Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 17:30 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (17:01 UTC - 17:30 UTC)
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (MOD) CLAIMS CAPTURE OF THREE SETTLEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (17:09 UTC, 17:18 UTC), ТАСС (17:09 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:18 UTC), Colonelcassad (17:15 UTC): Officially claims the LIBERATION of MALAYA LOKNYA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, and KOSITSA in KURSK OBLAST by units of the "Sever" (North) Group of Forces. Claims continued operations to neutralize Ukrainian formations in the region.
Assessment: This OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION from the RUSSIAN MOD significantly INCREASES THE BELIEF in RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION. This corroborates prior reports and further strengthens the assessment of a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE and a POTENTIAL COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. The claimed LIBERATION of THREE SETTLEMENTS is a MAJOR SETBACK for UKRAINE.
Два майора (17:06 UTC): Reports on fighting in the Kursk region, claiming Russian forces are breaking through Ukrainian defenses. Claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing to the center of the salient. Reports strikes on Ukrainian personnel and shelters in Bogdanovka. Claims Kubatkin has been captured. Сливочный каприз (16:54 UTC) claims Russian forces are in the center of Martynovka and have control of the settlement, providing coordinates (51.245438, 35.365564). Colonelcassad (16:56 UTC) claims Martynovka has been captured, and that the entire northern part of the Kursk salient has collapsed in less than two days.
Z комитет + карта СВО (17:03 UTC): Claims Russian forces have liberated Martynovka, Pravda, and Mikhailovka. States that soldiers from the 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" regiment raised the Russian flag over the administration building. Shows video.
Военкор Котенок (16:54) reports that Ukrainian forces have liberated Makhnovka and Mikhailov, and that it continues its advances towards Sudzha, with fighting in the northeast and east.
* Assessment: These reports, combined with the MoD announcement, overwhelmingly suggest a RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE. The CLAIMED CAPTURE OF KUBATKIN, and the REPORTED WITHDRAWAL OF UKRAINIAN FORCES indicate a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINE. URGENT VERIFICATION of KUBATKIN'S STATUS is CRITICAL. The reports of the fighting suggest heavy engagement. The CLAIMED CAPTURE OF MARTYNOVKAINCREASES THE BELIEF OF A COLLAPSING UKRAINIAN DEFENSE in KURSK OBLAST.
DRONE THREAT TO DNIPRO (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:21 UTC): Issues a warning for DNIPRO due to an ENEMY UAV THREAT. Urges citizens to remain in shelters.
Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of DRONE ATTACK in DNIPRO. This follows the earlier air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY.
Alex Parker Returns (17:01 UTC): Claims Secretary of State Rubio stated the US will not turn off Starlink for Ukraine and that Ukraine should be grateful because Russia would be on the Polish border without it. Elon Musk reportedly confirmed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:01 UTC): Reports on the Hawk air defense system operator thanking the American people for their support. STERNENKO (17:08 UTC), РБК-Україна (17:20 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (17:15 UTC): Shows and quotes Elon Musk's tweet stating that Starlink will never turn off its terminals in Ukraine, despite disagreements with Ukrainian policy. Claims that without Starlink, the Ukrainian front line would have collapsed.
Assessment: These multiple reports strongly indicate that, DESPITE PREVIOUS CONCERNS AND DISPUTES, STARLINK ACCESS FOR UKRAINE WILL CONTINUE. MUSK'S STATEMENT is UNEQUIVOCAL. This MITIGATES THE IMMEDIATE THREAT of COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTION, but the UNDERLYING VULNERABILITY of RELIANCE ON A SINGLE, PRIVATE PROVIDER remains.
OTHER REPORTS (MEDIUM/LOW PRIORITY):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (17:13 UTC): Reports Russian artillery and UAV operators targeting a Ukrainian combat group, vehicles, and mortar positions in the Lipetsky and Volchansky areas of the Kharkiv region. Claims Russian forces advanced 100 meters during a clearing operation on the banks of the Volchya River.
Assessment: Claims of a small advance and Ukrainian casualties require VERIFICATION. This information is TACTICALLY RELEVANT but does NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER the OVERALL STRATEGIC SITUATION.
Оперативний ЗСУ (17:00 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 700 enemy targets in the past week, including 25 X-101, 8 Kalibr, 1 Iskander-K, 1 X-59, 520 Shahed, 39 surveillance, and 106 other drones. Ukrainian tactical aviation performed more than 120 sorties, with 44 strike, 80 support, and 21 reconnaissance missions.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM that REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:00 UTC): Trump claims that Ukraine might not survive in any case.
Assessment: This report is concerning.
Fighterbomber (17:18 UTC): States that everyone will have to work hard today.
* Assessment: Indicates a planned operation, but needs independent confirmation on the target and type of operation.
Олексій Білошицький, Патрульна поліція України (17:22 UTC): Reports on a policewoman, Yana Dudkina, who works for the TOR patrol police in Kharkiv Oblast.
Assessment: Unrelated to the overall military situation.
РБК-Україна (17:26 UTC): Trump claims that nobody was tougher on Russia than him.
Assessment: Claim by a third party source.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN MOD OFFICIALLY CLAIMS CAPTURE of MALAYA LOKNYA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, and KOSITSA in KURSK OBLAST. This CONFIRMS A MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a POTENTIAL COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported near SUDZHA, with CLAIMS OF CAPTURING MULTIPLE SETTLEMENTS, including MARTYNOVKA and KUBATKIN. POTENTIAL COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.
RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY CONTROLLING ACCESS TO SUDZHA, significantly INCREASING THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT for UKRAINIAN FORCES.
DRONE THREAT to DNIPRO. This follows an earlier alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED EXTREME-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
HIGH PRIORITY:
ELON MUSK CONFIRMS STARLINK ACCESS WILL CONTINUE FOR UKRAINE, mitigating the immediate threat of communications disruption. However, the underlying vulnerability of reliance on a single provider remains.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CLAIMED HIGH NUMBER OF UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE INTERCEPTIONS over the past week (REQUIRES VERIFICATION).
REPORTED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in the KHARKIV REGION (requires verification).
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
URGENTLY CONFIRM the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and CONTROL OF ACCESS ROUTES TO SUDZHA.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to ASSESS THE SITUATION and DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
IF RUSSIAN ADVANCES ARE CONFIRMED, IMMEDIATELY IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL of UKRAINIAN FORCES from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS. PRIORITIZE THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in AREAS at RISK OF FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS.
LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS where FEASIBLE to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and REGAIN LOST TERRITORY.
ADDRESS THE DRONE THREAT TO DNIPRO (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
PLACE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in DNIPRO on HIGH ALERT.
DEPLOY ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS.
While IMMEDIATE ACCESS is ASSURED, CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL FUTURE DISRUPTIONS.
DIVERSIFY COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS to REDUCE RELIANCE on STARLINK.
MAINTAIN COMMUNICATION with SPACEX/STARLINK to ENSURE CONTINUED SERVICE.
VERIFY UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED NUMBER OF UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE INTERCEPTIONS over the past week.
IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES and POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES OF RUSSIAN AIR ASSETS.
INVESTIGATE REPORTED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN KHARKIV REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES in the LIPETSKY and VOLCHANSKY AREAS.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on the FRONT LINE and IDENTIFY VULNERABILITIES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA, and the ONGOING DRONE THREATS pose MAJOR CHALLENGES to UKRAINIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THESE RISKS. The SPEED AND SCALE of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST are PARTICULARLY CONCERNING and require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Current Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9998
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.7
The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
The US has partially ceased supporting Ukrainian F-16s, but only for the radar jamming systems.: 0.85
Russian forces claim they captured Lebedevka: 0.7
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation.: 0.7
Russian drone strike killed 2 and injured 1: 0.9
Russian forces claim advances in Kursk Oblast: 0.8
Russian forces have practically encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.: 0.5
A Russian "Tor" was destroyed: 0.42
9 vehicles were destroyed in Sudzha.: 0.7
A drone struck a house in Bilenke, injuring a young man.: 0.8
Building damaged by shelling/airstrike.: 0.48
Image is being used for propaganda purposes.: 0.12
The area requires humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation.: 0.12
Building damaged due to non-military cause (e.g., earthquake, structural failure).: 0.08
China, Russia and Iran are holding a joint naval exercise.: 0.6
Ukrainian drones have been destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.5
Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk.: 0.6
A high-speed target is heading towards Poltava.: 0.35
Russian forces advanced near Pyatikhatki and Shcherbaki: 0.4
Ukrainian forces are resisting, using artillery and drones: 0.5
Russian air force and "Grad" rocket systems are targeting Ukrainian forward positions: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are actively using drones, including kamikaze drones and Baba Yaga drones: 0.7
Russian forces are successfully identifying and targeting Ukrainian drone launch sites: 0.6
There is evidence of nationalist and aggressive ideology within Ukrainian forces: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are taking heavy losses, with some personnel choosing to end their lives rather than surrender: 0.7
Russia preparing for a large-scale missile strike.: 0.6
Russian reconnaissance is taking place in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Ternopil Oblasts.: 0.6
Russian forces captured Kubatkino.: 0.7
Group Aida SpN 'Akhmat' jointly with 30 MSP liberated Kubatkino using an underground maneuver.: 0.8
Ballistic threat reduced, but air threat still present: 0.65
Ukrainian drone shoots down Russian drones.: 0.7
Russian forces still in the Kursk region.: 0.7
US technical support for Ukrainian F-16 fighters has officially stopped.: 0.9
Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian communication nodes.: 0.8
Russian forces are clearing Martynovka: 0.85
Russian forces have fully captured Mala Ohna.: 0.95
The telecommunications tower will be used to improve Russian communications and disrupt Ukrainian communications.: 0.78
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and destroyed a Russian TOS system in Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.85
The video of the TOS destruction is part of a Ukrainian psychological operation to demoralize Russian forces and boost Ukrainian morale.: 0.65
The strike on the market in Kherson Oblast resulted in civilian casualties.: 0.8
France will accelerate arms supplies to Ukraine: 0.8
Poland plans to increase the size of their army, to 500 thousand people.: 0.8
The 80th Brigade is engaged in cross-border operations in the Kursk region.: 0.32
CONFIRMED MASSIVE ESCALATION in RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS across UKRAINE, with APPROXIMATELY 1200 GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, nearly 870 ATTACK DRONES, and over 80 MISSILES used THIS WEEK. This represents a MAJOR SHIFT in RUSSIAN STRATEGY. : 0.99
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF MALAYA LOKNYA, with GEOLOCATED EVIDENCE and MULTIPLE REPORTS confirming the ADVANCE. This represents a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION. : 0.99
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CAPTURE OF MULTIPLE OTHER SETTLEMENTS in the KURSK REGION, including MARTYNOVKA, *
