WarGonzo (11:02 UTC): Reports ongoing Russian pressure near Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces preparing several brigades for a potential breakthrough attempt. This is qualified as a POSSIBLE ATTEMPT TO RESTORE LOGISTICS, not necessarily a full-scale offensive.
Kotsnews (10:56 UTC): Claims Russian forces have liberated VIKTOROVKA, NIKOLAEVKA, and STARAYA SOROCHINA in KURSK OBLAST. This claims SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of a Ukrainian grouping in MALAYA LOKNYA. The ONLY REMAINING RETREAT ROUTE is south towards SUDZHA.
РБК-Україна (11:13 UTC, 11:20 UTC): Reports from informed sources that UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE NOT WITHDRAWING FROM KURSK OBLAST and NO ENCIRCLEMENT EXISTS. They acknowledge Russian advances northwest of Sudzha (near Sverdlikovo) and south of Sudzha (near Kurilovka), aimed at Basivka and Yunakivka (Sumy Oblast). They report the width of the Ukrainian "bridgehead" has narrowed to 11km. UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE TAKING MEASURES TO STABILIZE THE SITUATION AND PLAN COUNTERACTIONS. MASSIVE USE OF RUSSIAN DRONES WITH FIBER-OPTIC CABLES is cited as a major difficulty.
Старше Эдды (10:53 UTC): Claims Russian control of STARAYA SOROCHINA and states MALAYA LOKNYA SHOULD PREPARE.
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (10:59 UTC): Identical to Старше Эдды.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:46): Reports the Russian army is developing an offensive on Sudzha, claiming the liquidation of Ukrainian soldiers, and the potential storming of Malaya Loknya.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:02 UTC): Reports on drone funding for Kursk.
Фонд Архангел «Легион» (10:56 UTC): Requests support for the A-227 Special Purpose Detachment of the volunteer corps, specifying equipment requests for the Kursk region.
Assessment: There is HIGH CONFIDENCE in SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, particularly around STARAYA SOROCHINA. While UKRAINIAN SOURCES DENY A COMPLETE WITHDRAWAL OR ENCIRCLEMENT, the SITUATION IS CLEARLY CRITICAL for UKRAINIAN FORCES. The RUSSIAN AIM appears to be to CUT OFF UKRAINIAN FORCES in the area and PUSH TOWARDS SUDZHA. RUSSIAN ADVANCES ARE CONFIRMED, but the EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN CONTROL in MALAYA LOKNYA remains UNCLEAR. The REPORTED USE OF FIBER-OPTIC DRONES is a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT, making countermeasures MORE DIFFICULT.
AIR ACTIVITY AND ALERTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:07 UTC): Reported drone activity near CHERNIHIV, SUMY, KHARKIV, and PAVLOHRAD. Possible air defense activity.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:08 UTC): Reported a threat lifted.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:56 UTC): Reported a threat of ballistic weapons in areas where air raid alerts were declared.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:16 UTC): Air raid alert in Kharkiv Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:31 UTC): Missile threat in Mykolaiv and Donetsk.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:33 UTC): Air raid alert canceled.
Assessment: Confirms CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. AIR DEFENSES are ACTIVE. The SHORT DURATION of the alerts suggests LIMITED OR UNSUCCESSFUL ATTACKS.
REPORTED STRIKES AND DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Офіс Генерального прокурора (11:03 UTC, 11:24 UTC): Reports a MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK on ODESA overnight (March 7-8), damaging energy and civilian infrastructure, including an agricultural hangar, an industrial building, a gas station, a car dealership, and at least 8 vehicles. Nearly 1,500 residents lost power. Investigation is underway. Also reports DRONE STRIKES in KHARKIV OBLAST overnight (March 7-8) and in the early morning of March 8. PECHENIHY (Chuhuiv district) was hit, damaging a residential building and an administrative building. A 71-year-old man was injured. BOHODUKHIV was also hit, with FOUR DRONES STRIKING A MEAT PROCESSING PLANT, killing three and injuring six.
ASTRA (11:04): Reports 4 people being injured in Konstantinovka.
РБК-Україна (10:48 UTC): Reports Russian forces dropped FIVE AERIAL BOMBS on KOSTIANTYNIVKA, injuring residents aged 29-48. Damage includes 7 apartment buildings, 4 private houses, 4 administrative buildings, a pharmacy, a shop, 6 power lines, and 2 gas pipelines.
Сливочный каприз (11:04, 11:28): Reports on positional battles near Horlivka. Claims Ukrainian forces expanded their control zone in Zabalka by up to 500 meters. Russian forces fired on a Ukrainian forward position.
Оперативний ЗСУ (11:05): Shows a video of burning vehicles.
Assessment:CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT DRONE AND AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS targeting CIVILIAN AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE in ODESA and KHARKIV OBLAST. CASUALTIES CONFIRMED. The SCALE OF DAMAGE in ODESA is SUBSTANTIAL. The attack on the MEAT PROCESSING PLANT in BOHODUKHIV is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING due to CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
OTHER NOTABLE DEVELOPMENTS:
MoD Russia (11:12 UTC): Reports that in the Vostok Grouping area, motorized infantry units continue to advance. A soldier discusses enemy tactics and the avoidance of direct engagement.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:04 UTC): Claims a Russian strike on March 3 killed a Ukrainian officer in Sumy Oblast.
Colonelcassad (11:15): Gives the Russian Ministry of Defense report.
Assessment: Standard reporting and propaganda.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED AND SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST, with MULTIPLE SOURCES reporting the capture of VIKTOROVKA, NIKOLAEVKA, and STARAYA SOROCHINA. IMMINENT THREAT to MALAYA LOKNYA and SUDZHA. UKRAINIAN FORCES are NOT WITHDRAWING and are PLANNING COUNTERACTIONS, but the SITUATION IS CRITICAL.
CONFIRMED "DOUBLE-TAP" STRIKE in DOBROPILLIA.
NETHERLANDS PROVIDES AN ADDITIONAL €700M IN MILITARY AID, FOCUSING ON DRONES.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE ON SUDZHA.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED FIGHTING near KOSTIANTYNIVKA, with RUSSIAN FPV DRONE USE.
CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKES in SUMY, causing DAMAGE and leaving an UNEXPLODED DRONE.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES in IVANO-FRANKIVSK, targeting ALLEGED F-16S AND FOREIGN MERCENARIES.
CONFIRMED AIR RAID ALERTS in CHERNIHIV and SUMY OBLASTS.
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO BE REPELLING ATTACKS IN KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY).
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM a SUCCESSFUL STRIKE against a UKRAINIAN UAV COMMAND POST in KHERSON OBLAST.
RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING: CASUALTY CLAIMS, TARGETING OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
REPORTED STRIKE ON FRONTLINE SETTLEMENT.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES.
AIR RAID ALERT IN LIPETSK REGION, RUSSIA.
UKRAINIAN FORCES COUNTERATTACKS.
CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKES in KHARKIV OBLAST.
CONFIRMED ATTACK on a MEAT PROCESSING PLANT in BOHODUKHIV.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
Arrest of an alleged spy in the State Space Agency.
Telegram vulnerability report.
MANDATORY MILITARY TRAINING IN POLAND.
ODESSA DRONE ATTACK.
UKRAINIAN FORCES STRIKE RUSSIAN POSITIONS.
LOW PRIORITY:
All other previously identified low-priority issues remain relevant.
ROYAL NAVY ANALYSIS.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are further reinforced. The continued Russian advance, coupled with the new reports, requires an immediate and decisive response.
DEPLOY ADDITIONAL FORCES to the KURSK REGION to REINFORCE DEFENSES and PREPARE FOR COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.
PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of SUDZHA and MALAYA LOKNYA.
INVESTIGATE reports of FIBER-OPTIC CONTROLLED DRONES and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.
MAINTAIN efforts to counter Ukrainian drone strikes.
RESPOND TO THE REPORTED STRIKE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS to the AFFECTED SETTLEMENT to ASSESS DAMAGE, PROVIDE ASSISTANCE TO CIVILIANS, and EXTINGUISH THE FIRE.
INVESTIGATE THE STRIKE to DETERMINE THE TYPE OF WEAPON USED and IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF FIRE.
ADDRESS THE AIR RAID ALERTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in THREATENED AREAS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL MISSILE STRIKES.
INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO THE ATTACKS IN ODESA AND KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS to ALL AFFECTED AREAS to PROVIDE ASSISTANCE TO CIVILIANS, ASSESS DAMAGE, and EXTINGUISH FIRES.
INVESTIGATE the attacks to DETERMINE THE TYPES OF WEAPONS USED, IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF FIRE, and GATHER EVIDENCE for POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.
PRIORITIZE REPAIRING damaged ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE to RESTORE POWER to affected areas.
MAINTAIN AND REINFORCE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): All other recommendations remain in effect.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL and is RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST, coupled with the CONFIRMED ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, represents a MAJOR AND GROWING THREAT. The situation requires IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, and COORDINATED ACTION to MITIGATE THE RISKS and PREVENT FURTHER DETERIORATION of the UKRAINIAN POSITION. The USE OF FIBER-OPTIC CONTROLLED DRONES by RUSSIAN FORCES is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that requires URGENT ATTENTION.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.95
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.7
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.7
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.45
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.6
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.8
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.8
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.5
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.5
