Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 10:30 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (10:00 UTC - 10:30 UTC)
KRYVYI RIH: DEATH TOLL RISES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
馃嚭馃嚘小械褉谐褨泄 袥懈褋邪泻 / 袛薪褨锌褉芯锌械褌褉芯胁褋褜泻邪 袨袛袗 (袨袙袗) (10:01 UTC) and 袨谢械泻褋邪薪写褉 袙褨谢泻褍谢 (10:07 UTC), 袨锌械褉邪褌懈胁薪懈泄 袟小校 (10:07 UTC), 袪袘袣-校泻褉邪褩薪邪 (10:14 UTC): Report that a 53-year-old man injured in the March 5th missile strike on Kryvyi Rih has died in the hospital. This brings the total death toll from that attack to six.
Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the DEVASTATING IMPACT of the MARCH 5TH MISSILE STRIKE on KRYVYI RIH. The INCREASED DEATH TOLL highlights the SEVERITY OF THE ATTACK and the ONGOING HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES.
KURSK OBLAST: CONTINUED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
袗袪啸袗袧袚袝袥 小袩袝笑袧袗袟袗 (10:03 UTC): Provides a map and a detailed report of the situation in Kursk Oblast, claiming continued Russian advances and Ukrainian withdrawals. Claims the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (where the 3rd Airborne Battalion of the 80th Air Assault Brigade was located), Lebedevka, and Novenkoye. Reports Ukrainian forces fleeing from Mikhailovka and Martynovka towards Agronom and Mirny, and a retreat from Ivashkovsky. Claims fighting continues in Malaya Loknya, but with reduced intensity. States that the railway between Malaya Loknya and Sudzha is partially under Russian control, facilitating further advances towards Sudzha. Asserts that the overall Ukrainian defense around Sudzha is collapsing.
Kotsnews (10:14 UTC): Reports that the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment took several prisoners from the 95th Air Assault Brigade near Malaya Loknya. Provides a quote from a Russian commander, claiming Ukrainian soldiers fight to the last, only surrendering when ammunition runs out. Reports an incident of attempted deception by a Ukrainian soldier pretending to be Russian, resulting in his death.
袨锌械褉邪褑懈褟 Z: 袙芯械薪泻芯褉褘 袪褍褋褋泻芯泄 袙械褋薪褘 (10:06 UTC): Claims that the 34th Brigade is "destroying fleeing militants" from Malaya Loknya, utilizing FPV drones and drones with explosive drops.
笑袗袩袥袉袆袧袣袨_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:26 UTC): Report from DeepState, that the Russian army has occupied Lebedevka, and has made advancements in Cherkaske Porichne. The information is unofficially confirmed.
Assessment: These reports, though coming from pro-Russian sources, STRONGLY REINFORCE the picture of a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE CONFIRMED AND REPORTED ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, and HEAVY FIGHTING. The CLAIM OF THE RAILWAY BEING PARTIALLY UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL is EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT as it FURTHER THREATENS UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and FACILITATES RUSSIAN ADVANCES towards SUDZHA. The REPORTED CAPTURE OF POWS and HEAVY UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES further INDICATE THE SEVERITY OF THE SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES. The details about specific unit movements and locations provide ADDITIONAL TACTICAL INFORMATION.
DONETSK OBLAST: REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE AND CAPTURE OF KONSTANTINOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN MOD):
孝袗小小 (10:06 UTC): The Russian Ministry of Defense officially reported that the Russian forces have liberated Konstantinopol in the Donetsk region.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN CONTROL of KONSTANTINOPOL, representing a FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCE in DONETSK OBLAST.
孝袗小小 (10:02 UTC): Reports that operators of the "BARS-31" drone detachment of the Volunteer Corps of the Southern Group of Forces ambushed and destroyed a Ukrainian BTR-4 "Bucephalus" with troops using an FPV drone.
Assessment: The video evidence supports the claim that the BTR-4 "Bucephalus" was successfully ambushed and destroyed.
WESTERN CONTROL OF CENTRAL ASIAN TRANSIT CORRIDORS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
袪褘斜邪褉褜 (10:02 UTC): Reports on a recent seminar in Turkmenistan organized by the OSCE and the UK, focusing on the management of checkpoints along transit corridors in the region. Claims the West (specifically the UK, OSCE, and the US through USAID) aims to tighten control over "gray imports" to Russia and create leverage over Central Asian states.
Assessment: This report HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS AND TRADE in CENTRAL ASIA, potentially IMPACTING RUSSIA'S ABILITY to CIRCUMVENT SANCTIONS and ACCESS GOODS. This requires FURTHER INVESTIGATION and ANALYSIS.
ASTRA (10:11 UTC): Reports that a man was injured in a "Kolokolchik" mine explosion in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast.
Assessment: This report HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING DANGER of MINES in BORDER REGIONS, impacting CIVILIAN SAFETY.
RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
孝袗小小 (10:16 UTC): Reports key points from a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing, including claims of strikes on Ukrainian gas processing facilities, downing of a JDAM bomb, two HIMARS rockets, and 228 UAVs, and significant Ukrainian casualties in various sectors.
Assessment: The report serves to further showcase the Russian version of events.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE REPORTS of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, HEAVY FIGHTING, and SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. The SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL.
INCREASED DEATH TOLL from the MARCH 5TH MISSILE STRIKE on KRYVYI RIH, now at SIX.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL of KONSTANTINOPOL in DONETSK OBLAST.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
REPORTS OF POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS in CENTRAL ASIA.
REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORMS in the BLACK SEA.
CONFIRMED Ukrainian drone strike on Russian BTR-4.
Air alerts, and reports of aviation activity.
LOW PRIORITY:
MINE INCIDENT in BELGOROD OBLAST.
RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING claims.
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO THE CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND ARE FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED. The CONTINUED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, and HEAVY FIGHTING require IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION.
IMMEDIATELY REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONSAROUND SUDZHA, prioritizing the PREVENTION OF ENCIRCLEMENT and PROTECTING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
URGENTLY ASSESS THE VIABILITY of HOLDING SUDZHA. Develop and be prepared to implement CONTINGENCY PLANS for a CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary, prioritizing the SAFETY OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and PREVENTING THE CAPTURE OF EQUIPMENT.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
EXPLORE OPTIONS for COUNTER-OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS to RELIEVE PRESSURE on SUDZHA, if FEASIBLE AND RESOURCES PERMIT. HOWEVER, prioritize DEFENSIVE MEASURES given the RAPIDITY OF THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
PRIORITIZE THE EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS from AREAS DIRECTLY THREATENED by the RUSSIAN ADVANCE, particularly SUDZHA and surrounding VILLAGES.
ADDRESS ELON MUSK'S STARLINK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS A CRITICAL VULNERABILITY.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES AND POWS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
RESPOND TO CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS NEAR POKROVSK AND TORETSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):
INCREASE SURVEILLANCE and RECONNAISSANCE in these areas to VERIFY UKRAINIAN ACTIVITY and ASSESS THEIR INTENTIONS.
BE PREPARED TO REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS if necessary.
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACKS IN THE BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for NAVAL DEFENSE SYSTEMS and COASTAL SURVEILLANCE.
ASSESS THE EFFECTIVENESS of UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE TACTICS and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.
MONITOR AIR ACTIVITY NEAR KHARKIV AND ZAPORIZHZHIA:
Keep air defenses on high alert.
Monitor the region for possible attacks.
INVESTIGATE WESTERN INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, LONG-TERM ANALYSIS):
GATHER ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on REPORTED WESTERN EFFORTS to INFLUENCE LOGISTICS in CENTRAL ASIA.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIA'S ABILITY to CIRCUMVENT SANCTIONS.
The situation has CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE with the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST. The situation around SUDZHA is EXTREMELY CRITICAL, and DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to STABILIZE THE FRONTLINE and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN GAINS. The STARLINK VULNERABILITY, and the POTENTIAL WESTERN EFFORTS TO INFLUENCE LOGISTICS IN CENTRAL ASIA adds ADDITIONAL LAYERS OF COMPLEXITY to the SITUATION. The DEATH TOLL FROM THE KRYVYI RIH STRIKE CONTINUES TO RISE, highlighting the ONGOING HUMANITARIAN TRAGEDY.
