Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 12:30 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (12:01 UTC - 12:30 UTC)
CONFIRMATION OF US NOT RESUMING AID AFTER MINERAL DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:01 UTC): States that the US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal, reinforcing previous reports. Expresses clear skepticism ("Who would have doubted it?").
Assessment: This FURTHER SOLIDIFIES the POSITION that the US IS USING AID AS LEVERAGE to FORCE UKRAINE INTO CONCESSIONS. The UKRAINIAN SOURCE'S CYNICAL TONE reflects GROWING DISTRUST AND FRUSTRATION with the US POSITION.
RUSSIAN FORCES LIBERATED BUILDINGS IN NIKOLAEVKA AND STARAYA SOROCHINA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (12:02 UTC) reports that the Russian Armed Forces liberated houses of peaceful residents in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries equipped their firing positions.
Assessment: This reinforces previous reports of Russian Advances in the region.
REPORTS OF TRUMP WANTING ZELENSKY TO MAKE TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS AND STEP DOWN (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ТАСС (12:09 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:26 UTC), citing NBC, reiterate that a minerals deal will not be enough for the US to resume military aid and intelligence sharing. They report that Zelenskyy must change his attitude towards peace negotiations and be ready to make concessions, including territorial ones.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the NARRATIVE of INCREASING US PRESSURE ON UKRAINE to ACCEPT A DEAL ON RUSSIA'S TERMS. The SPECIFIC DEMAND FOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS is EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT and POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING for UKRAINE'S FUTURE. This INDICATES A MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY towards PRIORITIZING A QUICK END TO THE CONFLICT, even at the EXPENSE OF UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY.
REPORTED CESSATION OF US TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINIAN F-16S (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (12:10 UTC): Reports that the US has stopped technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine.
Assessment: This CONTRADICTS previous reports of targeting jamming systems. HOWEVER, combined with the earlier reports, it suggests that the reports are valid. This FURTHER ERODES the US-UKRAINE RELATIONSHIP and UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. URGENT VERIFICATION IS NEEDED.
RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES ON SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:17 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in the SUMY REGION. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in this area.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN PANTSIR-S1 (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (12:19 UTC): Shares footage claiming to show the destruction of a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system.
Assessment:IF CONFIRMED, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DESTROYING A VALUABLE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ASSET. HOWEVER, the FOOTAGE IS UNCLEAR and REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
REPORTED DISCOVERY OF SECRET CIA BASE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (12:21 UTC): Reports The Telegraph found a secret CIA base in a list of government buildings for sale.
Assessment: Unlikely to have any strategic implications.
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KONSTANTINOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (12:22 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN LOSSES in KONSTANTINOPOL. The SPECIFIC NUMBER (50+) SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION, but the GENERAL TREND is CONSISTENT WITH OTHER REPORTS. FURTHER VIDEOS from COLONELCASSAD (12:28 UTC) show RUSSIAN FLAGS in the DESTROYED VILLAGE, FURTHER SUPPORTING the CLAIM OF RUSSIAN CONTROL.
REPORTED MILITARIZATION OF YOUTH IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (12:25 UTC): Reports on the militarization of youth in occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including mandatory participation in "Yunarmiya" (a Russian youth military organization).
Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIAN EFFORTS to INDOCTRINATE AND POTENTIALLY RECRUIT young people in OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. This is a LONG-TERM CONCERN with POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for the FUTURE OF THE REGION.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED US POSITION that a MINERALS DEAL WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT to RESUME MILITARY AID to UKRAINE.
REPORTED US DEMAND for UKRAINE to MAKE TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS and for ZELENSKY TO POTENTIALLY STEP DOWN. This represents a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL of KONSTANTINOPOL in DONETSK OBLAST, representing a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE REPORTS of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, HEAVY FIGHTING, and SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. The SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with REPORTS OF THE FRONT COLLAPSING and HINDERED RETREAT ROUTES.
AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (NOW OVER), with THREAT OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.
HIGH PRIORITY:
REPORTED CESSATION of US TECHNICAL SUPPORT for UKRAINIAN F-16S. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES on SUMY OBLAST.
Attack in Petropavlovka.
EXPANDED ENEMY DRONE ALERT, now including SUMY, CHERNIHIV, KHARKIV, and ODESSA OBLASTS, indicating WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY.
ENEMY DRONE ALERT in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
RUSSIAN MoD SUMMARY claims SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES and LIBERATION OF LEBEDEVKA AND NOVENKOYE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
REPORTED PROBLEMS with SAMP/T AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM, potentially WEAKENING UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
RUSSIAN CLAIM of DESTROYING UKRAINIAN FORCES near MARTYNOVKA, with POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
MISSILE ALERT in ODESSA OBLAST.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
REPORTED DESTRUCTION of RUSSIAN PANTSIR-S1.
REPORTED MILITARIZATION of YOUTH in OCCUPIED ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near SEVERSK.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.
SYRSKYI DISCUSSES FRONT with EUROPEAN COMMAND, seeking CONTINUED MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
REPORTS OF POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS in CENTRAL ASIA.
REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORMS in the BLACK SEA.
Reports on Trump seeking minerals as partial payment.
CONFIRMED Ukrainian drone strike on Russian BTR-4.
CLARIFICATION that TRUMP'S ACTIONS are TARGETING F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS, not the AIRCRAFT THEMSELVES, but STILL REPRESENTING A DEGRADATION OF CAPABILITIES.
RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTSFOCUSING ON DRONE OPERATORS AND EW SPECIALISTS in KURSK REGION.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING claims.
HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION to STRONG EU SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE CONFIRMED US POSITION ON AID AND CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, BUT ARE NOW EVEN MORE CRITICAL.
Urgently seek clarification from US OFFICIALS regarding the SPECIFIC DEMANDS for TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS and ZELENSKY'S RESIGNATION.
Prepare a comprehensive strategy to COUNTER US PRESSURE, including:
Publicly and unequivocally rejecting territorial concessions.
Mobilizing international support from OTHER ALLIES (EU, UK, etc.).
Highlighting the dangers of appeasement and the LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES of REWARDING RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
Exploring alternative sources of military and financial aid.
Prepare for the possibility of a SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OR CESSATION OF US SUPPORT.
Develop contingency plan in case of major reduction of U.S. support.
URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED CESSATION OF US TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR F-16S (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Contact US military and intelligence officials to IMMEDIATELY VERIFY the REPORT.
Assess the immediate impact on UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
Develop contingency plans, including:
Seeking alternative sources of technical support from OTHER F-16 OPERATORS.
Adjusting operational plans to ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED F-16 AVAILABILITY.
RESPOND TO CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK AND DONETSK OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND ARE FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED.
Prioritize reinforcing defenses around SUDZHA and OTHER THREATENED AREAS in KURSK OBLAST.
Continue to monitor and RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES in DONETSK OBLAST, particularly around KONSTANTINOPOL.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):
Maintain high alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST after CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKES.
Continue public warnings and SAFETY ADVISORIES.
VERIFY REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN PANTSIR-S1 (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING):
Gather additional intelligence to CONFIRM THE DESTRUCTION of the PANTSIR-S1 SYSTEM.
Assess the impact on RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES in the AREA.
MONITOR AND COUNTER RUSSIAN MILITARIZATION OF YOUTH IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, LONG-TERM STRATEGY):
Document and exposeRUSSIAN EFFORTS to INDOCTRINATE AND RECRUIT young people in OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.
Support Ukrainian cultural and educational initiatives to COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA.
Prepare for long-term challenges in REINTEGRATING these TERRITORIES and COUNTERING RUSSIAN INFLUENCE.
ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DETERIORATING. The CONFIRMED US POSITION ON AID AND CONCESSIONS, combined with the REPORTED CESSATION OF TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR F-16S and CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, represents a MAJOR CRISIS for UKRAINE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE and PRESERVE UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY. The LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS of US POLICY SHIFTS are PROFOUND and REQUIRE CAREFUL CONSIDERATION.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.5
The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
