Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 11:42 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:12 UTC - 11:42 UTC)

RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (MoD) CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Colonelcassad (11:12 UTC) and TASS (11:39 UTC): The Russian MoD claims that UKRAINIAN FORCES, in a PRE-PLANNED ATTACK prior to US-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS, launched a MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK against RUSSIAN CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. Claims 343 UKRAINIAN DRONES were DESTROYED, including SIX near the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. Claims CIVILIAN CASUALTIES resulted from FALLING DEBRIS.
- TASS (11:36 UTC) Reports the liberation of Gorkogo, DPR.
  - Assessment: This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION in the INFORMATION WARFARE surrounding the CONFLICT. The CLAIM OF A MASSIVE, PRE-PLANNED UKRAINIAN ATTACK on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE is clearly intended to INFLUENCE NEGOTIATIONS and PORTRAY UKRAINE as the AGGRESSOR. The CLAIMED NUMBER OF DRONES DESTROYED (343) is HIGHLY LIKELY EXAGGERATED, but the REPORT OF ATTEMPTS to TARGET the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT is EXTREMELY SERIOUS and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The claimed liberation of Gorkogo needs further information and confirmation. URGENT VERIFICATION of ALL CLAIMS is PARAMOUNT.
KURSK REGION: SUDZHA - FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
- Два майора (11:14 UTC) and Военкор Котенок (11:39 UTC): Reports that RUSSIAN FORCES have LIBERATED MAKNOVKA and ZAMOSTYE near SUDZHA. Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES are RETREATING to the BORDER, ABANDONING WOUNDED.
  - Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES the RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the SUDZHA AREA. The CLAIMED LIBERATION of TWO ADDITIONAL SETTLEMENTS indicates a WIDENING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. The REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES ABANDONING WOUNDED are CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS of HEAVY CASUALTIES and DISORGANIZED RETREAT. URGENT VERIFICATION is NEEDED.
UKRAINIAN PERSPECTIVE ON NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (11:39 UTC): Citing Bloomberg, reports that PUTIN is INTENTIONALLY MAKING UNACCEPTABLE DEMANDS for the UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS, questioning his SERIOUSNESS about PEACE. Claims PUTIN is NOT WILLING TO COMPROMISE on TERRITORIAL CLAIMS, PEACEKEEPERS, or UKRAINE'S NEUTRALITY.
  - Assessment: This REFLECTS UKRAINE'S POSITION that RUSSIA is NOT NEGOTIATING IN GOOD FAITH. The REJECTION OF PUTIN'S DEMANDS as "MAXIMALIST" highlights the WIDE GAP between the TWO SIDES and the CHALLENGES facing NEGOTIATIONS. This SUPPORTS the RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS of a PRE-PLANNED UKRAINIAN ATTACK as a means to STRENGTHEN UKRAINE'S NEGOTIATING POSITION.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
- WarGonzo (11:32 UTC): Reports on a video of Russian troops inspecting captured equipment in Malaya Loknya. (Confirms previous reports)
- Дневник Десантника (11:41 UTC): Describes features and capabilities of the 2S42 "Lotos" self-propelled howitzer. (No immediate tactical significance)
- Военкор Котенок (11:16 UTC): The Russian MoD claims to have liberated 12 settlements. Claims 270 troops were killed, and two tanks, four IFVs, three APCs, eight armored vehicles, twenty cars, two Paladin self-propelled guns, one field artillery gun, one Buk-M1, and two ammunition depots were destroyed. 12 surrendered.
  - Assessment: The list of destroyed material is extremely exaggerated.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS A MASSIVE, PRE-PLANNED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, including an ATTEMPT TO TARGET the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. This is a MAJOR ESCALATION in the INFORMATION WAR and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
- CONTINUED RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA, with CLAIMED LIBERATION of ADDITIONAL SETTLEMENTS and REPORTS of UKRAINIAN FORCES RETREATING and ABANDONING WOUNDED.
- CONFLICTING NARRATIVES SURROUNDING UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS. RUSSIA claims UKRAINE is ESCALATING to STRENGTHEN ITS NEGOTIATING POSITION, while UKRAINE claims RUSSIA is MAKING UNACCEPTABLE DEMANDS and NOT NEGOTIATING IN GOOD FAITH.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- ALL PREVIOUS HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- ALL PREVIOUS MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
- All PREVIOUS LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- URGENTLY VERIFY the RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS of a MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly the ALLEGED ATTEMPT to TARGET the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
  - DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, including SATELLITE IMAGERY, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, and OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE, to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMS.
  - COORDINATE WITH INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS to SHARE INFORMATION and VERIFY FINDINGS.
  - PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION if the CLAIMS ARE VERIFIED.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ESCALATION in RUSSIAN RETALIATION.
- URGENTLY DETERMINE the ORIGIN of the ALLEGED DRONES and IDENTIFY THE RESPONSIBLE UNITS.
ADDRESS THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, with INCREASED URGENCY.
- URGENTLY CONFIRM the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of LIBERATING ADDITIONAL SETTLEMENTS near SUDZHA.
- REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS where FEASIBLE, prioritizing the DEFENSE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL WITHDRAWALS from UNSUSTAINABLE POSITIONS, prioritizing the SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
- DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES towards OTHER MAJOR SETTLEMENTS in the REGION.
PREPARE FOR NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
- REINFORCE UKRAINE'S NEGOTIATING POSITION by HIGHLIGHTING RUSSIAN AGGRESSION and VIOLATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGNS aimed at UNDERMINING UKRAINE'S POSITION.
- COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS to MAINTAIN A UNITED FRONT and RESIST UNACCEPTABLE RUSSIAN DEMANDS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with RAPID DEVELOPMENTS on BOTH THE MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC FRONTS. The RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS of a MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly the ALLEGED ATTEMPT to TARGET the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT, represent a MAJOR ESCALATION and REQUIRE IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION and the CONFLICTING NARRATIVES SURROUNDING UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS further COMPLICATE THE SITUATION.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.999999
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.7
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled
Russian forces continue to advance rapidly within Sudzha, with claims of control over a majority of the town and movement towards the central market.: 0.9999999999
The 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade is confirmed to be leading the offensive.: 0.9999999
Video evidence substantiates the extraordinary Russian tactic of using a gas pipeline for large-scale infiltration into Ukrainian rear areas near Sudzha.: 0.99999
This represents a major intelligence failure for Ukraine and a significant tactical success for Russia.: 0.99999
Continued and widespread Russian air activity, with threats of airstrikes, drone attacks, and guided aerial bomb launches across multiple regions.: 0.99
Reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Pokrovsk, with claims of combined fire from artillery and drones.: 0.97
Reports of increasing casualties on both sides in the Kursk region, including captured Ukrainian POWs and an alleged execution of a Russian soldier by a comrade.: 0.98
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.72
The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.48
The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
The US continues to provide intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.85
Russian Forces advanced to the center of Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, capturing half of the village: 0.9.
Ukrainian forces claimed successful counterattacks.: 0.1
Intense fighting in Sudzha confirmed, ongoing strikes and civilian impact a major concern.: 0.8.
Ukrainian forces gained advantage in several areas, repulsing Russian attacks and conducting counterattacks.: 0.3
Russian forces claim destruction of a Ukrainian drone operator with FAB-3000.: 0.5
4 injured in an attack on a shopping mall in Kursk.: 0.6
A former head of the Sretensky district of Transbaikalia, Alexey Zakurdaev, went to war for the purchase of an apartment, and is now back to participate in a regional program.: 0.4
Russian troops advancing in Sudzha.: 0.88
Fighting is ongoing in 1st Knyazhy and 2nd Knyazhy.: 0.8
Russian forces are advancing towards the market.: 0.8
Sudzha is 40% cleared.: 0.9
Ukrainian forces captured near Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.: 0.7
Liberation of Sudzha is proceeding.: 0.85
Russian artillery, drones, and aircraft are targeting Ukrainian positions.: 0.75
Surviving Ukrainian troops will face judgment.: 0.2
Russian soldier executing a wounded comrade.: 0.2
Russian forces have liberated a large number of settlements in the Kursk region: 0.87
Russian air force is active in the Northeastern region.: 0.75
There is a drone attack in the Zaporizhia region.: 0.8
There is a threat of guided bombs in the Sumy and Donetsk region.: 0.75
Russian tactical aviation is active.: 0.7
Trump will not resume military aid to Ukraine without Zelensky's dismissal.: 0.3
Baku refused to extradite a former judge to Russia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.98
Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian forces, in a pre-planned attack prior to US-Ukraine negotiations, launched a massive drone attack against Russian civilian infrastructure.: 0.9
Claims 343 Ukrainian drones were destroyed, including six near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.: 0.18
Claims civilian casualties resulted from falling debris.: 0.98
Russian forces have liberated Maknovka and Zamostye near Sudzha.: 0.89
Ukrainian forces are retreating to the border, abandoning wounded.: 0.8
Putin is intentionally making unacceptable demands for the upcoming negotiations, questioning his seriousness about peace.: 0.8
Putin is not willing to compromise on territorial claims, peacekeepers, or Ukraine's neutrality.: 0.7
Russian MoD claims to have liberated 12 settlements. Claims 270 troops were killed, and two tanks, four IFVs, three APCs, eight armored vehicles, twenty cars, two Paladin self-propelled guns, one field artillery gun, one Buk-M1, and two ammunition depots were destroyed. 12 surrendered.: 0.2

Updated calculation method example:

Russian forces captured Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89

Calculation (0.999999, 0.89) Belief: 0.999999999999999999999999999

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 11:42 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:12 UTC - 11:42 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations