Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 13:07 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:38 UTC - 13:07 UTC)

1. CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Басурин о главном (13:03 UTC): Reports that RUSSIAN FORCES have SHIFTED TO A LARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE on the KURSK FRONT. Claims ALL UNITS are involved, including SPECIAL FORCES "AKHMAT", the 30TH MOTORIZED RIFLE REGIMENT, the 11TH AIRBORNE ASSAULT BRIGADE, the "VETERANS" brigade, the "VOSTOK" brigade, MARINE BRIGADES (155th and 810th), and other units. Reports HEAVY FIGHTING and UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE, with UKRAINIAN FORCES trying to HOLD THE YUNAKOVKA-SUDZHA ROUTE and POSITIONS IN GUEVO, LEBEDEVKA, and other points. Claims UNCONFIRMED REPORTS of UKRAINIAN FORCES BEING ORDERED TO WITHDRAW TO SUDZHA. Claims a RUSSIAN PLAN to MAINTAIN FIRE CONTROL OVER THE YUNAKOVA-SUDZHA ROUTE and BLOCK UKRAINIAN REINFORCEMENTS FROM SUMY OBLAST. Claims that VIKTOROVKA, NIKOLAEVKA, and STARAYA SOROCHINA HAVE BEEN LIBERATED. Cites RUSSIAN MILITARY CORRESPONDENTS already IN STARAYA SOROCHINA and reports PROBLEMS WITH LOGISTICS AND COMMUNICATIONS for UKRAINIAN FORCES. Reports ONGOING BATTLES for MARTYNOVKA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, and NIKOLSKOE. Claims that 180 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS WERE KILLED IN THE PAST DAY in VARIOUS LOCATIONS. Claims ONLY ONE UKRAINIAN SOLDIER SURRENDERED.

   • Два майора (12:55 UTC): Reports EXTENSIVE WORK BY INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS of the 177TH MARINE REGIMENT in the ATTACK ON SUDZHA. Claims they IDENTIFIED UKRAINIAN AMMUNITION AND DRONE STORAGE LOCATIONS, and that FIRE WAS DIRECTED using DRONES, ARTILLERY, and FAB-500 BOMBS, REDUCING UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES.

   • Colonelcassad (12:49 UTC): Shows a video of a DESTROYED BRIDGE near GUEVO. Claims this CONTINUES TO CUT OFF UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS, which is the MAIN PROBLEM for UKRAINIAN FORCES in KURSK OBLAST.

   • Басурин о главном (13:03 UTC) and Colonelcassad (13:04 UTC): Both discuss the impact of halted US supplies of weapons, ammunition, and intelligence. Colonelcassad asserts this does not mean the enemy has ceased all resistance.

• Assessment: The situation in KURSK OBLAST remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL for UKRAINIAN FORCES. MULTIPLE SOURCES, primarily Russian but increasingly supported by evidence, confirm a CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE, with ADVANCES REPORTED along MULTIPLE AXES. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES is EXTREMELY HIGH. Reports of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES, and DECREASING MORALE paint a GRAVE PICTURE. The DESTRUCTION OF THE BRIDGE NEAR GUEVO further ISOLATES UKRAINIAN FORCES. The RUSSIAN CLAIMS of IDENTIFYING AND TARGETING UKRAINIAN AMMUNITION AND DRONE STORAGE LOCATIONS are SIGNIFICANT if confirmed, indicating EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE AND TARGETING. The Russian reports of VERY LOW SURRENDER RATES among UKRAINIAN FORCES are NOTEWORTHY.

2. REPORTED ANTI-AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (13:04 UTC), MoD Russia (13:03 UTC): Reports a Russian FPV drone downed a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone, "Furia".

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN RECRUITING (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Два майора (13:05): Reports an advertisement to join the "Stalin's Falcons" unit.

4. REPORTED AIR ALARM (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (12:50 UTC): Reports an air alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • РБК-Україна (12:53, 12:56 UTC), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (12:53, 12:55 UTC), STERNENKO (12:54, 12:55 UTC), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:55, 12:57 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (12:57 UTC): All report an air alarm in Kyiv and other regions, with the threat of ballistic missiles.

5. TELEGRAM BLOCKED IN CHECHNYA AND DAGESTAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ASTRA (12:47 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:56 UTC): Both confirm the Telegram block, citing security concerns and connections to riots in Makhachkala.

6. REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACK ON BOGODUKHOV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (12:48 UTC): Reports FOUR GERAN-2 DRONES struck a MEAT PROCESSING PLANT in BOGODUKHOV, KHARKIV OBLAST, used as a SUPPLY POINT FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES. Claims WAREHOUSES AND TRANSPORT WERE DESTROYED.

7. OTHER:

• РБК-Україна (12:49 UTC): Reports images of the aftermath of airstrikes in Konstantinovka.
• КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (13:06 UTC): Reports on upcoming decisions regarding transportation during air raids.
• Рыбарь (13:06 UTC): Discusses US aid to Moldova.
• АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (13:02 UTC): Reports that Australia does not rule out sending troops to Ukraine.
• ТАСС (12:55): Reports that the candidate for President of the IOC will visit Moscow.
• Новости Москвы (12:55 UTC): Reports it is the warmest March 8th on record in Moscow.
• Старше Эдды (12:50): Claims heavy losses in the Kursk region.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN KURSK OBLAST, with ADVANCES REPORTED along MULTIPLE AXES. EXTREMELY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES. REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES, and DECREASING MORALE. DESTRUCTION OF A BRIDGE NEAR GUEVO FURTHER ISOLATES UKRAINIAN FORCES. RUSSIAN CLAIMS of IDENTIFYING AND TARGETING UKRAINIAN AMMUNITION AND DRONE STORAGE LOCATIONS.
  • UKRAINIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE COUNTERED the RUSSIAN GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION ATTEMPT, inflicting SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES. This is REINFORCED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS, with INCREASED CASUALTY FIGURES in DOBROPOLYE.
  • CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY, with GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS launched on SUMY OBLAST.
  • AIR ALARM in KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS, with THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILES.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ATTACK on a MEAT PROCESSING PLANT in BOGODUKHOV, KHARKIV OBLAST, used as a SUPPLY POINT FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES.

• Reported use of FPV-drone.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • TELEGRAM BLOCKED in CHECHNYA AND DAGESTAN due to SECURITY CONCERNS.
  • NO MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH reported near NOVENKOYE and ZHURAVKA.

• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect and are FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE, the EXTREMELY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ENCIRCLEMENT, and the REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF THE BRIDGE NEAR GUEVO require an IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, and COORDINATED RESPONSE.
   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE REINFORCEMENTS to the KURSK REGION to STABILIZE THE DEFENSIVE LINES and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of SUDZHA and PREVENT THE ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
   • INVESTIGATE AND IMPLEMENT MEASURES to SECURE ALL POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ROUTES, including GAS PIPELINES and OTHER UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT COUNTERMEASURES against the RUSSIAN USE OF FIBER-OPTIC CONTROLLED DRONES.
   • URGENTLY ASSESS the VIABILITY OF HOLDING CURRENT POSITIONS in the KURSK REGION given the RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the EXTREME THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT. DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POSSIBLE WITHDRAWAL, including PRIORITIZED EVACUATION ROUTES, DEMOLITION PLANS for CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and REARGUARD ACTIONS to DELAY RUSSIAN ADVANCES. THIS IS NOW THE HIGHEST PRIORITY.
   • INVESTIGATE the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of IDENTIFYING AND TARGETING UKRAINIAN AMMUNITION AND DRONE STORAGE LOCATIONS to ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES and ADJUST DEFENSIVE STRATEGIES ACCORDINGLY.

2. ADDRESS THE GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION VULNERABILITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations are in effect, and FURTHER REINFORCED by the CONFIRMATION FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES of the SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OPERATION.
   • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to GATHER INFORMATION on RUSSIAN TACTICS and POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ROUTES.

3. RESPOND TO REPORTED STRIKES AND CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations are in effect.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGHEST ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ALL THREATENED AREAS, particularly KYIV and SURROUNDING OBLASTS due to the BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT.
   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL MISSILE STRIKES.
   • PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLAST given the REPORTED LAUNCH OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS from LUGANSK OBLAST and the reported attack on BOGODUKHOV.

5. INVESTIGATE REPORTED ATTACK ON BOGODUKHOV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of the ATTACK ON THE MEAT PROCESSING PLANT in BOGODUKHOV.
   • ASSESS THE DAMAGE and the IMPACT on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.

6. MAINTAIN AND REINFORCE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED.

The situation in KURSK OBLAST has become EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, a VERY HIGH THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT, and CONFIRMED DISRUPTION OF UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to PREVENT A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN POSITION. The THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS on KYIV AND OTHER REGIONS necessitates MAINTAINING MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS. The situation is evolving rapidly, and continued monitoring and adaptation are crucial.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.97
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.85
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3