Оперативний ЗСУ (17:09 UTC) reports a Ukrainian MiG-29 destroyed a Russian hangar containing two BTRs and a BBM (likely a generic term for an armored fighting vehicle) using a GBU-62 bomb. The strike is geolocated to (51.28119, 34.27661), which is in RUSSIA, near the UKRAINIAN BORDER in KURSK OBLAST, approximately 10km from the SUMY OBLAST border. Claims the strike occurred at dawn after the equipment was moved into the hangar overnight. Claims the 41st Air Defense Division (S-300PM/PS, S-400, Buk-M3) is operating in the area, but Ukrainian bombing has not been effectively countered.
Video analysis confirms the use of an aircraft and strike on a building.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKEINSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, near the area of INTENSE FIGHTING. The USE OF A GBU-62 (a US-supplied precision-guided bomb) is NOTEWORTHY. This DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY to STRIKE TARGETS inside RUSSIA and suggests POTENTIAL ESCALATION. The claim of INEFFECTIVE RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE in the area requires VERIFICATION, but if true, is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.
Соняшник (16:34 UTC) reports on a proposal called "Sky Shield," developed by former RAF planners and Ukrainian armed forces. The plan envisions a no-fly zone over Kyiv, western, and partially southern Ukraine, covering three nuclear power plants. It proposes using 120 aircraft (including AWACS and tankers) operating from European bases. Ground-based air defense is reportedly NOT included due to "technical and tactical limitations." Funding would come from frozen Russian assets. European leaders are reportedly hesitant due to fears of escalation. The report claims a 200km buffer from Russian aircraft.
Image analysis confirms the proposal, showing a map of the suggested area.
Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PROPOSAL, but HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be IMPLEMENTED in its CURRENT FORM. The EXCLUSION OF GROUND-BASED AIR DEFENSE is a MAJOR WEAKNESS. The HESITANCY OF EUROPEAN LEADERS is UNDERSTANDABLE given the RISK OF DIRECT CONFRONTATION with RUSSIA. The 200KM BUFFER claim is QUESTIONABLE given the RANGE OF RUSSIAN AIR-LAUNCHED MISSILES. This proposal seems more like a WISH LIST than a REALISTIC PLAN.
NEW DRONE THREAT IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:18 UTC) reports a threat of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:30 UTC) reports Shahed drones heading south from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY in the NORTHERN REGION, near the area of the REPORTED UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKE. This could be RUSSIAN RETALIATION or CONTINUED RUSSIAN OPERATIONS in the area.
RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON ODESSA PORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
Colonelcassad (17:33 UTC): Reports a Geran-2 drone attack on port infrastructure in Odesa and shows video.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ATTACKS on ODESA. VERIFICATION of the SPECIFIC TARGETS and DAMAGE is needed.
OTHER REPORTS:
Люба (17:10 UTC): "Головне, щоб вуха не відрізали" (Main thing is they don't cut off ears). (Likely a comment on a previous report, potentially referencing brutality)
Colonelcassad (17:11 UTC): Shows images of protests in Kyiv. (Potential propaganda)
Дневник Десантника (17:12 UTC): Claims Iran will not negotiate with the US. (Geopolitical)
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:16 UTC): Reports on Ukraine preparing the third attack on the Kerch bridge, citing the Guardian. (Reinforces previous reports)
Рыбарь (17:21 UTC): Reports massacres in Syria, with refugees seeking shelter on the Russian base. (Geopolitical, likely propaganda)
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:24 UTC): Reports the US Congress considers classifying Turkey as a Middle Eastern Country, implying they're moving away from being allies. (Geopolitical)
РБК-Україна (17:24 UTC): Reports Hungary and the USA are cooperating due to potential USA taxes on EU products. (Geopolitical)
Colonelcassad (17:27 UTC): Provides an update on training and drone countermeasures. (Reinforces previous reports)
TACC (17:28 UTC): Reports the death of the leader of "Alpha" veterans. (No direct military significance)
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (17:30 UTC): Claims the daily life in Syria is the massacre of civilians. (Geopolitical)
Kotsnews (17:35 UTC): Reports that 35 percent believe that neutral athletes are agents of unfriendly countries. (Propaganda)
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE. RUSSIAN FORCES control APPROXIMATELY HALF of the settlement, with UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY RETREATING. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT in the KURSK REGION.
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING IN SUDZHA, with CONFIRMED STRIKES and POTENTIAL THREAT to CIVILIAN POPULATION.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATOR POST with a FAB-3000 BOMB in the GUEV REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
CONFLICTING REPORTS ON US INTELLIGENCE SHARING. US SOURCES claim CONTINUED SHARING for DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS, contradicting PREVIOUS REPORTS of a COMPLETE SUSPENSION. CLARIFICATION OF SCOPE AND NATURE is CRITICAL.
CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKE INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY near the SUMY OBLAST BORDER. This SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATES the CONFLICT and DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY to STRIKE TARGETS inside RUSSIA.
NEW DRONE THREAT IN SUMY AND POLTAVA OBLASTS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFLICTING REPORTS NEAR POKROVSK. RUSSIAN SOURCE claims INTENSE FIGHTING, with UKRAINIAN FORCESLOSING GROUND, UKRAINIAN SOURCES claim GAINING GROUND.
UKRAINIAN REPORTS of SUCCESSFUL DRONE INTERCEPTIONS in ODESA OBLAST.
RUSSIAN REPORTS of DRONE ATTACKS in ODESA.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
"SKY SHIELD" PROPOSAL for a NO-FLY ZONE over PARTS OF UKRAINE. UNLIKELY TO BE IMPLEMENTED in CURRENT FORM.
LOW PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).*
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
ADDRESS THE UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE and CASUALTIES from the UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKE.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL for RUSSIAN RETALIATION.
INCREASE READINESS of AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS along the BORDER with SUMY OBLAST.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION of CONFLICT in the BORDER REGION.
ADDRESS THE NEW DRONE THREAT IN SUMY AND POLTAVA OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in SUMY and POLTAVA OBLASTS.
DEPLOY ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ATTACKS on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY FACILITIES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
VERIFY RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON ODESSA (HIGH PRIORITY):
Deploy all available intelligence resources to verify and assess the damage.
ANALYZE THE PROPOSAL in DETAIL, identifying STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, and POTENTIAL RISKS.
EVALUATE THE FEASIBILITY of IMPLEMENTING the PROPOSAL in VARIOUS FORMS.
CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS for ENHANCING AIR DEFENSE in UKRAINE.
The situation continues to be EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN AIRSTRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA represents a MAJOR ESCALATION and INCREASES THE RISK of WIDER CONFLICT. The ONGOING FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION, the CONTINUED DRONE THREATS, and the UNCERTAINTY surrounding US INTELLIGENCE SHARING create a HIGHLY COMPLEX AND UNPREDICTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
