Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 19:12 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (18:43 UTC - 19:12 UTC)
FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF 30-DAY CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT, RUSSIAN SKEPTICISM CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Zelenskiy / Official (19:01 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (19:11 UTC), РБК-Україна (19:08 UTC) , ASTRA (18:41 UTC), Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (18:45 UTC), 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (18:36 UTC), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (18:38 UTC) and many others: Multiple Ukrainian channels, including official channels and Zelenskiy, continue to confirm that Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-DAY COMPLETE CEASEFIRE, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes ALL FRONTS, not just air and sea. The US will reportedly resume intelligence sharing and military aid.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:43 UTC): Confirms the reports, stating that "Ukraine agreed to abandon its idea of an 'air-sea' truce and accept the US proposal for a complete ceasefire."
* Alex Parker Returns (18:43 UTC, 18:58, 19:10 UTC): Continues to be HIGHLY SKEPTICAL of the CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL, framing it as a TRAP to allow UKRAINE TO REARM AND REGROUP. Claims Putin agreed to it.
* Два майора (18:59 UTC): Suggests the Russian response to the proposal is ready to be "sent to Ukraine."
* Kotsnews (18:33 UTC): Claims the ceasefire is a move to save Ukraine from a major defeat in the Kursk region.
* НгП раZVедка (18:52): Calls the ceasefire a "betrayal" of Russian interests.
* ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:54): Reports that the State Duma stated that Russia would not agree to the ceasefire.
Оперативний ЗСУ (18:56 UTC): Reports that Russian bloggers also do not support the idea.
STERNENKO (18:57 UTC): Shows multiple examples of Russian sources that oppose the idea.
* Assessment: The UKRAINIAN ACCEPTANCE of the 30-DAY COMPLETE CEASEFIRE is FULLY CONFIRMED by MULTIPLE SOURCES, including ZELENSKY HIMSELF and OFFICIAL UKRAINIAN CHANNELS. The CONTINGENCY ON RUSSIAN ACCEPTANCE remains CRITICAL. The RUSSIAN REACTION remains HIGHLY SKEPTICAL, with the vast majority of sources viewing the CEASEFIRE as a DECEPTION, and some reporting it as a BETRAYAL.
REPORTED MEETINGS BETWEEN US AND RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ТАСС (19:09 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (19:11 UTC), ASTRA (19:12 UTC): Report that Trump stated that the US and Russia will hold meetings about Ukraine on March 11 or 12.
Assessment: This suggests POTENTIAL DIRECT TALKS between the US AND RUSSIA regarding the CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL. The IMMEDIATE TIMEFRAME (March 11 or 12) is SIGNIFICANT, indicating a HIGH LEVEL OF URGENCY.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:07 UTC): Claims Russian forces have driven Ukrainian forces out of the eastern part of Sudzha.
Colonelcassad (19:06 UTC) claims they are in Sudzha, with a video.
Assessment: Claims of a Russian advance.
CONTINUED DRONE THREAT, MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:04): Reports drone movements, including one group near Mykolaiv heading northwest toward Odesa.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:08 UTC): Reports drone threat for Cherkasy.
Assessment:CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS, despite the CEASEFIRE TALKS.
OTHER REPORTS
Дневник Десантника (19:05): Reports requests for help in the acquiring of drones.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (19:09 UTC): Posts images of the situation on the front.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED 30-DAY COMPLETE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT between US AND UKRAINE, CONTINGENT ON RUSSIAN ACCEPTANCE. RUSSIAN REACTION is OVERWHELMINGLY NEGATIVE.
REPORTED MEETINGS between US AND RUSSIA on MARCH 11 AND 12.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED DRONE THREAT across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE.
CLAIMEDRUSSIAN ADVANCES in SUDZHA.
Updated Recommendations
MONITOR RUSSIAN REACTION TO CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL AND THE MEETINGS BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
CLOSELY MONITOROFFICIAL RUSSIAN STATEMENTS and MEDIA REPORTS for any INDICATION OF ACCEPTANCE OR REJECTION of the CEASEFIRE.
ASSESS THE LIKELIHOOD of RUSSIAN COMPLIANCE based on PAST BEHAVIOR, CURRENT MILITARY POSTURE, and INTERNAL POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS.
DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for BOTH SCENARIOS: CEASEFIRE IMPLEMENTATION and CONTINUED FIGHTING.
MONITORREPORTS of MEETINGS between the US and RUSSIA.
DETERMINERUSSIAN POSITION on CEASEFIRE.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in ODESSA and other regions under BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across MULTIPLE REGIONS due to ONGOING DRONE THREAT.
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue MAXIMUM DEPLOYMENT of ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to confirm or refute Russian claims of advances.
Assess the IMPACT on Ukrainian defensive positions if claims are confirmed.
MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continuously monitor battlefield conditions, troop movements, and air activity.
Provide commanders with REAL-TIME UPDATES and THREAT ASSESSMENTS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC and has SHIFTED with the CONFIRMED 30-DAY COMPLETE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT between the US AND UKRAINE. However, RUSSIAN ACCEPTANCE remains CRITICAL and HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. The CONTINUED DRONE THREATS highlight the ONGOING DANGERS, even amidst DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS. CLOSE MONITORING of the RUSSIAN REACTION and MAINTAINING HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSES are ESSENTIAL.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The U.S. and Russia will hold meetings regarding Ukraine on March 11 or 12.: 0.56
: 0.2
Trump's statement is an attempt to influence negotiations.: 0.12
The meetings are already planned.: 0.08
The information is false or misleading.: 0.04
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.97
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.85
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72
Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes all fronts, not just air and sea.: 0.98
Russian media and officials express high skepticism towards the ceasefire proposal, viewing it as a trap for Ukraine to rearm and regroup.: 0.93
There are reports of planned meetings between US and Russian officials on March 11 or 12 to discuss the ceasefire proposal.: 0.74
A ballistic missile threat was reported and then lifted for Odesa.: 0.75
Continued drone threats are present across multiple Ukrainian regions.: 0.82
France is replacing the US in providing satellite intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.6
There are claims of Russian forces in Sudzha.: 0.78
