Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 11:00 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (10:30 UTC - 11:00 UTC)

1. ODESSA OBLAST: MISSILE ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:32 UTC): Announced a missile threat in Odesa Oblast.
   • Assessment: This indicates a HIGH PROBABILITY of an IMMINENT RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE targeting ODESSA OBLAST. This requires IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION of AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and CIVILIAN WARNING PROTOCOLS.

2. KURSK OBLAST: CONTINUED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, AND FIGHTING (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (10:33 UTC): Provides images showing soldiers. The channel asks for information.

   • Assessment: The information does not add any additional context.

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:38 UTC): Claims Russian forces liberated Kubatin near Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces fleeing the area. Reports ongoing attacks on retreating Ukrainian troops.

   • НгП раZVедка (10:39 UTC): Reports "disorderly retreat" of Ukrainian forces north of Sudzha, claiming the front has "collapsed." Asserts Ukrainian forces will soon abandon all territories north of Sudzha. Claims Russian aviation destroyed bridges and damaged roads near Knyazhye 1 and Knyazhye 2, hindering Ukrainian retreat.

   • Assessment: The information is consistent with the previous reports.

   • Два майора (10:46 UTC): Provides a detailed report on the situation in Kursk Oblast. Claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Malaya Loknya in small groups, facing attacks from Russian drones. Reports Ukrainian retreat from Martynovka with heavy losses. Claims ongoing clearing operations in Kositsa. Reports Russian advances in Ivashkovsky forest from multiple directions. Claims fighting east of Pravda near the Kolizey factory after the liberation of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Reports Russian advances near Sverdlikovo and the liberation of Lebedevka. Claims Russian forces have secured positions in the industrial zone of Sudzha, with another push from Martynovka. Reports Ukrainian forces remaining in Sudzha are preparing for defense. Claims Russian forces are pushing on Guevo.

   • Assessment: The information is consistent with the previous reports.

   • Assessment: These reports STRONGLY REINFORCE the picture of a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in KURSK OBLAST, with CONTINUED ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, and HEAVY FIGHTING. The CLAIM OF THE FRONT COLLAPSING and DESTROYED BRIDGES HINDERING RETREAT is EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT, suggesting a POTENTIAL ROUT of UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA. The DETAILED REPORTS of SPECIFIC LOCATIONS and UNIT MOVEMENTS provide ADDITIONAL TACTICAL INFORMATION. The CLAIM OF RUSSIAN FORCES SECURING POSITIONS in the INDUSTRIAL ZONE OF SUDZHA is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. The claim that the Ukrainian forces are being attacked from the air is a RECURRING EVENT.

3. DONETSK OBLAST: REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR SEVERSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

• Сливочный каприз (10:42) Claims Russian forces have advanced over 700 meters, north of Verkhnokamyanske in the direction of Seversk.
  • Assessment: The claim could be verified, and indicates a POTENTIAL NEW FRONT.

4. DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST: ENEMY DRONE ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:54 UTC): Announced the presence of enemy reconnaissance drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with air defense systems engaged.

• 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (10:54 UTC): Confirmed the information released by the Air Force. * Assessment: This indicates RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, potentially PREPARING FOR FUTURE STRIKES. This requires CONTINUED MONITORING and MAINTAINING HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS.

5. SYRSKYI DISCUSSES FRONT WITH EUROPEAN COMMAND (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (10:34 UTC): Reports Syrskyi discussed the front and army needs with military command from the UK, France, and Germany, amidst the US aid cutoff. Reports confirmation of continued European support, focusing on air defense, artillery shells, armored vehicles, and troop training.
   • Assessment: This highlights UKRAINE'S EFFORTS to SECURE CONTINUED MILITARY ASSISTANCE from EUROPEAN ALLIES in the ABSENCE OF US SUPPORT. The SPECIFIC MENTION of AIR DEFENSE, ARTILLERY SHELLS, and ARMORED VEHICLES indicates PRIORITY NEEDS.

6. PLANNED RUSSIAN-CHINESE-IRANIAN NAVAL EXERCISES (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (10:50) China, Russia and Iran will hold a joint military exercise in the first half of March, near the Iranian port of Chabahar.
   • Assessment: The exercise serves to solidify the alliance between the countries.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE REPORTS of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, HEAVY FIGHTING, and SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. The SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with REPORTS OF THE FRONT COLLAPSING and HINDERED RETREAT ROUTES.
  • MISSILE ALERT in ODESSA OBLAST.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL of KONSTANTINOPOL in DONETSK OBLAST.
  • ENEMY DRONE ALERT in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near SEVERSK.
  • SYRSKYI DISCUSSES FRONT with EUROPEAN COMMAND, seeking CONTINUED MILITARY ASSISTANCE.
  • REPORTS OF POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS in CENTRAL ASIA.
  • REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORMS in the BLACK SEA.
  • CONFIRMED Ukrainian drone strike on Russian BTR-4.
  • Air alerts, and reports of aviation activity.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • MINE INCIDENT in BELGOROD OBLAST.
  • RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING claims.

• PLANNED RUSSIAN-CHINESE-IRANIAN NAVAL EXERCISES.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO THE CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND ARE FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED. The CONTINUED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, HEAVY FIGHTING, and POTENTIAL ROUT require IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION.
   • IMMEDIATELY REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS AROUND SUDZHA, prioritizing the PREVENTION OF ENCIRCLEMENT and PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • URGENTLY ASSESS THE VIABILITY of HOLDING SUDZHA. Develop and be prepared to implement CONTINGENCY PLANS for a CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary, prioritizing the SAFETY OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and PREVENTING THE CAPTURE OF EQUIPMENT.
   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS, and ASSESS THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE TO BRIDGES AND ROADS.
   • EXPLORE OPTIONS for COUNTER-OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS to RELIEVE PRESSURE on SUDZHA, if FEASIBLE AND RESOURCES PERMIT. HOWEVER, prioritize DEFENSIVE MEASURES given the RAPIDITY OF THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
   • PRIORITIZE THE EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS from AREAS DIRECTLY THREATENED by the RUSSIAN ADVANCE, particularly SUDZHA and surrounding VILLAGES.
   • URGENTLY ASSESS THE IMPACT of REPORTED DAMAGE TO BRIDGES AND ROADS on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS AND RETREAT ROUTES. EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE ROUTES and CONSIDER RAPID REPAIR OPTIONS if FEASIBLE.

2. PREPARE FOR IMMINENT MISSILE STRIKE IN ODESSA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ACTIVATE ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ODESSA OBLAST.
   • ISSUE PUBLIC WARNINGS to CIVILIANS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • PREPARE EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS for POTENTIAL CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE.

3. MONITOR DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST FOR ENEMY DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for ENEMY DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • BE PREPARED TO ENGAGE any IDENTIFIED DRONES.
   • ASSESS POTENTIAL TARGETS based on DRONE FLIGHT PATHS.

4. ADDRESS ELON MUSK'S STARLINK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS A CRITICAL VULNERABILITY.

5. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES AND POWS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

6. RESPOND TO CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

7. ASSESS AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS NEAR POKROVSK AND TORETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • INCREASE SURVEILLANCE and RECONNAISSANCE in these areas to VERIFY UKRAINIAN ACTIVITY and ASSESS THEIR INTENTIONS.
   • BE PREPARED TO REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS if necessary.

8. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORT OF RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR SEVERSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Deploy reconnaissance units to assess the state of the battlefield.
   • Prepare a potential counterattack.

9. ASSESS AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACKS IN THE BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for NAVAL DEFENSE SYSTEMS and COASTAL SURVEILLANCE.
   • ASSESS THE EFFECTIVENESS of UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE TACTICS and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.

10. MONITOR AIR ACTIVITY NEAR KHARKIV AND ZAPORIZHZHIA:

    • Keep air defenses on high alert.
    • Monitor the region for possible attacks.

11. INVESTIGATE WESTERN INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, LONG-TERM ANALYSIS):

    • GATHER ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on REPORTED WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS in CENTRAL ASIA.
    • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIA'S ABILITY to CIRCUMVENT SANCTIONS.

The situation has CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE with the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST, with increasing indications of a potential ROUT OF UKRAINIAN FORCES in the area. The SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA is EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The MISSILE ALERT in ODESSA OBLAST indicates a HIGH PROBABILITY OF AN IMMINENT ATTACK. The STARLINK VULNERABILITY, and the POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS TO INFLUENCE LOGISTICS IN CENTRAL ASIA adds ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF COMPLEXITY to the SITUATION. The DEATH TOLL FROM THE KRYVYI RIH STRIKE CONTINUES TO RISE, highlighting the ONGOING HUMANITARIAN TRAGEDY.