAINS in the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The REPORT OF COUNTERATTACKS suggests INTENSE FIGHTING and SHIFTING CONTROL.
OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:
Дневник Десантника (19:24 UTC): Reports losing many drones and asking for help.
Assessment: This FURTHER supports reports of INTENSE FIGHTING and HIGH ATTRITION RATES for DRONES.
Два майора (19:24): States that there are no 30-day ceasefires.
Aviahub (19:25 UTC): States that there are no 30-day ceasefires.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:25 UTC): Reports Macron requesting a security plan.
РБК-Україна (19:26 UTC): Reports Trump stating he would talk to Putin.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:25): Reports that Putin is being forced to the table.
Colonelcassad (19:29): Reports on liberations.
Военкор Котенок (19:31): Reports on a fight.
Рыбарь (19:31): Reports on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:32): Reports that Trump will continue the war if Russia declines a ceasefire.
Alex Parker Returns (19:34, 19:35 UTC): Reports that Trump will continue fighting if Russia doesn't stop.
STERNENKO (19:36 UTC): States that it is important to "increase the cutting" of Russians.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED IMMINENT TALKS between US AND RUSSIA regarding the CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL. RUSSIAN SOURCESCONFIRM CONTACTS ARE POSSIBLE. UKRAINIAN SOURCES indicate PREPARATION FOR IMPLEMENTATION.
CONFIRMED CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA, with MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES claiming CONTROL OF THE CENTER OF SUDZHA and the LIBERATION OF SEVERAL SETTLEMENTS.
MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE, threatening MULTIPLE REGIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED FIGHTING in the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with REPORTS OF RUSSIAN GAINS in SHEVCHENKO.
Updated Recommendations
MONITOR RUSSIAN REACTION TO CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL AND THE MEETINGS BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
CLOSELY MONITOROFFICIAL RUSSIAN STATEMENTS and MEDIA REPORTS for any INDICATION OF ACCEPTANCE OR REJECTION of the CEASEFIRE.
ASSESS THE LIKELIHOOD of RUSSIAN COMPLIANCE based on PAST BEHAVIOR, CURRENT MILITARY POSTURE, and INTERNAL POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS.
DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for BOTH SCENARIOS: CEASEFIRE IMPLEMENTATION and CONTINUED FIGHTING.
MONITORREPORTS of MEETINGS between the US and RUSSIA.
DETERMINERUSSIAN POSITION on CEASEFIRE.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL THREATENED REGIONS, particularly:
ODESSA OBLAST
MYKOLAIV OBLAST
KIROVOHRAD OBLAST
DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST
ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST
KHARKIV OBLAST
POLTAVA OBLAST
CHERKASY OBLAST
PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, POPULATION CENTERS, and MILITARY ASSETS.
DEPLOY MOBILE AIR DEFENSE UNITS to INTERCEPT DRONES along REPORTED FLIGHT PATHS.
UTILIZE ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS to JAM DRONE SIGNALS.
COORDINATE with ALLIED FORCES to SHARE INTELLIGENCE on DRONE ACTIVITY and REQUEST ASSISTANCE, if needed.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
URGENTLY VERIFY the CLAIM OF RUSSIAN CONTROL OF THE CENTER OF SUDZHA. This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION OR REFUTATION.
ASSESS THE IMPACT of the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LOGISTICS.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT PLANS to COUNTERACT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PREVENT FURTHER LOSS OF TERRITORY.
INCREASE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING in KURSK OBLAST to MONITOR RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from AREAS UNDER THREAT.
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY of COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPERATIONS to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY, if feasible.
ADDRESS FIGHTING IN THE POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY the REPORTS OF RUSSIAN GAINS in SHEVCHENKO.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in the AREA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
INCREASE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING to MONITOR RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL and HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The IMMINENT TALKS between the US AND RUSSIA offer a POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY for DE-ESCALATION, but the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA and the MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across UKRAINE represent MAJOR THREATS. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CONSTANT VIGILANCE are ESSENTIAL. PRIORITY ACTIONS include COUNTERING THE DRONE ATTACK, ADDRESSING THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST, and MONITORING THE OUTCOME OF US-RUSSIA TALKS.
[Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The U.S. and Russia will hold meetings regarding Ukraine on March 11 or 12.: 0.56
: 0.2
Trump's statement is an attempt to influence negotiations.: 0.12
The meetings are already planned.: 0.08
The information is false or misleading.: 0.04
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.999999
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.99999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72
Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes all fronts, not just air and sea.: 0.98
Russian media and officials express high skepticism towards the ceasefire proposal, viewing it as a trap for Ukraine to rearm and regroup.: 0.93
There are reports of planned meetings between US and Russian officials on March 11 or 12 to discuss the ceasefire proposal.: 0.99999999999999
A ballistic missile threat was reported and then lifted for Odesa.: 0.75
Continued drone threats are present across multiple Ukrainian regions.: 0.99999999999999
France is replacing the US in providing satellite intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.6
There are claims of Russian forces in Sudzha.: 0.9999
Russian forces are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.75
Russian forces continue to advance in the counterterrorism operation zone, liberating Makhnovka, Kazachya Loknya, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye.: 0.78
Trump believes Putin's agreement to a ceasefire would represent 75% of the way to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.: 0.52
Talks between US and Russian contact groups will occur tomorrow.: 0.7
Russia does not rule out contacts with US representatives in the next few days.: 0.7
Russian troops are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part of Shevchenko as a result of Russian counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for the northern part.: 0.65
