Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 12:07 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:37 UTC - 12:07 UTC)

1. KURSK OBLAST: INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (11:45 UTC, 12:03 UTC): Reports a MASSIVE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE across ALL SECTORS of the KURSK FRONT. Claims the liberation of KUBATKIN KHUTOR and ongoing battles for the INDUSTRIAL ZONE NEAR SUDZHA. Reports SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES. Also reports that UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE RETREATING with their equipment toward Sudzha, LEAVING BEHIND INFANTRY. General Alaudinov confirms the attack.

   • WarGonzo (12:02 UTC): Reports that the Sever Group of Forces attacks on several directions.

   • Роман Алехин (12:03 UTC): Reports Ukrainian forces retreating with equipment, abandoning their infantry.

   • Assessment: There is VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE in a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE SOURCES reporting SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN FORCES ABANDONING INFANTRY requires CAREFUL CONSIDERATION but is PLAUSIBLE given the RAPIDITY OF THE REPORTED ADVANCE and PREVIOUS REPORTS OF LOGISTICAL DIFFICULTIES. The SITUATION IS EXTREMELY CRITICAL for UKRAINIAN FORCES.

2. ALLEGED RUSSIAN USE OF GAS PIPELINE FOR INFILTRATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:44 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:45 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (11:41 UTC, 11:46 UTC), Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (11:59 UTC): Multiple reports from both Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources claim RUSSIAN FORCES USED A GAS PIPELINE (specifically the "Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod" pipeline) to INFILTRATE the SUDZHA AREA. Ukrainian sources claim the pipeline was IMPOSSIBLE TO DESTROY due to LOGISTICAL CONSTRAINTS. Pro-Russian sources claim 100 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS used the pipeline. Ukrainian sources claim to have AMBUSHED AND ELIMINATED a LARGE GROUP OF RUSSIAN SABOTEURS attempting to use the pipeline, inflicting approximately 80% casualties.

• Assessment: The USE OF A GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION is HIGHLY UNUSUAL but CREDIBLE given the MULTIPLE REPORTS FROM OPPOSING SIDES. The EXTENT OF THE INFILTRATION and the CASUALTY FIGURES are UNCLEAR, but the TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS are SIGNIFICANT. This represents a MAJOR VULNERABILITY in UKRAINIAN DEFENSES.

3. REPORTED STRIKES AND CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Север.Реалии (11:43 UTC): Reports a RUSSIAN SHELLING ATTACK in KHRSON, injuring an 86-year-old woman and an 81-year-old man. Also reports FIVE AERIAL BOMBS DROPPED on KOSTIANTYNIVKA, injuring four residents aged 29-48. Damage includes 7 apartment buildings, 4 private houses, 4 administrative buildings, a pharmacy, a shop, 6 power lines, and 2 gas pipelines.

   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS AND INFRASTRUCTURE, causing CASUALTIES and DAMAGE.

4. AIR ACTIVITY AND ALERTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:44 UTC): Reported a missile threat in MYKOLAIV and DONETSK OBLASTS.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:47 UTC): Reported the threat lifted in SUMY and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:00 UTC): Reports missile danger in Kharkiv region.

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:03 UTC): Reports activity of tactical aviation on the North-Eastern axis. Threat of aviation strikes in the front regions. * Игорь Артамонов (11:49 UTC): Reports the cancellation of the air raid alert in the LIPETSK REGION.

*   **Assessment:**  Confirms *CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY* and *POTENTIAL MISSILE THREATS* across *MULTIPLE REGIONS*.

5. OTHER NOTABLE DEVELOPMENTS:

   • Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (11:38 UTC): Pro-Russian source reports a rumor that the US has stopped planning future exercises in Europe.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:40 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces will not support ceasefire.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:40 UTC): Propaganda message about Russian soldiers.
   • STERNENKO (11:41 UTC): Reports the challenging situation in Kursk region.

• РБК-Україна (11:51 UTC): Reports a dispute between France and Germany over the EU rearmament plan.
• Рыбарь (11:52 UTC): Discusses the Russian deputy defense minister visiting Nigeria.
• Colonelcassad (11:53 UTC): Reports that the Center Group's drone struck a 151st Ombre.
• ТАСС (12:03 UTC): Reports that Telegram is blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.
  • Assessment: Various reports, some requiring further verification, and some propaganda.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE SOURCES reporting SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and a MASSIVE OFFENSIVE ACROSS ALL SECTORS. CLAIMED CAPTURE OF KUBATKIN KHUTOR. IMMINENT THREAT TO SUDZHA. UKRAINIAN FORCES are reportedly RETREATING, potentially LEAVING BEHIND INFANTRY.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN USE OF A GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION in the SUDZHA AREA. This represents a MAJOR TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT and a SIGNIFICANT VULNERABILITY. UNCLEAR EXTENT OF INFILTRATION AND CASUALTIES.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS AND INFRASTRUCTURE in KHRSON and KOSTIANTYNIVKA, causing CASUALTIES and DAMAGE.
  • CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL MISSILE THREATS in MULTIPLE REGIONS.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • All other previously identified medium and low-priority issues remain relevant.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect and are FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED. The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE and the CONFIRMED USE OF A GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION require an IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, and COORDINATED RESPONSE.
   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE REINFORCEMENTS to the KURSK REGION to STABILIZE THE DEFENSIVE LINES and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of SUDZHA and PREVENT THE ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
   • INVESTIGATE AND IMPLEMENT MEASURES to SECURE ALL POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ROUTES, including GAS PIPELINES and OTHER UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT COUNTERMEASURES against the RUSSIAN USE OF FIBER-OPTIC CONTROLLED DRONES.
   • CONSIDER A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary, PRIORITIZING THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and PREVENTING THE CAPTURE OF EQUIPMENT.

2. ADDRESS THE GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION VULNERABILITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY ASSESS the VULNERABILITY of ALL GAS PIPELINES and OTHER UNDERGROUND INFRASTRUCTURE near the BORDER and in ACTIVE COMBAT ZONES.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT MEASURES to MONITOR, SECURE, and PREVENT THE USE of these INFRASTRUCTURES for INFILTRATION. This may include:
     • INCREASED SURVEILLANCE using DRONES, SENSORS, and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.
     • DEPLOYMENT OF SECURITY FORCES to GUARD CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
     • DEVELOPMENT OF RAPID RESPONSE PLANS to ADDRESS POTENTIAL INFILTRATIONS.
     • CONSIDER THE USE OF TECHNOLOGY to DETECT AND DISRUPT movement within PIPELINES.
   • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to GATHER INFORMATION on RUSSIAN TACTICS and POTENTIAL INFILTRATION ROUTES.

3. RESPOND TO REPORTED STRIKES AND CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS to ALL AFFECTED AREAS to PROVIDE ASSISTANCE TO CIVILIANS, ASSESS DAMAGE, and EXTINGUISH FIRES.
   • INVESTIGATE THE STRIKES to DETERMINE THE TYPES OF WEAPONS USED, IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF FIRE, and GATHER EVIDENCE for POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in THREATENED AREAS, particularly MYKOLAIV, DONETSK, and KHARKIV OBLASTS.
   • CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL MISSILE STRIKES.

5. MAINTAIN AND REINFORCE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED.

The situation has DRAMATICALLY DETERIORATED with the INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in KURSK OBLAST and the CONFIRMED USE OF A GAS PIPELINE for INFILTRATION. This represents a MAJOR AND IMMINENT THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES and TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, and COORDINATED ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE RISKS and PREVENT A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN POSITION in the AFFECTED AREA. The USE OF UNCONVENTIONAL TACTICS by RUSSIAN FORCES highlights the NEED FOR ADAPTABILITY and INNOVATION in UKRAINIAN DEFENSE STRATEGIES.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.95
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.7
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.7
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.45
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.6
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.8
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.5
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.8
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9