Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 17:07 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (16:37 UTC - 17:07 UTC)
CONFIRMATION OF US INTELLIGENCE SHARING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, US & RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Басурин о главном (16:41 UTC) and Дневник Десантника (16:51 UTC), citing Fox News: Reports the US CONTINUES to provide INTELLIGENCE to UKRAINE for DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS.
Assessment: This CONTRADICTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of a COMPLETE SUSPENSION of US INTELLIGENCE SHARING. The SPECIFIC LIMITATION to DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS is SIGNIFICANT. This suggests the US is CONTINUING TO SUPPORT UKRAINE but with RESTRICTIONS on OFFENSIVE INTELLIGENCE. URGENT CLARIFICATION of the EXACT SCOPE AND NATURE of the SHARED INTELLIGENCE is ESSENTIAL.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Рыбарь (16:44 UTC) and Военкор Котенок (17:00 UTC): Reports Russian forces (30th Motorized Rifle Regiment) have ADVANCED to the CENTER of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, capturing approximately HALF of the settlement. Claims Ukrainian forces are RETREATING towards IVASHKOVSKY.
Video analysis from Рыбарь (16:44 UTC) and Военкор Котенок (17:00 UTC) confirms Russian troops at the Church of the Ascension of the Cross in Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.
Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION. MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES and VIDEO EVIDENCE support the claim. This represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAIN and a MAJOR SETBACK FOR UKRAINE. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN RETREAT suggests BREAKDOWN OF DEFENSES in this area. URGENT VERIFICATION of the SITUATION IN THE SOUTHERN PART of the settlement is needed.
INTENSE FIGHTING IN SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:54 UTC): Shows video of Sudzha under heavy fire, with smoke and visible fires. Claims Russian aviation and artillery are targeting Ukrainian strongpoints.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in the SUDZHA AREA. The VIDEO PROVIDES VISUAL EVIDENCE of ONGOING STRIKES. The IMPACT ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE AND POPULATION is a MAJOR CONCERN.
UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF COUNTERATTACKS NEAR POKROVSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (16:55 UTC): Reports Ukrainian forces GAINED ADVANTAGE in SEVERAL AREAS near POKROVSK, REPULSING RUSSIAN ATTACKS and conducting SUCCESSFUL COUNTERATTACKS.
Assessment: Multiple new conflicting sources. These reports require urgent verification.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATOR POST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:47 UTC): Claims Russian forces (177th Marine Regiment, "Smuglyanki" detachment, Air Force) used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian drone operator post in the Guev region, Kursk Oblast.
Video analysis confirms a large explosion in a populated area.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN TARGETING of UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS. The USE OF A FAB-3000 BOMB is SIGNIFICANT, indicating a HIGH-VALUE TARGET. VERIFICATION of the CLAIMED DESTRUCTION and CASUALTIES is needed.
Сили оборони Півдня України (16:47 UTC): Claims Ukrainian mobile fire groups shot down 3 Shahed drones during a mass drone attack on Odesa Oblast.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES. The SPECIFIC NUMBER OF INTERCEPTIONS is LOWER than PREVIOUS CLAIMS, suggesting POSSIBLE PENETRATION by SOME DRONES.
OTHER UPDATES:
РБК-Україна (16:41 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian Antarctic expedition with a record number of women. (No direct military significance)
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:44 UTC): Reports a cross fell from the dome of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. (Potential propaganda target)
Colonelcassad (16:47 UTC): Reports on training of Russian soldiers to counter fiber-optic controlled drones. (Reinforces previous reports)
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (16:47 UTC): Reports a successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian tank in the Lyman direction. (Reinforces previous reports)
WarGonzo (16:49 UTC): Shows video of dead Ukrainian soldiers and captured Western weapons in Novoivanovka. (Reinforces previous reports)
ASTRA (16:52 UTC): Reports on air raid sirens during a public event in Kursk. (Indicates continued threat)
ТАСС (16:54 UTC): Reports on a visit by the Prime Minister of Myanmar to a Russian space center. (Potential military-technical cooperation)
STERNENKO (16:58 UTC): Reports Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya. (Potential information control)
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE. RUSSIAN FORCES control APPROXIMATELY HALF of the settlement, with UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY RETREATING. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT in the KURSK REGION.
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING IN SUDZHA, with CONFIRMED STRIKES and POTENTIAL THREAT to CIVILIAN POPULATION.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATOR POST with a FAB-3000 BOMB in the GUEV REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
CONFLICTING REPORTS ON US INTELLIGENCE SHARING. US SOURCES claim CONTINUED SHARING for DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS, contradicting PREVIOUS REPORTS of a COMPLETE SUSPENSION. CLARIFICATION OF SCOPE AND NATURE is CRITICAL.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFLICTING REPORTS NEAR POKROVSK. RUSSIAN SOURCE claims INTENSE FIGHTING, with UKRAINIAN FORCESLOSING GROUND, UKRAINIAN SOURCES claim GAINING GROUND.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UKRAINIAN REPORTS of SUCCESSFUL DRONE INTERCEPTIONS in ODESA OBLAST.
LOW PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).*
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
CLARIFY US INTELLIGENCE SHARING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY DETERMINE the EXACT SCOPE AND NATURE of US INTELLIGENCE SHARING with UKRAINE.
ASSESS THE IMPACT of any RESTRICTIONS on UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES of INTELLIGENCE if needed.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL for FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES in this area.
IMPLEMENT MEASURES to SLOW DOWN OR HALT THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE, including REINFORCEMENTS, COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPERATIONS, and FORTIFICATION OF DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from the area.
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in the area.
PRIORITIZE PROTECTION of CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL for FURTHER ESCALATION in this area.
VERIFY UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY):
Deploy any and all resources to confirm the situation near Pokrovsk.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING DRONE OPERATOR POST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMED DESTRUCTION and CASUALTIES.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES if confirmed.
The situation in the Kursk region continues to deteriorate rapidly, with confirmed Russian advances and intense fighting. Clarifying the status of US intelligence sharing is critical. Verifying reports near Pokrovsk and addressing the claimed destruction of a Ukrainian drone operator post are also urgent priorities.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
