Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 12:00 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:30 UTC - 12:00 UTC)

HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION TO EU UKRAINE STATEMENT (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, HUNGARIAN SOURCE):
- TASS (11:30 UTC): Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states that an EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force because such documents require consensus.
- Assessment: This REINFORCES HUNGARY'S CONTINUED OPPOSITION to STRONG EU SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE. While NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING MILITARY OPERATIONS, it HIGHLIGHTS POLITICAL DIVISIONS within the EU that COULD AFFECT FUTURE AID AND POLICY DECISIONS.
CLARIFICATION ON F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:30 UTC), citing Forbes, clarifies that Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine, not the F-16s themselves. Claims these systems (AN/ALQ-131, PIDS+, ECIPS+) were installed before delivery to improve counter-Russian threat capabilities.
- Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY CLARIFIES PREVIOUS REPORTS about POTENTIAL US DISABLING OF UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT. The FOCUS ON JAMMING SYSTEMS, rather than the AIRCRAFT THEMSELVES, is LESS DRAMATIC, but STILL REPRESENTS A DEGRADATION OF CAPABILITIES. This UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN ABILITY to COUNTER RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES AND ELECTRONIC WARFARE.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF "PIPE" OPERATION AS HISTORIC (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Alex Parker Returns (11:31 UTC): Claims the "pipe" operation (referring to the alleged gas pipeline infiltration near Sudzha) is of historic significance, comparing it to the first human spaceflight.
- Assessment: This is CLEARLY HYPERBOLIC PROPAGANDA, intended to EXAGGERATE THE SIGNIFICANCE of the OPERATION and BOOST RUSSIAN MORALE. It SHOULD BE DISREGARDED as a RELIABLE ASSESSMENT of the MILITARY SITUATION.
RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Kotsnews (11:31 UTC): Advertises recruitment for drone pilots and "WiFi installers" (likely a euphemism for electronic warfare specialists) for operations in southern Kursk Oblast. Offers salaries, bonuses, housing, food, and other benefits.
- Assessment: This INDICATES ONGOING RUSSIAN EFFORTS to REPLENISH AND STRENGTHEN FORCES in the KURSK REGION. The FOCUS ON DRONE OPERATORS AND EW SPECIALISTS HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE of these CAPABILITIES in the CONFLICT.
FURTHER RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURING KONSTANTINOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
- Воин DV (11:33 UTC): Claims the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol are also under the control of the "Vostok" group.
- Сливочный каприз (11:48 UTC) Reports of the consequences of the fighting near Kurakhovo.
- Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and CONTROL over KONSTANTINOPOL. The MULTIPLE SOURCES reporting the SAME INFORMATION INCREASE CREDIBILITY.
RUSSIAN MoD SUMMARY OF KURSK REGION OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Colonelcassad (11:35 UTC): Presents a summary from the Russian Ministry of Defense, claiming significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, including the liberation of Lebedevka (Kursk Oblast) and Novenkoye (Sumy Oblast). Lists numerous destroyed Ukrainian units and equipment.
- Assessment: This REPORT SHOULD BE TREATED WITH CAUTION, as it is LIKELY TO BE EXAGGERATED FOR PROPAGANDA PURPOSES. HOWEVER, the GENERAL TRENDS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES in the KURSK REGION are CONSISTENT WITH OTHER REPORTS. The CLAIM OF LIBERATING LEBEDEVKA AND NOVENKOYE is SIGNIFICANT and REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR SEVERSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Военкор Котенок (11:37 UTC): Reports a Russian advance of over 1.5 km towards Seversk, with the front line now 7 km from the city. Claims the advance occurred along the heights north of Verkhnekamenskoye.
- Assessment: This SUGGESTS A NEW AXIS OF RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIVITY. While NOT AS IMMEDIATELY CRITICAL as the SUDZHA SITUATION, it REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING.
ADDITIONAL REPORTS ON TRUMP AND UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (11:29 UTC) and STERNENKO (11:40 UTC), citing NBC News, report that Trump is seeking more than just a minerals deal to resume aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Claims Trump wants Zelenskyy to make concessions, including territorial cessions to Russia, and potentially step down from the presidency.
- РБК-Україна (11:52 UTC) Reports the same news.
- Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES THE NARRATIVE of TRUMP USING AID AS LEVERAGE to PRESSURE UKRAINE into MAKING CONCESSIONS. The SPECIFIC DEMANDS, including TERRITORIAL CESSIONS and ZELENSKYY'S RESIGNATION, are EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT and COULD HAVE PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS for the FUTURE OF THE CONFLICT.
REPORTED PROBLEMS WITH SAMP/T AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (11:50 UTC), citing WSJ, reports serious problems with the SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine, including software malfunctions and depletion of Aster missiles, rendering it ineffective against ballistic missiles. Claims Patriot systems are more effective.
- Assessment: This SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS in UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES. If VERIFIED, it COULD HAVE SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS for PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND POPULATION CENTERS from RUSSIAN MISSILE ATTACKS.
AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:51 UTC): Announced an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Assessment: This INDICATES AN IMMINENT THREAT of AIR ATTACK, likely from DRONES or MISSILES. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION OF AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and PUBLIC WARNINGS.
THREAT OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:52 UTC): Warns of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction, with a threat of using aviation weapons.
- Assessment: This REINFORCES THE AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and EXPANDS THE AREA OF CONCERN. REQUIRES HEIGHTENED READINESS of AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and POTENTIAL PREPARATIONS for EVASIVE MANEUVERS by UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT.
VISA DENIES PAYMENT SYSTEM PROBLEMS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (11:58 UTC) and Українська правда (11:55 UTC): Visa states that there are no problems with the processing of payments on their side, in response to reports of disruptions in cashless payments.
- Assessment: This CONTRADICTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS to PAYMENT SYSTEMS. It SUGGESTS that any PROBLEMS may be LOCALIZED or RELATED TO OTHER FACTORS, rather than a SYSTEM-WIDE VISA ISSUE.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN FORCES NEAR MARTYNOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*   *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (11:58 UTC): Claims Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka, with Ukrainian troops attempting to flee encirclement. Lists various Russian units involved.

*   **Assessment:** This *REINFORCES THE NARRATIVE* of *RUSSIAN ADVANCES* and *UKRAINIAN RETREATS* in the *KURSK REGION*. The *CLAIM OF ENCIRCLEMENT* is *SIGNIFICANT* and *REQUIRES VERIFICATION*.

14. REPORT ON ANDREYEVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE)

 *  *Дневник Десантника🇷🇺* (11:59 UTC): Reports that only the outskirts are captured.
*   **Assessment:** This *INDICATES* *RUSSIAN FORCES* are *MOVING* on *ANDREYEVKA*.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL of KONSTANTINOPOL in DONETSK OBLAST, representing a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
- CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE REPORTS of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, HEAVY FIGHTING, and SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. The SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with REPORTS OF THE FRONT COLLAPSING and HINDERED RETREAT ROUTES.
- AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, with THREAT OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- Attack in Petropavlovka.
- EXPANDED ENEMY DRONE ALERT, now including SUMY, CHERNIHIV, KHARKIV, and ODESSA OBLASTS, indicating WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY.
- ENEMY DRONE ALERT in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
- RUSSIAN MoD SUMMARY claims SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES and LIBERATION OF LEBEDEVKA AND NOVENKOYE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
- REPORTED PROBLEMS with SAMP/T AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM, potentially WEAKENING UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
- RUSSIAN CLAIM of DESTROYING UKRAINIAN FORCES near MARTYNOVKA, with POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT.
- ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
- MISSILE ALERT in ODESSA OBLAST.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near SEVERSK.
- REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.
- SYRSKYI DISCUSSES FRONT with EUROPEAN COMMAND, seeking CONTINUED MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
- REPORTS OF POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS in CENTRAL ASIA.
- REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORMS in the BLACK SEA.
- Reports on Trump seeking minerals as partial payment.
- CONFIRMED Ukrainian drone strike on Russian BTR-4.
  - CLARIFICATION that TRUMP'S ACTIONS are TARGETING F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS, not the AIRCRAFT THEMSELVES, but STILL REPRESENTING A DEGRADATION OF CAPABILITIES.
- RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS FOCUSING ON DRONE OPERATORS AND EW SPECIALISTS in KURSK REGION.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING claims.
HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION to STRONG EU SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

RESPOND TO THE CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF KONSTANTINOPOL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
RESPOND TO THE CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND ARE FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED.
RESPOND TO THE EXPANDED ENEMY DRONE ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
PREPARE FOR IMMINENT MISSILE STRIKE IN ODESSA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MONITOR DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST FOR ENEMY DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):
- ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK IN THE BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):
- ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
RESPOND TO ATTACK IN PETROPAVLOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY):
- Gather intelligence to CONFIRM THE DETAILS of the ATTACK and DAMAGE.
ASSESS TRUMP'S NEGOTIATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Analyze and track Trump's comments to seek additional concessions and pressure for a peace agreement.
VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS REGARDING KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING):
- GATHER ADDITIONAL INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY the CLAIMS of LIBERATING LEBEDEVKA AND NOVENKOYE.
- ASSESS THE EXTENT of UKRAINIAN LOSSES in the KURSK REGION.
- DETERMINE THE TRUTH behind the CLAIM OF ENCIRCLEMENT near MARTYNOVKA.
ASSESS THE IMPACT OF REPORTED SAMP/T PROBLEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS):
- GATHER TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY THE REPORTS of SOFTWARE MALFUNCTIONS and MISSILE DEPLETION in the SAMP/T SYSTEM.
- ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
- DEVELOP MITIGATION STRATEGIES, including SEEKING ALTERNATIVE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS or REQUESTING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE from ALLIES.
RESPOND TO AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST AND THREAT OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- ACTIVATE ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and SURROUNDING AREAS.
- ISSUE PUBLIC WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to SEEK SHELTER.
- PREPARE EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS for POTENTIAL CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE.
- CONSIDER DEPLOYING ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to the REGION if AVAILABLE.
MONITOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR SEVERSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):
- INCREASE SURVEILLANCE of the AREA to TRACK RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS and ASSESS THE THREAT.
- DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS if RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE.
ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation continues to be EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF KONSTANTINOPOL and CONTINUED ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST, combined with the AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and THREAT OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION, represent SIGNIFICANT THREATS. The REPORTED PROBLEMS with the SAMP/T SYSTEM and TRUMP'S POTENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR AID add FURTHER COMPLEXITY and UNCERTAINTY.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Russian forces officially liberated Viktorovka.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces are fleeing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa.: 0.6
Poland announced military training for all men.: 0.3
Republicans are calling on Trump to restore aid to Ukraine.: 0.4
The main task of the Ukrainian army is to not lose what they currently hold.: 0.4
Russian forces liberated Staraya Sorochina yesterday.: 0.4
There is a threat of ballistic missile usage for Poltava.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 3km from Razdolnoye towards Bogatyr.:0.6
The attack in Dobropillia injured up to 47 people and killed 11.: 0.9
At least 20 civilians were killed in Russian attacks across Ukraine since the start of the day.: 0.8
Russian forces used a gas pipeline near Sudzha to launch a surprise attack.: 0.37
The pipeline attack was a disinformation campaign.: 0.4
Hungary opposes financing an increase to the Ukranian military and opposes Ukraine's rapid ascension to the EU.: 0.7
5 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.6
Russian forces are storming Malaya Loknya.: 0.6
One person was killed, and 5 were injured in Russian attacks in the Donetsk Region.: 0.7
A bridge was destroyed on the bypass of Sudzha, impacting logistics for the Ukrainian forces.: 0.91
Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk region.: 0.75
Russian forces captured Konstantinopol.: 0.995
Russian forces liberated Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.: 0.7
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 12:00 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:30 UTC - 12:00 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations