Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 16:07 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (15:37 UTC - 16:07 UTC)
PROPAGANDA VIDEO, KURSK REGION (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:05 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces are retreating from Kazachya Loknya and other settlements in the Kursk region, leaving behind equipment. Shows video of a destroyed artillery piece and drone footage of alleged troop movements.
Assessment: This is PROPAGANDA designed to BOOST RUSSIAN MORALE and DEMORALIZE UKRAINIAN FORCES. While the VIDEO shows a DESTROYED ARTILLERY PIECE, the CLAIM OF WIDESPREAD UKRAINIAN RETREATREQUIRES VERIFICATION. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURING KONSTANTINOPOL (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (15:41 UTC), Воин DV (15:43 UTC), Colonelcassad (16:00 UTC): Claims Russian forces, specifically the 29th Guards Army of the "Vostok" group, have CAPTURED KONSTANTINOPOL. Claims of ADVANCES of 2 KM IN DEPTH and 1 KM ALONG THE FRONT, with 35 UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. Also claims ADVANCES ALONG THE VOLCHYA RIVER and in the BURLATSKOE and DNEPROENERGIYA areas.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if CONFIRMED. It represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the DONETSK REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL. The SPECIFIC CLAIMS of TERRITORIAL GAINS and UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES are LIKELY EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.
Colonelcassad (15:46 UTC): Claims that Russian forces liberated Cherkasskoe Porechnoe in the Kursk region.
Assessment: URGENT VERIFICATION needed.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT, KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (15:39 UTC): Reports the Ukrainian General Staff stating that 12 RUSSIAN ATTACKS were REPULSED in the KURSK REGION, with 14 ONGOING ENGAGEMENTS.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION but CONTRADICTS RUSSIAN CLAIMS of a COMPLETE UKRAINIAN COLLAPSE. The HIGH NUMBER OF ONGOING ENGAGEMENTS suggests the situation is FLUID AND CONTESTED.
US CONTINUES INTELLIGENCE SHARING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, US SOURCE):
ТАСС (15:43 UTC), citing Fox News: Reports the US continues to provide Ukraine with intelligence for defensive operations.
Assessment: This REASSURES that US INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT for UKRAINECONTINUES, despite PREVIOUS CONCERNS. However, the SCOPE AND NATURE of this support REMAIN UNCLEAR.
OTHER CLAIMS AND REPORTS:
Butusov Plus (15:37 UTC): Shows video of a cat on what they say is a dead soldier.
TASS (15:41): Reports that Telegram might be blocked in Russia.
Operativny ZSU (15:42): Reports that Kurakhovsky is under heavy attack.
Sternenko (16:01): Reports that 8 drones were destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
Colonelcassad (16:03): Reports a POW's story of being forced into battle after being tricked by recruiters.
Dnevnik Desantnika (16:04): Reports of a successful airstrike on a Ukrainian command post.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFLICTING REPORTS ON THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. RUSSIAN SOURCES claim MAJOR ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN RETREATS, including the CAPTURE OF CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE. UKRAINIAN SOURCESCONFIRM INTENSE FIGHTING but DENY A COMPLETE COLLAPSE. URGENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURING KONSTANTINOPOL. This represents a POTENTIAL MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH in the DONETSK REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.
CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. MULTIPLE REPORTS indicate SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES, with claims of a LARGE-SCALE OPERATION involving ALL UNITS. RUSSIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLY STORMING MALA LOKNYA.
CONFLICTING REPORTS ON GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC. UKRAINIAN SOURCE confirms USE OF A PIPE for infiltration but DISPUTES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of SCALE AND SUCCESS. FURTHER VERIFICATION NEEDED.
DOBROPILLIA ATTACK CASUALTIES REMAIN HIGH. CONFIRMED INJURIES of 47 PEOPLE, including SEVEN CHILDREN, and ELEVEN DEATHS. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION. Claims of a 3 KM ADVANCE and TARGETING OF SUPPLY ROUTES near KONSTANTINOVKA.
RUSSIAN ATTACK ON BRIDGE NEAR SUDZHA. REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF BRIDGECRITICALLY IMPACTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
AIR THREAT in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST has ended.
INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, as confirmed by previous reports.
CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES AND MISSILE STRIKES.
NEW CASUALTIES reported in DONETSK REGION.
POTENTIAL DECLINE IN MORALE among UKRAINIAN COMMANDERS, as suggested by a reported assessment.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, with confirmed aid figures from the US and EU.
HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION to UKRAINIAN EU MEMBERSHIP and MILITARY AID.
LONG-TERM SECURITY CONCERNS IN EUROPE, as highlighted by German intelligence.
US CONTINUES to provide INTELLIGENCE to UKRAINE.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
URGENTLY VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURING KONSTANTINOPOL AND CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (excluding Maxar satellite imagery, if unavailable) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported CAPTURE OF KONSTANTINOPOL and CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE.
ASSESS THE EXTENT of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the DONETSK and KURSK REGIONS.
DETERMINE THE STATUS of UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in these areas.
IF CONFIRMED, IMPLEMENT IMMEDIATE MEASURES to REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, ESTABLISH ALTERNATIVE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS, or CONDUCT A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL to PREVENT ENCIRCLEMENT.
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
Specifically address the reported LARGE-SCALE NATURE of the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE by ASSESSING THE DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL RUSSIAN UNITS.
URGENTLY VERIFY reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MALA LOKNYA.
URGENTLY ASSESS the IMPACT of the reported BRIDGE DESTRUCTION near SUDZHA on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS.
CLARIFY the situation regarding the REPORTED GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC. DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND SUCCESS of this tactic.
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the reported RUSSIAN ADVANCE and TARGETING OF SUPPLY ROUTES near KONSTANTINOVKA.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES in the area.
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES if necessary.
ADDRESS THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN DOBROPILLIA AND OTHER AFFECTED AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
PROVIDE IMMEDIATE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
ASSESS THE NEEDS of the AFFECTED POPULATION and PROVIDE SHELTER, FOOD, AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES.
INVESTIGATE THE ATTACKS and DOCUMENT EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.
ADDRESS THE NEW CASUALTIES reported in the DONETSK REGION.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations, including PRIORITIZING THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND MILITARY FACILITIES.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF REPORTED DECLINE IN UKRAINIAN COMMANDER MORALE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
GATHER INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY the reported assessment.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY STRATEGY and OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS.
MONITOR THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE US (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):Same as before.
CONTINUE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):Same as before.
Specifically addressHUNGARY'S OPPOSITION to UKRAINIAN EU MEMBERSHIP and MILITARY AID.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL CAPTURE OF KONSTANTINOPOL, if confirmed, would be a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY and a SIGNIFICANT SETBACK for UKRAINE. The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, particularly the REPORTED ATTACK ON MALA LOKNYA and the DESTRUCTION OF THE BRIDGE NEAR SUDZHA, are MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. The CONFLICTING REPORTS on the GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTICREQUIRE URGENT CLARIFICATION. The CONTINUED HIGH CASUALTY COUNTS and AIR THREATS remain CRITICAL CONCERNS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THESE CRITICAL SITUATIONS.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
