Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 17:00 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (16:31 UTC - 17:00 UTC)
ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST AIR RAID ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (16:42 UTC, 16:57 UTC): Announces an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to UAV activity. Warns of possible air defense activity. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (16:47 UTC) Confirmed an air raid alert.
Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of DRONE ATTACK in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. The warning of POSSIBLE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY suggests that UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE PREPARED TO INTERCEPT.
KURSK OBLAST: RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF FURTHER ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Два майора (16:32 UTC): Claims Russian forces liberated Martynovka, with the surrounded Ukrainian garrison attempting to break out unsuccessfully.
Colonelcassad (16:39 UTC): Claims Martynovka is captured. States that the entire northern part of the Kursk salient has collapsed in less than two days. Claims the liberation of Kozachya Loknya and Sudzha is ahead.
Сливочный каприз (16:54 UTC): Claims Russian forces are demonstrating flags in the center of Martynovka, confirming control of the settlement. Provides coordinates: 51.245438, 35.365564.
Рыбарь (16:44 UTC): Claims it's time to recolor Martynovka on the map, providing coordinates 51.24547009, 35.36563396. Военкор Котенок (16:54) reports that Ukrainian forces have liberated Makhnovka and Mikhailov, and that it continues its advances towards Sudzha, with fighting in the northeast and east.
Дневник Десантника (16:42 UTC): Claims that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Senator" armored vehicle and eliminated elements of the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade near Sudzha using a "Forpost" drone.
* Assessment: These reports, if confirmed, suggest a RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST, exceeding even previous assessments. The CLAIMED CAPTURE OF MARTYNOVKA, and the subsequent reports, if true, indicate a NEAR-TOTAL COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the NORTHERN PART OF THE KURSK REGION. The REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL further REINFORCES THIS ASSESSMENT. The SPEED OF THE ADVANCE, if accurate, is ASTONISHING. The claims of DESTROYING A "SENATOR" ARMORED VEHICLE and ELIMINATING ELEMENTS OF THE 82ND AIRBORNE ASSAULT BRIGADE require VERIFICATION.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:36 UTC) quoting Ukrainian soldier Oleg Chaus: Claims that the 5km road to Sudzha is under complete control of Russian drones, disrupting Ukrainian logistics. Reports high density of drone activity.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES the THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT for UKRAINIAN FORCES IN SUDZHA. If RUSSIAN FORCES CONTROL ALL ACCESS ROUTES, the SITUATION FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES IS DIRE.
KURSK OBLAST: RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY CAPTURE AN ABRAMS TANK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (16:39 UTC): An additional Abrams tank was reported to be seized and taken away.
Assessment: If confirmed, this would be a major setback.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:45 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian artillery is noticeably less active, only drones. Russian forces are destroying temporary Ukrainian deployment points with artillery. Reports that the Ukrainian 82nd Airborne Brigade has withdrawn for recovery after suffering heavy losses and that the 61st Mechanized Brigade is hiding and being "burned out."
Assessment: Claims regarding enemy losses and the specific activities of Ukrainian units require VERIFICATION.
OTHER REPORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
РБК-Україна (16:57 UTC): Reports Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 700 enemy targets in the past week, including over 120 sorties.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM that REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If true, it would indicate a HIGH LEVEL OF UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE EFFECTIVENESS.
Alex Parker Returns (16:34): Confirms the report that Elon Musk dismissed Poland's financial contribution to Ukraine, stating there's no replacement for Starlink.
Assessment: This REINFORCES THE REPORT OF A MAJOR DISPUTE and HEIGHTENS CONCERNS about STARLINK ACCESS.
MoD Russia (16:44 UTC): Claims to have engaged an AFU convoy fleeing Sudzha with Rubikon operators.
Assessment: Claims to have engaged, but no confirmation on the damage of the engagement.
Z комитет + карта СВО (16:38 UTC): Reports Russian advances near Novoandreyevka, Andreyevka, and Zaporozhye.
Assessment: Needs independent confirmation.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION, with CLAIMS OF CAPTURING MULTIPLE SETTLEMENTS, including MARTYNOVKA. POTENTIAL COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.
RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY CONTROLLING ACCESS TO SUDZHA, significantly INCREASING THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT for UKRAINIAN FORCES.
MAJOR DISPUTE OVER STARLINK ACCESS for UKRAINE continues, with ELON MUSK DISMISSING POLISH CONCERNS. This HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINE'S VULNERABILITY and the NEED FOR CONTINGENCY PLANS.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED EXTREME-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
HIGH PRIORITY:
AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, with CONFIRMED THREAT of DRONE ATTACKS.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CLAIMED HIGH NUMBER OF UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE INTERCEPTIONS over the past week (REQUIRES VERIFICATION).
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
URGENTLY CONFIRM the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and CONTROL OF ACCESS ROUTES TO SUDZHA.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to ASSESS THE SITUATION and DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
IF RUSSIAN ADVANCES ARE CONFIRMED, IMMEDIATELY IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL of UKRAINIAN FORCES from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS. PRIORITIZE THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in AREAS at RISK OF FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS.
LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS where FEASIBLE to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and REGAIN LOST TERRITORY.
ADDRESS THE STARLINK CONTROVERSY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
ADDRESS THE AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
DEPLOY ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ATTACKS on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY FACILITIES.
VERIFY UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED NUMBER OF UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE INTERCEPTIONS over the past week.
IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES and POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES OF RUSSIAN AIR ASSETS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The REPORTED RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA, and the ONGOING DISPUTE OVER STARLINK ACCESS pose MAJOR THREATS to UKRAINIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THESE RISKS and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES. The SPEED OF THE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING, suggesting a POTENTIAL COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION and RAPID RESPONSE are PARAMOUNT.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Current Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9998
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.7
The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
The US has partially ceased supporting Ukrainian F-16s, but only for the radar jamming systems.: 0.85
Russian forces claim they captured Lebedevka: 0.7
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation.: 0.7
Russian drone strike killed 2 and injured 1: 0.9
Russian forces claim advances in Kursk Oblast: 0.8
Russian forces have practically encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.: 0.5
A Russian "Tor" was destroyed: 0.42
9 vehicles were destroyed in Sudzha.: 0.7
A drone struck a house in Bilenke, injuring a young man.: 0.8
Building damaged by shelling/airstrike.: 0.48
Image is being used for propaganda purposes.: 0.12
The area requires humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation.: 0.12
Building damaged due to non-military cause (e.g., earthquake, structural failure).: 0.08
China, Russia and Iran are holding a joint naval exercise.: 0.6
Ukrainian drones have been destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.5
Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk.: 0.6
A high-speed target is heading towards Poltava.: 0.35
Russian forces advanced near Pyatikhatki and Shcherbaki: 0.4
Ukrainian forces are resisting, using artillery and drones: 0.5
Russian air force and "Grad" rocket systems are targeting Ukrainian forward positions: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are actively using drones, including kamikaze drones and Baba Yaga drones: 0.7
Russian forces are successfully identifying and targeting Ukrainian drone launch sites: 0.6
There is evidence of nationalist and aggressive ideology within Ukrainian forces: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are taking heavy losses, with some personnel choosing to end their lives rather than surrender: 0.7
Russia preparing for a large-scale missile strike.: 0.6
Russian reconnaissance is taking place in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Ternopil Oblasts.: 0.6
Russian forces captured Kubatkino.: 0.7
Group Aida SpN 'Akhmat' jointly with 30 MSP liberated Kubatkino using an underground maneuver.: 0.8
Ballistic threat reduced, but air threat still present: 0.65
Ukrainian drone shoots down Russian drones.: 0.7
Russian forces still in the Kursk region.: 0.7
US technical support for Ukrainian F-16 fighters has officially stopped.: 0.9
Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian communication nodes.: 0.8
Russian forces are clearing Martynovka: 0.85
Russian forces have fully captured Mala Ohna.: 0.95
The telecommunications tower will be used to improve Russian communications and disrupt Ukrainian communications.: 0.78
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and destroyed a Russian TOS system in Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.85
The video of the TOS destruction is part of a Ukrainian psychological operation to demoralize Russian forces and boost Ukrainian morale.: 0.65
The strike on the market in Kherson Oblast resulted in civilian casualties.: 0.8
France will accelerate arms supplies to Ukraine: 0.8
Poland plans to increase the size of their army, to 500 thousand people.: 0.8
The 80th Brigade is engaged in cross-border operations in the Kursk region.: 0.32
CONFIRMED MASSIVE ESCALATION in RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS across UKRAINE, with APPROXIMATELY 1200 GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, nearly 870 ATTACK DRONES, and over 80 MISSILES used THIS WEEK. This represents a MAJOR SHIFT in RUSSIAN STRATEGY. : 0.99
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF MALAYA LOKNYA, with GEOLOCATED EVIDENCE and MULTIPLE REPORTS confirming the ADVANCE. This represents a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION. : 0.99
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CAPTURE OF MULTIPLE OTHER SETTLEMENTS in the KURSK REGION, including MARTYNOVKA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, and the HAMLETS OF KOSITSA AND PRAVDA. These claims, if confirmed, represent a RAPID COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the AREA. RUSSIAN FORCES additionally CLAIM CAPTURE of LOKNYA and KUBATKI. : 0.97
POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA, as claimed by Russian sources, poses an IMMINENT THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in the REGION. : 0.92
AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, with CONFIRMED THREAT of AIR ATTACKS due to ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY. CONFIRMED enemy use of guided aerial bombs (KAB) and drones. : 0.95
REPORTED HIMARS STRIKE on a MARKET in KHERSON OBLAST, with POTENTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. URGENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL. : 0.83
RUSSIAN FORCES claim they have RETURNED to a FORMER POSITION described as a "women's colony," referencing combat last August. : 0.9
RUSSIAN FORCES claim the CAPTURE of an ABRAMS TANK. : 0.82
Starlink is critical for military communication and operations.: 0.74
Poland is threatening to end the contract to supply Ukraine with Starlink: 0.62
There is a dispute between Polish officials and Elon Musk/US officials about Starlink in Ukraine.: 0.8
Russia reports fighting in Sudzha.: 0.76
Russia claims to have captured Mirny.: 0.83
Russian "Rubicon" center operators struck retreating Ukrainian columns near Sudzha.: 0.54
Russia claims liberation of "Pravda" by Akhmat units.: 0.68
Russian forces captured an Abrams tank in Kursk: 0.46
