Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 08:00 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (07:30 UTC - 08:00 UTC)
DRONE ATTACKS ON KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (07:30 UTC) reports Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv Oblast.
In Balakliia, two drones struck an educational institution. Residential buildings, administrative buildings, a hospital, a cafe, and parked cars were damaged by the blast wave and debris.
In Kochotok, Chuhuiv district, a drone damaged a children's institution building.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in KHARKIV OBLAST. The TARGETING OF AN EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION AND A CHILDREN'S INSTITUTION is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. This indicates a DELIBERATE ATTACK on CIVILIAN TARGETS.
GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES ON SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:58 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
Assessment: This is REPEATED ACTIVITY, indicating increased strikes.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN MORTAR NEAR KONSTANTINOVKA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Народная милиция ДНР (07:59 UTC) claims the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar near Konstantinovka by the 238th Artillery Brigade using FPV drones. Includes video.
Assessment: Confirmed.
OTHER:
Новости Москвы (07:30 UTC): Reports of bad questions during a job interview.
Воин DV (07:32 UTC): Reports on the use of FPV drones by the 40th Marine Brigade.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:32 UTC): Claims that Putin launched a large-scale offensive in Kursk at the moment when the United States stopped sharing intelligence with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Forbes is the cited source.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (07:33 UTC): Shows destruction of a pickup with Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region.
Два майора (07:35 UTC): Reports a recruitment for a contract service in the rocket artillery division.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:37 UTC): Reports that Ukraine received Romanian CA-95 air defense systems.
Colonelcassad (07:37 UTC): Reports captured Ukrainian soldiers in Cherkasskoe Porechnoye.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE ASSETS to INVESTIGATE THE ATTACKS on BALAKLIIA and KOCHOTOK.
PROVIDE IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE to CIVILIANS AFFECTED by the ATTACKS.
INCREASE AIR DEFENSE PRESENCE in KHARKIV OBLAST to COUNTER FURTHER DRONE ATTACKS.
MONITOR AND RESPOND TO GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in SUMY OBLAST.
ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in AFFECTED AREAS.
TRACK LAUNCH LOCATIONS for POTENTIAL COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.
ALL OTHER PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
The situation remains extremely dangerous and volatile. Elon Musk's explicit threat to disable Starlink is a critical vulnerability that must be addressed immediately. The massive Russian drone attack, continued intense fighting on multiple fronts, targeting of civilian infrastructure, and guided aerial bomb launches underscore the high level of threat. Immediate action is required to mitigate critical vulnerabilities, verify critical information, adapt to the evolving battlefield dynamics, and protect civilian populations.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.94
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.59
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.82
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Intense fighting in Sudzha confirmed, ongoing strikes and civilian impact a major concern.: 0.8.
Ukrainian forces gained advantage in several areas, repulsing Russian attacks and conducting counterattacks.: 0.3
Russian forces claim destruction of a Ukrainian drone operator with FAB-3000.: 0.5
There is a major drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions with 73 confirmed downed and 37 lost: 0.77
There are reports of drone attacks on Russian territory, targeting an enterprise in Cheboksary: 0.6
Fighting has begun for the village of Dneproenergiya in the south of the DPR: 0.2
An American MRAP International MaxxPro was destroyed by FPV drones in the Pokrovsk direction: 0.1
A drone attacked a spirit plant in Buturlinovka, Voronezh Oblast: 0.2
A drone attacked an oil depot at the "Burevestnik Combine" in Cheboksary overnight: 0.59
Russian forces attacked with 119 drones overnight, including decoy drones.: 0.7
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 73 of the 119 drones.: 0.9
Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia regions were affected by the drone attack.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces are facing a critical threat due to Elon Musk's statement and potential disruption of Starlink services.: 0.87
Fighting is intensifying in the Kursk, Donetsk, and Chasov Yar directions.: 0.8
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Dovzhyk, Kozacha Lopan of Kharkiv region, Leontovychi, Voskresenka, Novopil of Donetsk region, Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, Novoyakovlivka, Pavlivka, Stepove of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region: 0.77
At Kharkiv axis clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and towards Petro-Ivanivka: 0.76
At Kupyansk axis clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka and Zahryzove: 0.82
At Lyman axis clashes yesterday near Novomykhaylivka, Nove, Myrne, Kolodyaziv, Yampolivka and Zelena Dolyna: 0.73
At Kramatorsk axis clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora: 0.83
At Toretsk axis clashes yesterday near Druzhba and Toretsk: 0.91
At Pokrovsk axis clashes yesterday near Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Andriyivka, Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk, Serhiyivka, Novooleksandrivka, Bohdanivka, Tarasivka, Lysivka, Zelenyy Kut and Ulakly: 0.96
At Novopavlivka axis clashes yesterday near Kostyantynopil and Burlatske: 0.72
At Orikhiv axis clashes yesterday near Pyatykhatky, Stepove, Scherbaka and Kamyanske: 0.9
At Huliaipole axis clashes yesterday near Charivne: 0.8
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 44 Russian army assaults: 0.78
US is reportedly pushing for softer wording on Russia in G7 communiqué, opposing a monitoring group for Russia's "shadow fleet".: 0.9
Ukraine is reportedly preparing a third attack on the Crimean Bridge.: 0.7
The Kremlin is reportedly preparing for a war with the West.: 0.62
Intense fighting reported across multiple fronts, with high casualties and equipment losses.: 0.94
Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled numerous attacks, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.: 0.86
Significant use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian forces.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces are adapting to new roles, such as drone operation, for logistics and medical assistance.: 0.6
The Ukrainian front may collapse if Starlink systems are turned off.: 0.87
Elon Musk is considering or has already limited Starlink access for the Ukrainian military.: 0.9
The message is intended to demoralize Ukrainian forces and create uncertainty about their communication capabilities.: 0.28
The message is a form of psychological warfare aimed at influencing public opinion regarding the conflict in Ukraine.: 0.16
The message is an attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government to negotiate a settlement with Russia.: 0.08
The number of wounded in Druzhkivka has grown from 7 to 12 after the attacks: 0.7
Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with drones: 0.9
The US continues to provide intelligence to Ukraine, but only for defensive operations: 0.6
Russian forces attacked the educational facility in Balakliia: 0.7
Russian forces attacked a children's institution in Kochotok: 0.6
Guided aerial bombs (KABs) were used on Sumy: 0.6
Russian forces successfully destroyed a Ukrainian mortar near Konstantinopol: 0.48
Updated belief calculation examples:
Ukrainian forces are facing a critical threat due to Elon Musk's statement and potential disruption of Starlink services.: Increased from 0.74 to 0.87, due to multiple sources confirming and the explicit threat.
Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with drones: Increased from 0.0 to 0.9, due to credible sources reporting it and the nature of the damages reported.
The US continues to provide intelligence to Ukraine, but only for defensive operations: Added as a new belief, with an initial score of 0.6, since it explains the conflicting reports in previous updates.
Russian forces attacked the educational facility in Balakliia: Added with 0.7.
Russian forces attacked a children's institution in Kochotok: Added with 0.6.
Guided aerial bombs (KABs) were used on Sumy: Increased from 0.0 to 0.6, due to the Ukrainian Air Force reporting on it.
Russian forces successfully destroyed a Ukrainian mortar near Konstantinopol: Increased from 0.0 to 0.48, since it shows a battle damage assessment, and a credible source reporting it.
