Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 07:37 UTC

Changes and New Information (07:07 UTC - 07:37 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE NEAR SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (07:07 UTC): Reports Russian forces launched an offensive from Makhnovka towards Sudzha. States "The battle will be difficult, we pray for the fighters."
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A NEW AXIS OF ADVANCE in the KURSK OBLAST OFFENSIVE. The target of SUDZHA is SIGNIFICANT as it is a MAJOR TOWN and TRANSPORTATION HUB. This INCREASES THE THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in the region and FURTHER SUPPORTS the assessment of a POTENTIAL COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in KURSK OBLAST. The statement about a "difficult battle" suggests EXPECTED STRONG RESISTANCE.

2. KURSK OBLAST SITUATION UPDATE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • WarGonzo (07:07 UTC): Reports the main focus in Kursk Oblast is cutting off Ukrainian logistics. Claims Russian forces are 1.5km from an asphalt road. Reports Russian successes in Nikolskoye and Viktorovka. Attributes Ukrainian defense collapse to the redirection of reserves to the Pokrovsk area.
     • РБК-Україна (07:10 UTC): Reports, citing The Telegraph, that 10,000 Ukrainian troops are threatened with encirclement in Kursk, that Russian forces have taken Sudzha.
   • Assessment: This reinforces previous claims of the offensive in the region.

3. DONETSK FRONT UPDATES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • WarGonzo (07:07 UTC): Reports Russian advances towards Bohatyr and Rozlyv. Claims Ukrainian forces are deploying additional drone units due to personnel shortages. Reports intense fighting in Kostiantynopil, with Russian assaults on the western outskirts, suggesting imminent capture. Claims Ukrainian forces are focusing on defending Pokrovsk, deploying reserves, and conducting counterattacks.
     • Военкор Котенок (07:13): Confirms that Ukraine has been removed from Kostiantynopil.
   • Assessment: This suggests the continued fighting in the region.

4. ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • WarGonzo (07:07 UTC): Reports no major changes, with continued fighting for strong points.
   • Assessment: Status quo, with continued conflict in the region.

5. CHASIV YAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * WarGonzo (07:07 UTC): Reports no significant changes, but continued activity.

   • Assessment: Status quo, with continued conflict in the region.

6. KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (07:08 UTC): Reports actions in the Liptsevsky and Volchansky areas. Claims destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel, including drone launch points, antennas, a D-20 howitzer, and a "Leleka-100" drone.
   • Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED FIGHTING and RUSSIAN EFFORTS to TARGET UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS AND DRONE CAPABILITIES in the KHARKIV REGION.

7. DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (07:10 UTC): Reports 31 Ukrainian drones shot down overnight: 26 over Krasnodar Krai, 3 over Bryansk Oblast, and 1 each over Leningrad and Yaroslavl Oblasts.
     • Colonelcassad (07:23): Adds to the previous report, that an additional 43 drones were shot down the day before.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN TERRITORY, including areas FAR FROM THE FRONT LINES (Leningrad and Yaroslavl Oblasts). The HIGH NUMBER OF DRONES suggests a MAJOR EFFORT by UKRAINE to STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA.

8. ATTACK ON OIL REFINERY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• STERNENKO (07:12): Reports that drones attacked an oil refinery in Leningrad overnight.

• **Assessment:** This corroborates with earlier reports.
  

9. AIR STRIKE WARNING (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:16 UTC): Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. Threat of air strikes.
     • Later (07:26) reported guided bombs (KABs) on Donetsk.
   • Assessment: This INDICATES AN IMMINENT THREAT of AIR STRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE.

10. DOBROPILLIA STRIKE UPDATE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Офіс Генерального прокурора (07:34 UTC): Updates casualty figures from the Dobropillia strike: 11 dead, 30 injured (including 5 children). Confirms the attack was a combination of Iskander-M missiles, Tornado-S MLRS, and Geran-2 drones.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE HIGH CASUALTY FIGURES and the USE OF MULTIPLE WEAPON SYSTEMS in the ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, underscoring the SEVERITY of the INCIDENT.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE AXIS targeting SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST. This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in the REGION.
  • CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in KURSK OBLAST, with REPORTED SUCCESSES and CLAIMS OF CUTTING OFF UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. URGENT VERIFICATION AND RESPONSE are CRITICAL. The claimed encirclement of 10,000 Ukrainian troops requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
  • CONFIRMED DEVASTATING ATTACK on DOBROPILLIA, with 11 DEAD and 30 INJURED (including 5 CHILDREN). EXTENSIVE DAMAGE and a SECONDARY STRIKE on EMERGENCY RESPONDERS. The attack involved MULTIPLE WEAPON SYSTEMS, including ISKANDER-M MISSILES, TORNADO-S MLRS, and GERAN-2 DRONES.
  • INTENSE AND FLUID FIGHTING in the POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION, with GAINS AND LOSSES on BOTH SIDES. UKRAINIAN FORCES have REGAINED some ground, but the situation remains HIGHLY VOLATILE. RUSSIAN FORCES are reportedly ADVANCING towards BOHATYR and ROZLYV.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACKS across ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, with a VERY HIGH NUMBER OF DRONE ATTACKS. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN SHAHEED DRONE ATTACKS overnight, damaging a PRIVATE ENTERPRISE and FOUR APARTMENT BUILDINGS. NO CASUALTIES REPORTED.
    • CONFIRMED guided aerial bombs (KAB) on the SUMY REGION.
      • CONFIRMED guided aerial bombs (KABs) on the DONETSK REGION.
  • IMMINENT THREAT of AIR STRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE.

• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST, now targeting MALAYA LOKNYA. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED. * CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS impacting BOTH UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. * UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY (Belgorod Oblast), TARGETING A CIVILIAN VEHICLE. * CONFIRMED MINE ATTACK on an ENEMY ARMORED CAR.

  • CONFIRMED attack on an oil refinery in Russia. * All other previously identified high-priority issues remain relevant.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT to SOUTHERN UKRAINE (from CRIMEA) has ENDED, but the REPORTED EXPLOSION IN MYKOLAIV requires INVESTIGATION.
  • Threat of air strikes persists.
  • CONFIRMED CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN TERRITORY, with 31 DRONES INTERCEPTED OVERNIGHT.
  • Airstrikes continue on Ukrainian territories.
  • UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT confirms LIMITED RUSSIAN NAVAL PRESENCE in the BLACK SEA but a MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT from the MEDITERRANEAN SEA.
  • All other previously identified medium-priority issues remain relevant.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • POTENTIAL US SANCTIONS RELIEF on RUSSIAN ENERGY. Requires further verification and analysis.
  • All other previously identified low-priority issues remain relevant.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY RESPOND TO THE NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE AXIS TARGETING SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the situation in SUDZHA and surrounding areas.
   • ASSESS the STRENGTH AND COMPOSITION of the RUSSIAN FORCES advancing towards SUDZHA.
   • IDENTIFY POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and REINFORCEMENT ROUTES.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT IMMEDIATE MEASURES to COUNTER the RUSSIAN ADVANCE, including POTENTIAL COUNTERATTACKS, REINFORCEMENTS, or CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary.

2. CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE OVERALL SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS for ALL UNITS in KURSK OBLAST.
   • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR the situation, paying CLOSE ATTENTION to RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS near MALAYA LOKNYA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, ZHURAVKA, BASOVKA, NIKOLSKOYE, VIKTOROVKA, and MAKHNOVKA.
   • PRIORITIZE EFFORTS to DISRUPT RUSSIAN LOGISTICS and PREVENT THE ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
   • URGENTLY INVESTIGATE the reported encirclement of 10,000 Ukrainian troops.

3. RESPOND TO THE DOBROPILLIA AND BOHODUKHIV STRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CONTINUE RESCUE OPERATIONS in DOBROPILLIA.
   • PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
   • ASSESS DAMAGE to INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • GATHER EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES, particularly the SECONDARY STRIKE on EMERGENCY RESPONDERS in DOBROPILLIA.

4. URGENTLY VERIFY AND RESPOND TO THE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KRASNOARMEYSK (POKROVSK) (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the reported 1.5 km advance.
   • ANALYZE the provided coordinates (48.092068, 36.996643) using ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS.
   • ASSESS the IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in the area.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT COUNTERMEASURES as needed.

5. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO FIGHTING IN THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS for ALL UNITS in the POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION.
   • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR the situation, paying CLOSE ATTENTION to RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS near UDACHNE, NOVOSERGEEVKA, KOTLINO, ZVEREVO, PESCHANOE, and SHEVCHENKO.
   • Specifically monitor activity near BOHATYR and ROZLYV.
   • BE PREPARED to RESPOND RAPIDLY to CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES, including POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES or RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGHS.

6. RESPOND TO THE INTENSIFIED ATTACKS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ENHANCE AIR DEFENSE COVERAGE across ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, prioritizing the protection of CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • DEPLOY COUNTER-DRONE SYSTEMS to MITIGATE the HIGH NUMBER OF DRONE ATTACKS.
   • ASSESS DAMAGE to CIVILIAN PROPERTY and PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to AFFECTED POPULATIONS.

7. CONTINUE TO COUNTER DRONE THREATS ON BOTH SIDES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AREAS, particularly in regions experiencing RECENT ATTACKS.
   • PRIORITIZE DEFENSE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE both in UKRAINE and INSIDE RUSSIA (if attempting to target Russian military assets).

8. RESPOND TO THE BELGOROD OBLAST DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION AND ACTION):

   • INVESTIGATE THE CIRCUMSTANCES of the DRONE ATTACK on the CIVILIAN VEHICLE.
   • ASSESS IF THIS REPRESENTS A DELIBERATE TARGETING OF CIVILIANS or COLLATERAL DAMAGE.

9. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO THE USE OF MINES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Conduct sweeps to secure areas for civilians.
   • Maintain sweeps of areas where soldiers are stationed.

10. INVESTIGATE MYKOLAIV EXPLOSION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Determine the cause and impact of the reported explosion.
    • Assess if it was related to the ballistic missile threat or another incident.

11. ANALYZE POTENTIAL US SANCTIONS RELIEF (LOW PRIORITY, LONG-TERM ANALYSIS):

    • GATHER ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on the reported US consideration of sanctions relief on the Russian energy sector.
    • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on the NEGOTIATING LANDSCAPE and UKRAINIAN INTERESTS.
    • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for various scenarios.

12. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

13. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL AIR STRIKES IN EASTERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in THREATENED AREAS.
    • ENSURE AIR RAID SHELTERS are ACCESSIBLE AND STOCKED.
    • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.

The situation has DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY with the CONFIRMED NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE AXIS targeting SUDZHA in KURSK OBLAST. This, combined with the CONTINUED INTENSIFIED OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the REGION, the DEVASTATING ATTACK on DOBROPILLIA, and the ONGOING FIGHTING in POKROVSK, creates an EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND URGENT SITUATION requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The THREAT OF AIR STRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE further INCREASES THE URGENCY.