Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 12:37 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:07 UTC - 12:37 UTC)

1. CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Военкор Котенок (12:09 UTC): Reports Russian forces attacking SUDZHA from MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS. Claims Ukrainian forces are ATTEMPTING TO HOLD the YUNAKOVKA CORRIDOR from SUDZHA. Claims Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian personnel and equipment in this area. Reports a plan by Ukrainian command to withdraw forces from the Kursk region but claims that Russian command is taking steps to destroy them. Claims MARINE AND VOLUNTEER FORCES (including former Wagner personnel) BLOCKED A SECONDARY ROAD used for Ukrainian supply in SUDZHA and are ADVANCING TOWARDS THE MAIN SUPPLY ROAD. Reports RUSSIAN ADVANCES west of BASOVKA and near NOVENKOYE, and towards MARTYNOVKA. Claims Ukrainian forces are NOT RETREATING but are being PUSHED BACK with FIERCE FIGHTING.

   • Дневник Десантника (12:26 UTC): Reports WITHDRAWAL OF ENEMY GROUPS from MALAYA LOKNYA. Claims Russian forces are ADVANCING ALONG THE RAILWAY and FOREST BELTS north of MALAYA LOKNYA. Claims Russian forces are ADVANCING from NIKOLAEVKA and VIKTOROVKA. Claims FALSE REPORTS in Ukrainian channels of significant Russian control near BASOVKA. Reports that RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL over a road near KURILOVKA has CUT OFF SUPPLIES to a UKRAINIAN GROUPING. Claims a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of approximately 10,000 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS, which could lead to a UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK from SUMY OBLAST.

   • «Зона СВО» (12:20, 12:27) Reports that the units present on the Kursk line of contact went into large-scale offensive from all directions. States, among others, that the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment, Spetsnaz Akhmat, and Marine units are attacking and advancing. Reports that Russian troops are inside Sudzha, blocking attempts to get reinforcements. Claims of attacks occurring "on the outskirts of Sudzha."

   • Два майора (12:27 UTC): Citing АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, reports a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES in the KURSK REGION. Claims RUSSIAN FORCES have CLEARED STARAYA SOROCHINA, VIKTOROVKA, and NIKOLAEVKA following a failed Ukrainian counterattack. Claims RUSSIAN FORCES are ADVANCING in MALAYA LOKNYA. Reports INCREASED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY targeting RUSSKOYE PORECHNOYE, CHERKASSKOYE PORECHNOYE, MARTYNOVKA, AGRONOM, and MAKNOVKA. Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES are EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTIES with SUPPLIES AND ROTATION and are INCREASINGLY REFUSING TO CARRY OUT ORDERS. Reports a DECREASE IN UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY FIRE, possibly due to AMMUNITION SHORTAGES, with continued use of FPV drones. Claims the UKRAINIAN 82ND AIR ASSAULT BRIGADE has been WITHDRAWN FOR RECOVERY and that the 61ST MECHANIZED BRIGADE is NOT ENGAGING ACTIVELY. Reports that RUSSIAN FORCES are BURNING OUT UKRAINIAN INFANTRY with DRONE DROPS.

   • Assessment: The situation in KURSK OBLAST remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL for UKRAINIAN FORCES. MULTIPLE SOURCES confirm a CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE, with ADVANCES REPORTED along MULTIPLE AXES. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES is a SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. Reports of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES, and DECREASING MORALE suggest a DETERIORATING SITUATION. The CLAIM OF RUSSIAN FORCES ALREADY INSIDE SUDZHA is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if confirmed.

2. REPORTED COUNTER TO GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (12:03 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (12:14 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian DESANTNYKY (likely air assault or special forces) ANTICIPATED AND COUNTERED a RUSSIAN ATTEMPT to use the PROGRESS GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION in the SUDZHA AREA. Claims RUSSIAN FORCES attempted to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka. Reports a UKRAINIAN AMBUSH that BLOCKED THE TUNNEL EXIT and INFLICTED APPROXIMATELY 80% CASUALTIES on the RUSSIAN FORCE. Claims RADIO INTERCEPTS confirm RUSSIAN PANIC.

   • Alex Parker Returns (12:18 UTC): Reports claims it is possible to reach Uzhgorod through the gas pipeline.

   • Assessment: UKRAINIAN FORCES claim to have SUCCESSFULLY COUNTERED the RUSSIAN ATTEMPT to use the GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION, inflicting SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES. This demonstrates UKRAINIAN ADAPTABILITY and INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. The HIGH CASUALTY FIGURES require CAREFUL VERIFICATION, but the overall report is CREDIBLE given the MULTIPLE SOURCES and PREVIOUS CONFIRMATION of the PIPELINE INFILTRATION ATTEMPT. It however, raises alarm to possible similar breaches of security in other regions.

3. REPORTED NO MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH NEAR NOVENKOYE AND ZHURAVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:21 UTC): Reports that NO MASSIVE BORDER BREAKTHROUGH is observed in the SUMY OBLAST between NOVENKOYE and ZHURAVKA. Claims RUSSIAN INFANTRY is ATTEMPTING TO BREAK THROUGH in SMALL GROUPS WITHOUT SUCCESS.

   • Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS at BORDER INCURSIONS, but NO MAJOR SUCCESSES in this SPECIFIC AREA. It does NOT rule out OTHER INCURSIONS or BREAKTHROUGHS elsewhere.

4. REPORTED STRIKES AND CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• ASTRA (12:19 UTC): Reports one killed, four injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson region.

  • Colonelcassad (12:10 UTC): Reports a strike in DOBROPOLYE.

  • РБК-Україна (12:32 UTC): Reports the number of injured in DOBROPOLYE has risen to 40.

  • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS, resulting in CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE. The INCREASED CASUALTY FIGURES in DOBROPOLYE are CONCERNING.

5. REPORTED RUSSIAN USE OF FIBER-OPTIC CONTROLLED FPV DRONE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

• ТАСС (12:11): Reports a FPV drone used in an attack.

6. AIR ACTIVITY AND ALERTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:12, 12:13 UTC): Reports LAUNCH OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (KAB) on SUMY OBLAST and on the NORTH OF KHARKIV OBLAST from LUGANSK OBLAST.

   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL THREATS from GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS. The LAUNCH FROM LUGANSK OBLAST into NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLAST is a NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT.

7. OTHER NOTABLE DEVELOPMENTS:

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:25 UTC): Reports Telegram being blocked in Chechnya and Dagestan.

8. PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY):

   • Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (12:21 UTC): Propaganda message about Russian soldiers.
   • Kotsnews (12:25 UTC): Reports on VKS activity in the Sudzhansky direction.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:27): Reports on the situation in Kursk region.
   • Воин DV (12:30 UTC): Congratulatory message to women.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (12:31): Congratulatory message.
   • «Зона СВО» (12:25): Claims that the final battle is taking place in Kursk direction.
   • Assessment: Various reports, some requiring further verification, and some propaganda.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in KURSK OBLAST, with ADVANCES REPORTED along MULTIPLE AXES. POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES. REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES, and DECREASING MORALE. CLAIM OF RUSSIAN FORCES ALREADY INSIDE SUDZHA.
  • UKRAINIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE COUNTERED the RUSSIAN GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION ATTEMPT, inflicting SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS, with INCREASED CASUALTY FIGURES in DOBROPOLYE.
  • CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY, with GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS launched on SUMY and NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLASTS.

• Reported use of FPV-drone.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • NO MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH reported near NOVENKOYE and ZHURAVKA.

• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect and are FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE and the POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ENCIRCLEMENT require an IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, and COORDINATED RESPONSE.
   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE REINFORCEMENTS to the KURSK REGION to STABILIZE THE DEFENSIVE LINES and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of SUDZHA and PREVENT THE ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
   • INVESTIGATE AND IMPLEMENT MEASURES to SECURE ALL POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ROUTES, including GAS PIPELINES and OTHER UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT COUNTERMEASURES against the RUSSIAN USE OF FIBER-OPTIC CONTROLLED DRONES.
   • CONSIDER A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary, PRIORITIZING THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and PREVENTING THE CAPTURE OF EQUIPMENT.
   • URGENTLY ASSESS the VIABILITY OF HOLDING CURRENT POSITIONS in the KURSK REGION given the RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT. DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POSSIBLE WITHDRAWAL, including PRIORITIZED EVACUATION ROUTES, DEMOLITION PLANS for CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and REARGUARD ACTIONS to DELAY RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

2. ADDRESS THE GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION VULNERABILITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations in effect.
   • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to GATHER INFORMATION on RUSSIAN TACTICS and POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ROUTES.

3. RESPOND TO REPORTED STRIKES AND CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations in effect.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in THREATENED AREAS, particularly SUMY and NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLASTS.
   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL MISSILE STRIKES.
   • PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLAST given the REPORTED LAUNCH OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS from LUGANSK OBLAST.

5. MAINTAIN AND REINFORCE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED.

The situation in KURSK OBLAST has further deteriorated, with CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and a GROWING THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to STABILIZE THE SITUATION and PREVENT A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN POSITION. The USE OF UNCONVENTIONAL TACTICS by RUSSIAN FORCES highlights the NEED FOR ADAPTABILITY AND INNOVATION. The use of FPV-drone strikes also highlights the necessity of adaptation and innovation.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.97
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.85
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5