Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 08:07 UTC
Changes and New Information (07:37 UTC - 08:07 UTC)
KURSK OBLAST OFFENSIVE/SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (07:38 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian propaganda is shifting blame for the situation in Kursk Oblast to the Trump administration, claiming that the suspension of US aid led to the current crisis. He disputes this, stating that the situation is a result of a politically motivated Ukrainian offensive that failed. He confirms active Russian operations to liberate Sudzha.
Alex Parker Returns (07:48 UTC): Reports that the New York Times published a quote stating that Ukrainian Defenses are not stopping the Russian forces, and have little numbers to stop a force of North Koreans that has been reported.
Assessment:THIS REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS OF A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SITUATION FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES in KURSK OBLAST. The CONFIRMATION OF ACTIVE RUSSIAN OPERATIONS to LIBERATE SUDZHA and the REPORTED UKRAINIAN ATTRIBUTION OF BLAME to the US indicate the SEVERITY of the SITUATION. The PROPAGANDA ANGLE should be CAREFULLY MONITORED.
ТАСС (07:50 UTC): Reports two people injured by Ukrainian drone attacks in the village of Giri, Kursk region, according to acting Governor Khinshtein.
Assessment: Adds further confirmation to Ukrainian attacks in the region.
РБК-Україна (07:41 UTC): Provides images of the aftermath of the Bohodukhiv strike, confirming the deaths of three men. The attack involved four drones and caused a large fire.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE DEATH TOLL (three men) from the BOHODUKHIV STRIKE. The USE OF FOUR DRONES and the LARGE FIRE indicate a SIGNIFICANT ATTACK.
ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (07:45): Air raid alert declared in the region.
Assessment: Reinforces previous reports that this remains an active area of conflict.
KRASNOARMEYSK (POKROVSK) DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (07:48 UTC): Reports an FPV drone attack by the "SSO Byzantium" unit targeting Ukrainian infantry in a forest strip in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Claims the attack was successful due to short flight time and surprised the two Ukrainian soldiers.
Assessment: This suggests the CONTINUED FIGHTING and RUSSIAN EFFORTS to TARGET UKRAINIAN INFANTRY in the KRASNOARMEYSK REGION.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:46): Reports threat of ballistic weapon use for Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:48): Reports threat of ballistic weapon use for Poltava.
Assessment: Reports are widespread, and indicate a strong air attack may happen.
ODESA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (07:37) Reports that an energy facility operated by DTEK was attacked again.
ТАСС (07:57): Confirms damage to the seventh DTEK facility in three weeks in the Odesa region.
Assessment: This confirms that the repeated target has sustained damages.
OTHER REPORTS
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (07:43): Reports a strike on a Russian position in the occupied part of Zaporizhia.
Colonelcassad (07:45): Reports on the attacks to Ukrainian territories from 7th of March to 8th of March.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (07:45): Meeting between developers and representatives of combat brigades took place.
Alex Parker Returns (08:00): Reports the cutoff of Ukrainian satellite imagery.
Север.Реалии (08:00): Reports on drone attacks in Russia.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (08:01): Reports that another enemy howitzer was destroyed.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (08:01): Reports on the Kyiv region stating 4 of 13 enemy drones were destroyed.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST, with CONFIRMED ACTIVE RUSSIAN OPERATIONS to LIBERATE SUDZHA and REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES BLAMING THE US for the CRISIS. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION.
CONFIRMED DEATH TOLL OF THREE MEN in the BOHODUKHIV STRIKE, with FOUR DRONES USED causing a LARGE FIRE.
CONTINUED DEVASTATING ATTACK on DOBROPILLIA, with 11 DEAD and 30 INJURED (including 5 CHILDREN). CONFIRMED "DOUBLE-TAP" STRIKE targeting EMERGENCY RESPONDERS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED DAMAGE to the SEVENTH DTEK FACILITY in THREE WEEKS in the ODESA REGION. This represents a SYSTEMATIC CAMPAIGN to DEGRADE UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING in the POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION, with RUSSIAN FORCES reportedly ADVANCING towards BOHATYR and ROZLYV.
CONFIRMED INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACKS across ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
IMMINENT THREAT of AIR STRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE. NEW THREAT OF BALLISTIC WEAPON USE in CHERKASY, KIROVOHRAD, DNIPROPETROVSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and POLTAVAREGIONS.
All other previously identified high-priority issues remain relevant.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT to SOUTHERN UKRAINE (from CRIMEA) has ENDED, but the REPORTED EXPLOSION IN MYKOLAIV requires INVESTIGATION.
CONFIRMED CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN TERRITORY, with 31 DRONES INTERCEPTED OVERNIGHT and TWO PEOPLE INJURED in a NEW ATTACK in KURSK OBLAST.
All other previously identified medium-priority issues remain relevant.
LOW PRIORITY:
POTENTIAL US SANCTIONS RELIEF on RUSSIAN ENERGY. Requires further verification and analysis.
All other previously identified low-priority issues remain relevant.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
URGENTLY RESPOND TO THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
CLOSELY MONITOR PROPAGANDA EFFORTS and DEVELOP COUNTER-NARRATIVES to ADDRESS UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of US RESPONSIBILITY.
ADDRESS THE BOHODUKHIV STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT and PROVIDE SUPPORT to AFFECTED CIVILIANS.
GATHER EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.
RESPOND TO THE CONTINUED ATTACKS ON DTEK FACILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND REPAIR EFFORTS.
IMPLEMENT MEASURES to MITIGATE DISRUPTIONS to ENERGY SUPPLIES.
PRIORITIZE PROTECTION of REMAINING DTEK FACILITIES.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
PRIORITIZE DEFENSE against BALLISTIC MISSILES in CHERKASY, KIROVOHRAD, DNIPROPETROVSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and POLTAVAREGIONS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO FIGHTING IN THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
PRIORITIZE EFFORTS to COUNTER RUSSIAN FPV DRONE ATTACKS.
The situation continues to be EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The RAPID DETERIORATION in KURSK OBLAST, the CONTINUED ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and the NEW THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS require IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The PROPAGANDA BATTLE surrounding the KURSK SITUATION adds ANOTHER LAYER OF COMPLEXITY.
