Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 16:37 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (16:07 UTC - 16:37 UTC)
EUROPEAN SEARCH FOR STARLINK ALTERNATIVE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (16:09 UTC), citing the Financial Times: Reports Europe is negotiating with four satellite operators (SES, Hisdesat, Viasat, Eutelsat/OneWeb) to provide backup communications for Ukraine.
Assessment: This indicates CONCERNS about RELIANCE ON STARLINK and a DESIRE FOR DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION OPTIONS. The IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS will depend on the OUTCOME OF THESE NEGOTIATIONS and the CAPABILITIES OF THE ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS.
RUSSIAN "ISKANDER" STRIKE ON US HIMARS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:09 UTC): Claims a Russian "Iskander" missile strike destroyed a US HIMARS transport-loading vehicle and up to 10 Ukrainian personnel near Nikolaev.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM of RUSSIAN SUCCESS in COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it represents a LOSS OF A HIGH-VALUE UKRAINIAN ASSET. The SPECIFIC CLAIM OF CASUALTIES is LIKELY EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.
SUDZHA UNDER FIRE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (16:09 UTC): Shows video of Sudzha under fire, with smoke and visible fires.
Assessment: This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in the SUDZHA AREA. The VIDEO PROVIDES VISUAL EVIDENCE of ONGOING STRIKES, likely ARTILLERY OR AIRSTRIKES. The IMPACT ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE AND POPULATION is a CONCERN.
MORE REPORTS ON KURSK REGION (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):
Два майора (16:11 UTC): Same report of Ukrainian retreat from Kazachya Loknya and other settlements.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:11): Reports that Ukraine will soon have to fight for values that are no longer relevant.
Два майора (16:26): Reports that all of Kazachya Loknya is under fire.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (16:35): Reports that North Korean troops are fighting in the Sudzha region. Reports that Russian forces used a pipe to enter the Ukrainian rear.
Два майора (16:36): Reports that Russian forces are watching Ukrainian forces retreating.
Assessment:Same assessment as before.
OTHER REPORTS:
Kotsnews (16:32): Shows graphic images of dead Ukrainian soldiers.
Z комитет + карта СВО (16:33): Claims that Russian forces liberated Konstantinopol. Claims to show map of battle.
Operativny ZSU (16:34): Shows video of a downed Ukrainian drone.
MoD Russia (16:35): Shows video of Russian military training.
Colonelcassad (16:35): Shows a destroyed US Bradley fighting vehicle.
TASS (16:28): Reports that security services are being deployed to Hama province.
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (16:30): Reports that an industrial facility, infrastructure, an administrative building, 3 private houses, and a shed were damaged. Also reports that a drone attacked, and a house caught on fire.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (16:31): Reports that Putin supports the creation of a unified support for families of "SVO" fighters.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFLICTING REPORTS ON THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. RUSSIAN SOURCES claim MAJOR ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN RETREATS, including the CAPTURE OF CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE. UKRAINIAN SOURCESCONFIRM INTENSE FIGHTING but DENY A COMPLETE COLLAPSE. URGENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURING KONSTANTINOPOL. This represents a POTENTIAL MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH in the DONETSK REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.
CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. MULTIPLE REPORTS indicate SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES, with claims of a LARGE-SCALE OPERATION involving ALL UNITS. RUSSIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLY STORMING MALA LOKNYA.
CONFLICTING REPORTS ON GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC. UKRAINIAN SOURCE confirms USE OF A PIPE for infiltration but DISPUTES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of SCALE AND SUCCESS. FURTHER VERIFICATION NEEDED.
DOBROPILLIA ATTACK CASUALTIES REMAIN HIGH. CONFIRMED INJURIES of 47 PEOPLE, including SEVEN CHILDREN, and ELEVEN DEATHS. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION. Claims of a 3 KM ADVANCE and TARGETING OF SUPPLY ROUTES near KONSTANTINOVKA.
RUSSIAN ATTACK ON BRIDGE NEAR SUDZHA. REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF BRIDGECRITICALLY IMPACTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
AIR THREAT in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST has ended.
INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, as confirmed by previous reports.
CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES AND MISSILE STRIKES.
NEW CASUALTIES reported in DONETSK REGION.
POTENTIAL DECLINE IN MORALE among UKRAINIAN COMMANDERS, as suggested by a reported assessment.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
EUROPEAN SEARCH FOR STARLINK ALTERNATIVE.
RUSSIAN "ISKANDER" STRIKE ON US HIMARS.
SUDZHA UNDER FIRE.
CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, with confirmed aid figures from the US and EU.
HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION to UKRAINIAN EU MEMBERSHIP and MILITARY AID.
LONG-TERM SECURITY CONCERNS IN EUROPE, as highlighted by German intelligence.
US CONTINUES to provide INTELLIGENCE to UKRAINE.
LOW PRIORITY:
* REPORTS OF NORTH KOREAN TROOPS FIGHTING IN THE AREA.
* ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).*
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
ADDRESS THE REPORTED "ISKANDER" STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED DESTRUCTION of the US HIMARS and CASUALTIES.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY CAPABILITIES in the NIKOLAEV REGION.
IF CONFIRMED, IMPLEMENT MEASURES to MITIGATE THE LOSS and PREVENT FUTURE STRIKES.
ADDRESS REPORTS OF NORTH KOREAN TROOPS (LOW PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available resources to VERIFY the reports.
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE SATELLITE COMMUNICATION OPTIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
TRACK THE PROGRESS of EUROPEAN NEGOTIATIONS with SATELLITE OPERATORS.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL CAPABILITIES of ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS and their COMPATIBILITY with UKRAINIAN MILITARY REQUIREMENTS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The new reports highlight the CONTINUED INTENSITY OF FIGHTING and the POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS. VERIFYING CLAIMS of RUSSIAN MILITARY SUCCESSES and MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE COMMUNICATION OPTIONS are CRITICAL PRIORITIES.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
